1. 04-05-10 12:40 PM #36
    Cosmo213
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    SparJMU, I understand where you're coming from. Under certain circumstances there is the possibility for very large losses using this system. We've talked about this in the discussion thread and have a plan if we face the worst possible situation.

    The level of risk is so great because the elevation of bet size after a loss is exponential and is further compounded by large odds, -160 or higher especially. If betting on a favorite, a B-bet is more than double what the A-bet was and a C-bet is more than double the B-bet. The most dangerous situation is when a heavy favorite loses the first 2 games of a series. Depending on your initial bet size you could be risking $1000 or more to profit $100 in game 3.

    Instead of solely relying on the money line for a C-bet, we'll use the -1 run line or a simulated one if not available at particular sportsbooks. This will help lower the amount at risk and allow the possibility of a push.

    It's also very important to practice good money management. Personally I would recommend betting to win no more than 2% of ones bankroll on an A-bet for this system. stingyrivers is betting 5% on A-bets which is far too much IMO, but that is his choice. He's not encouraging others to do the same.

    If you have further inquiries please stop by the discussion thread.
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  2. 04-05-10 01:39 PM #37
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    looking good so far! i think the jays are going to be good this year, especially in the first month of the season, so I will not be betting against them if you add them to the road list.
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  3. 04-05-10 01:47 PM #38
    jolmscheid
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    Hey is anyone doing the -1RL or is everyone doing the ML??? I am debating on which one I should follow for the year...insight please?
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  4. 04-05-10 01:51 PM #39
    spankadank
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    Why is PHI a play. Are they included in the system.
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  5. 04-05-10 02:02 PM #40
    Cosmo213
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    Quote Originally Posted by jolmscheid View Post
    Hey is anyone doing the -1RL or is everyone doing the ML??? I am debating on which one I should follow for the year...insight please?
    The first two games of a series are ML plays, so that we get a high win % which is required for this system. We're only using the -1 RL officially in the event of a game 3 to reduce the risk amount.

    Quote Originally Posted by spankadank View Post
    Why is PHI a play. Are they included in the system.
    Philly's outside of the system since they're on the road, but stingyrivers included it since he really liked the matchup. Philly's up 7-1 in the 6th inning so I think it was a good call.

    Edit: Make that 11-1 in the 7th.
    Last edited by Cosmo213; 04-05-10 at 02:14 PM.
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  6. 04-05-10 02:15 PM #41
    maniilaq
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    it is not really a system when plays are just added on a "feel".
    it is kind of more like handicapping...
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  7. 04-05-10 02:17 PM #42
    SkivChef
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    he noted in an earlier thread that it was his choice noy the system. please see the discussion thread.
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  8. 04-05-10 02:31 PM #43
    spankadank
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    Sorry guys, I read through both threads must have overlooked it. I did make the play and they are up 11-1. Thanks for the responses
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  9. 04-05-10 03:45 PM #44
    balls2wall
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    Quote Originally Posted by jolmscheid View Post
    Hey is anyone doing the -1RL or is everyone doing the ML??? I am debating on which one I should follow for the year...insight please?


    I played PHI at -1, but the rest of mine at ML (CWS and STL)


    I may do AZ at -1 in a bit


    I wasn't sure I was getting on them, but since my other 3 are already done...
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  10. 04-05-10 04:52 PM #45
    goldseeker
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    good start!
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  11. 04-05-10 06:08 PM #46
    GGPLAYER
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    Ok I'm in. Little confusing with all the threads. Missed the first 3 winners today but I"m on with LAA.
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  12. 04-05-10 06:14 PM #47
    GGPLAYER
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    Ok I'm in. Little confusing with all the threads. Missed the first 3 winners today but I"m on with LAA.
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  13. 04-05-10 06:53 PM #48
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    So barring an Angels loss tonight, the only play tomorrow will be the Rays.
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  14. 04-05-10 07:00 PM #49
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaxjonesdrew32 View Post
    So barring an Angels loss tonight, the only play tomorrow will be the Rays.
    Commented on your post in the other thread, check it out man
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  15. 04-05-10 08:15 PM #50
    reverend
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    great start.

    i went 4-0 today in my series plays as well. 5-0 on the year. 95 more wins. (thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-h...-2010-mlb.html )

    like we have said before, there will be a few "non-system" plays through the season, which is what the phils were today. Along the same lines, I will be playing Boston in a few days when they travel to the Royals.

    we want 100 wins however we can get them!
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  16. 04-05-10 08:18 PM #51
    reverend
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    stingy...

    have you tinkered any more with the money management for the year? are you locked into upping 50% after every 10?

    love our start bro!
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  17. 04-05-10 09:14 PM #52
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    Just placed my bet on the Rays tomorrow before the line goes up. That game will be my only play tomorrow.
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  18. 04-05-10 11:12 PM #53
    reverend
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaxjonesdrew32 View Post
    Just placed my bet on the Rays tomorrow before the line goes up. That game will be my only play tomorrow.
    nice job. the line has already moved up about 15 cent from the opener at -160 to currently -175.

    get on this one early boys. it is clearly the best ML bet on the board tomorrow!
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  19. 04-05-10 11:49 PM #54
    sapidoc
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    Yes, stingy; if you can, you should post the picks as close to opening as we can get. Especially since we are playing the ML's, it would really help.

    I got in at -175 here. Hopefully it doesn't go up much from that tomorrow for those that are waiting for the official post from stingy.
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  20. 04-06-10 12:17 AM #55
    IWinMyBets
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    Great Beginning!
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  21. 04-06-10 12:25 AM #56
    reverend
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    Nice LAA win to wrap up the day! well done today
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  22. 04-06-10 06:48 AM #57
    stingyrivers
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    [quote=stingyrivers;3937455]starting bankroll: 200.00


    April 5th -

    (A) Bet: Philadelphia Phillies 20.00 to win 10.00 WIN series over

    (A) Bet: Chicago White Sox 16.00 to win 10.00 WIN series over

    (A) Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks 18.50 to win 10.00 WIN series over

    (A) Bet: L.A. Angels 13.00 to win 10.00 WIN series over


    Current Bankroll: 250.00 ....... 5 - 0 (+50.00)
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  23. 04-06-10 06:51 AM #58
    stingyrivers
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    April 6th -


    (A) Bet: Tampa Bay Rays 17.50 to win 10.00


    Current Bankroll: 250.00 ....... 5 - 0 (+50.00)


    just the one play for today, and if the Rays win, the system would be off until Friday where it looks like there will be about 3 plays

    5 down... 145 to go
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  24. 04-06-10 07:57 AM #59
    do5000
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    4 games, 4 wins... BO-ring!

    let's cash on TB and we're off till friday.
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  25. 04-06-10 08:23 AM #60
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    Well regardless of tonight, I think the chances of the Rays getting swept by the Orioles at home are HIGHLY unlikely. Take it down for us right away Rays!
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  26. 04-06-10 09:10 AM #61
    RickyG033
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    Stingy...I am on this bandwagon as well. Do you have a spreadsheet that you are using for this that you would like to share? I have one but its pretty clustered and tough to follow.

    Thanks
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  27. 04-06-10 10:59 AM #62
    jolmscheid
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    Rays!!!!
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  28. 04-06-10 11:09 AM #63
    reverend
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    I am on Rays at -1RL. I really want to see them win 1 of the first 2, because Balt's #3 starting pitcher is a young stud who can shut any lineup down!

    so...lets win it tonight.

    i have 2 other plays as well, that i am using the chase on (AZ, BOS)
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  29. 04-06-10 11:19 AM #64
    jolmscheid
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    But AZ and BOS already won rev....am I missing something?
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  30. 04-06-10 11:19 AM #65
    jolmscheid
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    Also, Rev are you doing the -1RL on every game? Thanks for your insight
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  31. 04-06-10 11:27 AM #66
    reverend
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    Quote Originally Posted by jolmscheid View Post
    Also, Rev are you doing the -1RL on every game? Thanks for your insight
    i explained it in my picks thread. i want to have some flexibility with the way i play this, so i did not want to pay the -205 for TB, so I played the -1. I just see them exploding on Millwood.

    About AZ and Bos, read my thread for my reasoning. basically i see the next 4 games as an easy win, so I am treating it like its own series. i like both pitching matchups in these games as well.
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  32. 04-06-10 09:13 PM #67
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    HAHA WOW!!! Literally inches away from Kelly Shoppach making us 6-0
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  33. 04-06-10 09:14 PM #68
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    Thank you Carl Crawford!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What a finish!
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  34. 04-06-10 09:18 PM #69
    jaxjonesdrew32
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    So I guess we are taking a couple days off now.
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  35. 04-06-10 09:25 PM #70
    SkivChef
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    sting, what are the 3 were lookin at for the wknd?
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