1. 04-04-10 01:49 PM #1
    stingyrivers
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    The Official Stingyrivers No Home Sweep Chase Picks Thread 2010

    Hi All... Let's color outside the lines and make a winner out of it....

    All those following and taking the lead as well in the discussion thread know the deal here and the backtesting and research done.... If you havent seen it... this is a season long basic A, B, C chase generally against a home team getting swept in a home series...

    As I stated earlier, the system runs from Opening night through Sept. 1... that is 22 weeks of picks... I have a goal of 150 plays on the season, that works out to on average 7 per week for the first 20 weeks and 5 plays each of the last two weeks.... I would like for this thread to be for the picks only and their tracking, and have all discussion and brainstorming through the summer continue in the discussion thread already started...

    A lot of people seemed to like the betting progression I put together using compound interest to have a huge year if we dodge any sweeps... This is what I am going to follow...

    150 plays.... all A bets will be to win one unit...

    after every 10 wins, I am going to up my unit by 50%... so if the season goes to plan that will be 15 unit increases through the season...

    I am starting the season small... starting bankroll is $ 200

    starting unit = 10 dollars

    Honestly, if you were starting with a 10 dollar unit, I would recommend for this that your bankroll be at least in the 400-500 dollar range, but I gots no choice so, it will be what it is... I also recommend uping the unit after 20 wins instead of 10, but I am going to go big or go home this season... I suggest everyone tailing do as they feel completely comfortable with... by the way for those out there fading me, most of the world figures you to get rich doing so

    I will post the plays each day and grade the play after the games as well as update the bankroll/unit size etc....

    Let's make this a winner and all have a summer to remember...

    first pick coming very soon... most of you know what it will be....
    Last edited by stingyrivers; 04-04-10 at 01:52 PM.
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  2. 04-04-10 02:07 PM #2
    saints7011
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    GL this season stingy , I've never played a chase system , but will be following this thread closely...
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  3. 04-04-10 03:48 PM #3
    Patrick Adams
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    What's the historical record of home teams being swept..and are there any teams in particular u will stay away from when playing a home series (KC PIT etc)
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  4. 04-04-10 04:01 PM #4
    reverend
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    Lets do this!

    It is time
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  5. 04-04-10 04:15 PM #5
    Stealinhome
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    Boom!
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  6. 04-04-10 04:33 PM #6
    SkivChef
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    I'm In!
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  7. 04-04-10 04:51 PM #7
    trevlyn1983
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    Let it rain for us all .
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  8. 04-04-10 04:56 PM #8
    balls2wall
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Adams View Post
    What's the historical record of home teams being swept..and are there any teams in particular u will stay away from when playing a home series (KC PIT etc)


    There is a whole thread discussing this (two actually). It is all laid out there. It is basically fading the weakest teams and playing the best.

    He wants this to be picks only and the other for discussion.


    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-h...ep-thread.html
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  9. 04-04-10 04:58 PM #9
    balls2wall
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    GL Stingy and all who are doing it


    My plays will be similar, but I am not playing this version to the T


    let's do it
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  10. 04-04-10 05:43 PM #10
    stingyrivers
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    Thanks everyone... let's do this...

    starting bankroll: 200.00


    April 4th -

    (A) Bet: Boston Redsox 11.60 to win 10.00
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  11. 04-04-10 05:46 PM #11
    SkivChef
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    I'm confused, 9-28,29, and 30 the red soxs got swept at home by blue jays.
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  12. 04-04-10 05:49 PM #12
    SkivChef
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    was this filtered because no 1 or 2 starters pitched?
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  13. 04-04-10 05:50 PM #13
    SkivChef
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    should i be asking these questions in the other thread?
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  14. 04-04-10 05:52 PM #14
    Cosmo213
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    Yes, this thread is just for posting plays and tracking purposes.
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  15. 04-04-10 07:09 PM #15
    reverend
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkivChef View Post
    I'm confused, 9-28,29, and 30 the red soxs got swept at home by blue jays.
    system ends after august
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  16. 04-04-10 07:09 PM #16
    reverend
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    I am on boston ML (-116) as well
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  17. 04-05-10 12:51 AM #17
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    Quote Originally Posted by stingyrivers View Post
    Thanks everyone... let's do this...

    starting bankroll: 200.00


    April 4th -

    (A) Bet: Boston Redsox 11.60 to win 10.00
    nice win, i got this one too. what are we playing tomorrow?
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  18. 04-05-10 07:15 AM #18
    stingyrivers
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    ....
    Quote Originally Posted by stingyrivers View Post
    Thanks everyone... let's do this...

    starting bankroll: 200.00


    April 4th -

    (A) Bet: Boston Redsox 11.60 to win 10.00 ....WIN series over


    New Bankroll: 210.00 ....... 1 - 0 (+10.00)

    plays for today will be posted by 11 am eastern....

    good start
    Last edited by stingyrivers; 04-05-10 at 07:27 AM.
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  19. 04-05-10 07:33 AM #19
    dvb02
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    Stingy, I am already down with Arizona. I am sure that will be 1 of your plays.
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  20. 04-05-10 07:40 AM #20
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    ahh, I hope you start posting your picks earlier. I have to leave for work in about an hour, so I have to have my picks in by 9:30 Eastern Time. Any reason you aren't going to post them the night before? I guess I'm going with PHI, CWS, ARI, LAA. I'm hoping you post your picks within the next 30 mins.
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  21. 04-05-10 07:52 AM #21
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    Only series of those I"m concerned about is LAA
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  22. 04-05-10 07:55 AM #22
    stingyrivers
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    I am just trying to take due time without any rush aspect.... but I definitely dont want to keep anyone in the dark at least of what I am sure will be in the mix... and nice work jax... those four are my plays for today... Phi, CWS, Ariz, LAA those are the four I got circled... I am also considering, but likely wont pull the trigger... ST L and LAD... but considering they are outside the scope and I want to keep exceptions to the rule to a minumum, they likely wont make the list... so you are on the ball man, those four are what I had penciled in... for the most part these picks for this strategy pretty much jump off the page, at least in the home openers... If you play those four we are pretty much going to have the same card today.... I will probably start to have them up before the morning as the season progresses

    and LAA is obviously the weakest play, but remember... we are betting LAA wins one game, not necessarily game one... and LAA, although they have some questions to answer this season... in the past three seasons, they are 51 - 0 in this system
    Last edited by stingyrivers; 04-05-10 at 08:00 AM.
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  23. 04-05-10 08:15 AM #23
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    Quote Originally Posted by stingyrivers View Post
    I am just trying to take due time without any rush aspect.... but I definitely dont want to keep anyone in the dark at least of what I am sure will be in the mix... and nice work jax... those four are my plays for today... Phi, CWS, Ariz, LAA those are the four I got circled... I am also considering, but likely wont pull the trigger... ST L and LAD... but considering they are outside the scope and I want to keep exceptions to the rule to a minumum, they likely wont make the list... so you are on the ball man, those four are what I had penciled in... for the most part these picks for this strategy pretty much jump off the page, at least in the home openers... If you play those four we are pretty much going to have the same card today.... I will probably start to have them up before the morning as the season progresses

    and LAA is obviously the weakest play, but remember... we are betting LAA wins one game, not necessarily game one... and LAA, although they have some questions to answer this season... in the past three seasons, they are 51 - 0 in this system
    Awesome man! I have those 4 picks locked and ready to go . I was also really considering LAD. I don't see how they possibly lose 3 games to the Pirates.
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  24. 04-05-10 09:34 AM #24
    jolmscheid
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    Let's go Phi, CWS, Ariz, LAA
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  25. 04-05-10 09:43 AM #25
    Patrick Adams
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    Any value in the -1.5 on these teams? Or just stick to the ML for the system?
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  26. 04-05-10 09:48 AM #26
    stingyrivers
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    starting bankroll: 200.00


    April 5th -

    (A) Bet: Philadelphia Phillies 20.00 to win 10.00

    (A) Bet: Chicago White Sox 16.00 to win 10.00

    (A) Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks 18.50 to win 10.00

    (A) Bet: L.A. Angels 13.00 to win 10.00


    Current Bankroll: 210.00 ....... 1 - 0 (+10.00)

    until any problems or issues arise, I would say let's keep it simple and stick to the plan...
    Last edited by stingyrivers; 04-05-10 at 10:00 AM.
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  27. 04-05-10 09:55 AM #27
    do5000
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    good luck guys!
    let's do it.
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  28. 04-05-10 10:01 AM #28
    Hebodk
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    Hi Stingy, I'm concerned about the size of your bankroll. You probably need a bigger bankroll too make that amount of chases.

    I'm chasing over/under in 4 games - my unitsize is also 10$ - my starting bankroll is 1200$.

    GL with your system !
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  29. 04-05-10 10:11 AM #29
    SparJMU
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    Stingy, why do you refuse to listen to those with more experience than you? You are in way over your head here, and I can guarantee that this sytem fails. Save all of these newbies their money and stop encouraging this chase thread.

    Anyone who is new to betting on baseball and is falling for this, BEWARE. It is extremely flawed.
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  30. 04-05-10 10:11 AM #30
    stingyrivers
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    agreed... like I said in my first post I totally know that 10 dollar unit is way huge doing this with a 200 bankroll... essentially by trying this overly aggressive... pretty much by doing this, the issue comes into play in having to chase, so I am pretty much banking on a lot, a lot, a lot of game one and two wins at the beginning of the season... so I suppose based on my financial status, that is where I am looking for a little luck
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  31. 04-05-10 10:16 AM #31
    stingyrivers
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    thanks for clogging my thread sparJMU with this... but I am not insisting anything... people who have been following along asked out of curiosity for me to put my plays up... I am not suggesting anyone tail this.... If I am flawed, I would hope I go flawed on my own...

    and as to the substance of your statement.... I respectfully disagree, I would suggest you think outside the box on rare occasion....

    and if you are right, and I am a blithering idiot begging to lose money... I suppose I will be way over my head and lose TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS wow... that will be quite the downward spiral in life....

    mostly I cant stand the presumptions people make on this forum.... You dont know me from a hole in the wall so you have no idea about my experience, or even my age for that matter....

    fade me and get rich.... that is all I have to say... if you are convinced I lose for certain, than you have a blueprint for success in fading me... either way, good luck
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  32. 04-05-10 10:32 AM #32
    khaden
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    Stingy,

    can you give me the top teams we are playing at home and the bottom teams we are playing against on the road. In my records for today I have the Rangers as a play at home against the Blue Jays. Did we drop the Blue Jays as a road team?
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  33. 04-05-10 11:20 AM #33
    sapidoc
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    Well done stingy. Keep this up man; I'm crazy excited about this and look forward to seeing it all develop. Cheers.
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  34. 04-05-10 11:30 AM #34
    SparJMU
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    Quote Originally Posted by sapidoc View Post
    Well done stingy. Keep this up man; I'm crazy excited about this and look forward to seeing it all develop. Cheers.
    You are right I don't know you. I don't mean to be critical of you personally. I just want people to understand that this system is going to fail, and therefore do not risk anything substantial. I am glad that $200 will not be damaging to you personally.

    Quotes like the one above are the reason I want people to understand both sides. If someone thinks this system is going to work and risks substantial amounts of money, they will lose substantial amounts of money.

    When I was a younger, more naive version of myself, I lost solid money doing this system. I have friends last year who lost a ton (see STL vs col, PHL vs tor, PHI vs BAL).

    If you are doing this for fun and don't mind throwing $200 down the drain, I apologize for interrupting you. If you are expecting to actually profit, please read my posts and understand reality.
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  35. 04-05-10 12:15 PM #35
    trevlyn1983
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    Gl Today
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