Davis is pretty awful imo, his whip is up around the 1.6 mark, I think the only reason his era isnt around 7 is because hes had a lot of games pitching in some of those pitcher friendly NL west parks (LA, SD, SF) His era is in fact a whole point higher at home 4.75 vs 3.75. The Cubs are a lineup that could punish a pitcher like Davis.
Lilly has been remarkably consistent all season, just take a look at his home / road stats theyre virtually identical. The Dbacks really dont hit lefties too well, the Cubs look a really strong play for me tonight.
Ive just taken a look at some of the teams theyve faced in the past month and that success vs LHP could be explained away. Im not going to look at exactly WHO theyve been facing but theyve played the likes of the Dodgers,Giants and Cards, @ Pirates and @ Coors, theyre all teams that havent been playing well (except for the Rockies but then you have the Coors effect)
Tonight theyre facing a legit pitcher I dont see them having that kind of success.