Pokernut said in a post a few days ago that blindly betting the OVER in baseball might be a good play because of, what he called "rubber arms" for veterans and lots of young pitchers just called up from the minors.
I thought it might be interesting to see what kind of ERA veteran pitchers had in the last month of the season the last few seasons.
Does anyone know where to find such data?
I'm not sure how to handicap rookies just called up from the minors in the month of September. I'm thinking that a lot of teams which are not in the pennant race anymore call up these young pitchers to "get a look at them" and not necessarily because they are a phenom.
Perhaps one way to do this would be to look at all pitchers ERA for the month of September who have below a certain number of innings pitched. Then compare their major league ERA for the month of September to their minor league ERA and calculate a factor to mulitply x their minor league ERA to apply to all rookies in the month of September for the current year.
Too late to be much use this year, only a few games left, but next year might be worthwhile.
Anyway, just a thought.