1. #1
    The HG
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    Sept 29 Ganchalysis: Early Leans and Plays

    Florida ML (+205): I don't think the value here is as clear-cut as it has been recently going against the Mets, but I still think there is some. Seddon could easily get shelled, and the Mets might break out of their losing in a big way. But Maine has not been too sharp as the season winds down, and this line is still just too high IMO.


    TB/Toronto Under 10 (+100): Litsch has pitched pretty effectively in general this year, and Jackson has shown signs of realizing his potential a bit as well. The lineups probably won't be too terribly formidable, so I think there is value with this highish total at even money.


    Washington ML (+185): Neither starting pitcher is likely to be too effective here, and if the game becomes a back-and-forth free-for-all, Washington should be in it to the end, so I see them as having value as a huge dog.


    Arizona ML (+145): Redman is likely to be very vulnerable here, and at this high line I think Arizona has value. Gonzales isn't the greatest he but is serviceable. The 5-inning line might be a better play on these factors.

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    I'm taking Florida with that nice price myself Mr.HG.

  3. #3
    The HG
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    Adding

    Milwaukee ML (+140): Milwaukee isn't going to just roll over for this one, and Young has been struggling recently, particularly away from home. SD as a big road fave is unjustified IMO.


    Wash/Philly Over 10.5 (-110): Both starters are sub-par, and the offenses should be able to take advantage today. I think this total is simply a notch or two off, the primary factors involved are no secret, and I think the likely total offensive production is being underestimated a bit with this line.
    Last edited by The HG; 09-29-07 at 02:25 PM.

  4. #4
    The HG
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    Adding

    Arizona/Colorado Over 10.5 (-105): Both starters have real question marks - Redman is terrible in general and Gonzales suffered from a blister last start that may not be better yet. There's good value with the over here IMO.

  5. #5
    bigboydan
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    I wasn't going to play it but I ended up taking Arizona myself Mr.HG.

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