1. #1
    Snowball
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    Tracking this Strategy...

    Going to track the following for an edge:

    Only teams off a one-run loss in their last game.
    Sorted by win/loss result as

    1. team
    2. home
    3. away
    4. favorite
    5. underdog
    6. 1st 5-inn.

    Today's plays:
    Dodgers,Cubs,Orioles,Tigers,Mets,Mariner s.
    Tomorrow: Rockies, (yet to be determined).
    Last edited by Snowball; 04-08-10 at 10:33 AM.
    Points Awarded:

    iceman8847 gave Snowball 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    fjordo
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    Hope it goes well for you snowball. I'll keep an eye on your thread.

  3. #3
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by fjordo View Post
    Hope it goes well for you snowball. I'll keep an eye on your thread.
    like all systems, it's going to take a while to build stats.
    last year I played a system based on pitchers, it ran about 68%, but was breakeven in money because of favorites winning more than dogs.
    Hopefully this one delivers better returns.

  4. #4
    Snowball
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    Yesterday's Winners:
    Cubs (underdog,away,1st 5)
    Dodgers (fav,away,1st 5)
    Orioles (underdog,away)
    Tigers (underdog,away)

    Yesterday's Losers:
    Mets (fav,home,1st 5)
    Mariners (fav,away,1st 5)

    Today's Plays: Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies, Rays.

  5. #5
    Snowball
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    Yesterday's Winners:
    Rockies (home,fav,1st 5)
    Cardinals (away,fav)
    Phillies (away,fav,1st 5)
    Rays (home,underdog,1st 5)

    Yesterday's Losers:
    none.

    Today's Plays: Cubs,Orioles,Braves,Red Sox,White Sox,Brewers.
    Points Awarded:

    iceman8847 gave Snowball 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  6. #6
    Snowball
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    Yesterday's Winners:
    Cubs (away,underdog)
    Braves (away,fav)
    Red Sox (away,fav)
    White Sox (1st 5 only)
    Yesterday's Losers:
    White Sox (home,underdog)
    Orioles (home,fav,1st 5)
    Brewers (home,fav,1st 5)

    I'm still compiling all the stats separately so as to establish trends.
    Too early for that, although right now it's 11-5 on whole games.

    Sunday Plays:
    White Sox, Reds, Mets, Rangers, Dodgers, Athletics, Rockies.
    Last edited by Snowball; 04-11-10 at 12:37 AM.

  7. #7
    Snowball
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    Yesterday's Winners:
    White Sox (home,fav)
    Reds (home,fav)
    Rangers (home,fav)
    Rockies (home,fav)
    Athletics (away,underdog)

    Yesterday's Losers:
    Mets (home,fav)
    Dodgers (away,fav)

    system record: 16-7

    Today two of the picks ( Cardinals and Astros ) are playing each other.
    I will not count this game toward the record, or give either team as a play.
    I will merely tabulate the results.

    Today's Plays: Twins, Indians.

  8. #8
    southpaw74
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    Good luck snowball...hard to say if this system is just getting lucky so far but it's cool to see how well it's doing!! Thanks for keeping track

  9. #9
    Snowball
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    it is paying so far, although i believe it will get more selective when i can show how certain teams are more likely to win .. just not enough games to establish that for at least another month.. good thing it's winning in the meantime. i am maintaining a record book by team after a one-run loss; as favorite, underdog, home, away and even 1st 5, although i may drop 1st 5.

  10. #10
    Wilforth
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    Interesting.

  11. #11
    Snowball
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    Yesterday's Winners:
    Twins (home,underdog,1st 5)
    Cardinals (away,fav,1st 5)

    Yesterday's Losers:
    Astros (home,fav,1st 5)
    Indians (home,dog, 1st 5)

    System Total: 18-9

    Today's Picks: Dodgers, Marlins, Blue Jays

  12. #12
    Snowball
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    Yesterday's Winners:
    Dodgers (home,fav,1st 5)
    Blue Jays (home,fav,1st 5)

    Yesterday's Losers:
    Marlins (home,fav,1st 5) extra inn.

    System Total 20-10

    Today's Plays: Royals, Giants

  13. #13
    Snowball
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    Today's Winners:
    Royals (away,underdog,tie 1st 5)
    Giants (home,fav,1st 5)

    Today's Losers:
    None

    System Total: 22 wins, 10 losses.

    Tomorrow's Picks T.B.D.

    Points Awarded:

    iceman8847 gave Snowball 10 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  14. #14
    stealthyburrito
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Today's Winners:
    Royals (away,underdog,tie 1st 5)
    Giants (home,fav,1st 5)

    Today's Losers:
    None

    System Total: 22 wins, 10 losses.

    Tomorrow's Picks T.B.D.

    wow, working out great so far. keep feeding them winners

  15. #15
    Snowball
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    The system says 3 heavy visiting underdogs today. All games are afternoon matinees.
    Perhaps this will be good for at least one of them to win. If just one wins, the overall unit loss will not be that bad (it would be even at 1-2 if it's the Astros). Astros have to win their first game sooner or later although I agree St. Louis is an unlikely place to get it.
    All three of these teams are 0-1 each in the system. Later as more stats are developed, we will customize picks. Not Yet.

    Astros (1:40pm) +200
    Brewers (2:20pm) +160
    Mets (3:10pm) +180

  16. #16
    Wilforth
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    The system says 3 heavy visiting underdogs today. All games are afternoon matinees.
    Perhaps this will be good for at least one of them to win. If just one wins, the overall unit loss will not be that bad (it would be even at 1-2 if it's the Astros). Astros have to win their first game sooner or later although I agree St. Louis is an unlikely place to get it.
    All three of these teams are 0-1 each in the system. Later as more stats are developed, we will customize picks. Not Yet.

    Astros (1:40pm) +200
    Brewers (2:20pm) +160
    Mets (3:10pm) +180
    The Mets may disappoint you but I really like the Brewers and Astros.

  17. #17
    oopfish
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    snowball GL

  18. #18
    talnted
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    System seems to be rolling right now. May tail todays picks

  19. #19
    Snowball
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    Who tailed ? All bets won for combined +540 !

    Today's Winners:
    Astros (away,dog,1st 5)
    Mets (away,dog,1st 5)
    Brewers (away,dog,1st 5 tie)

    System Total: 25 wins, 10 losses.

    Tomorrow: T.B.D.
    Last edited by Snowball; 04-15-10 at 07:58 PM.

  20. #20
    dodger33
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    pretty legit... might have to take a closer look at this. good luck snowball

  21. #21
    Snowball
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    Today's System Plays: Rangers, Diamondbacks
    Points Awarded:

    dodger33 gave Snowball 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  22. #22
    dodger33
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    Thanks for posting them!

  23. #23
    EXhoosier10
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    How do you decide between full games and first 5?

  24. #24
    Snowball
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    Quote Originally Posted by EXhoosier10 View Post
    How do you decide between full games and first 5?
    i am building a record book for each team.. all plays are full game, but i am also tracking 1st 5 inn, so an edge may present itself once we have enough games to start pro-rating picks.. once the database is large enough, i will post it.

    in today's picks, the only one i am actually betting is Arizona. The Rangers I will not bet against, but also not for, as they are at Yankee Stadium and CC Sabathia is starting.

    p.s. thanks a lot to those who give me points. I am taking points more seriously, after all you can get nice things with them like gift certificates.

  25. #25
    tonyp0387
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    this system is working great

  26. #26
    Snowball
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    The system went 0-2 yesterday. D-Backs won the 1st 5 but their closer choked.
    Rangers couldn't touch Sabathia.

    Yesterday's Win: Diamondbacks 1st 5
    Yesterdays Losses: Rangers, Diamondbacks.

    System Total: 25 wins, 12 losses.

    Today's System Pick: Mets
    Last edited by Snowball; 04-18-10 at 08:48 AM.

  27. #27
    Snowball
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    Yesterday system went 1-0. I am surprised the Mets beat Cardinals on the road. It sure took long enough, 20 innings. Cards must be embarrassed.

    System Record: 26 wins, 12 losses.

    Today's Picks:
    Cubs (home,fav)
    Royals (away,dog)
    Orioles (away,dog)
    Cardinals (home,fav)
    White Sox (away,dog)
    Reds (away,fav)
    Red Sox (home,fav)

  28. #28
    Snowball
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    note: dropping 1st 5 inn. stat. No clear difference, relies on starting pitching which varies.
    the system win/loss total contains no 1st 5 inn. outcomes, only whole outcomes already.

    Yesterday's Winners:
    Royals (away,dog)
    Orioles (away,dog)
    Cardinals (home,fav)

    Yesterday's Losers:
    Cubs (home,fav)
    Red Sox (home,fav)
    Reds (away,fav)
    White Sox (away,dog)

    The Royals and Orioles were such dogs that the system was positive yesterday.
    At the end of the month I will post all team recs.

    Totals: 29 wins, 16 losses

    Today's Plays:
    Cubs
    (R.Wells @ Mets, away,fav-125, 2-1 system rec.)
    Rockies
    (A.Cook @ Nationals,away,fav-150, 2-0 system rec.)
    Giants
    (M.Cain @ Padres,away,fav-130, 1-0 system rec.)
    Last edited by Snowball; 04-19-10 at 10:25 AM.

  29. #29
    BetfairUser
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    hey snowball, looks like your system is working pretty well - any chance you can let us know how it's going profit-wise though, cos even tho your W-L ratio is great, you could still be losing... thanks

  30. #30
    syn^
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    He has to be making good profit. He's been hitting a lot of underdogs.

  31. #31
    Snowball
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    The system went 0-3 yesterday, worst day ever.
    BetFairuser - although i haven't been tracking the lines on each game, favorite/underdog is tracked.

    System Record is now 29-19. Of the 29 wins, 14 were underdogs.

    Yesterday's Losses: Cubs(awa,fav), Rockies(away,fav), Giants(away,fav).

    Today only one pick: Giants (away,fav)

  32. #32
    Snowball
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    Yesterday's Loss: Giants (away,fav)

    Record: 29-20

    Today's Picks:
    Royals (away,dog)
    Rangers (away,dog)
    Phillies (away,fav)
    Tigers (away,dog)
    Giants (away,dog)

  33. #33
    fly fisher
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    Snowball. Hey I know this is a baseball thread but wanted to say a "Hell of a call on Boston yesterday" I got home to late so couldn't take advantage, but you nailed that. Congrats hope you made a lot on that one yesterday cuz you deserved it. Didn't realize you did baseball. I had a lot of fun following you in NCAA this year though. Good luck man and "Yale to the Moon" Ha Ha. Take care.

  34. #34
    playersonly69
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    It is easier to just handicap the games for baseball

  35. #35
    Snowball
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    From now on, I'm only going to track win/loss immediately following a one-run loss
    on a per team, hom or away basis. The reason is that the majority of plays have been established as underdogs, and it doesn't matter if they are dogs or not (it doesn't influence their win/loss/home/away). The stat sheet is building, in a while I'll be posting their individual records.

    Yesterday's Winners:
    Royals (away, dog)
    Phillies (away,fav)
    Tigers (away,dog)

    Yesterday's Losses:
    Rangers (away,dog)
    Giants (away,dog)

    Overall Record: 32-22

    Today's System Picks:
    Rangers (away), Angels (home), Marlins (away).
    next game they play: Blue Jays.

    p.s. yes I do cap and play other games, but as long as this stays net positive i think it's worthwhile.
    when I have more games we will start comparing teams.

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