1. #1
    The HG
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    Sept 27 Ganchalysis: Early Plays and Leans

    Baltimore ML (-120): Guthrie of course was cruising early in the year, and then faltered when he got injured and probably fatigued. But he seems like he is healthy again, and is looking forward to getting a start in before the year ends. he may well have a shutdown start here against whatever so-so lineup Toronto sends out, and if that happens, Baltimore will very likely come out with a win.


    Boston RL (-125), Over 9 (-120): Boston should have a pretty significant pitching and lineup edge in this one, and as such both the RL and the over have value IMO. The RL is not an avoidance of the huge fave ML, it has added value due to volatility and bullpen strength.


    Philly ML (+125): Smoltz is strong and steady, but this is a value play. Kendrick has been effective this year, and could easily keep Philly in the game. If he does, Philly should have an edge at home against the Atlanta bullpen.


    St. Louis ML (+195): The Mets have a big edge in this game, but not as big as this line is saying, IMO. Piniero has been decent recently, and St. Louis has at least part of a lively lineup, and they could easily stay competitive in this one until the end.


    KC ML (+110): Buckner probably has more of an upside at this point than Broadway, and KC is pretty evenly matched with the Sox, so I see modest but pretty clear value with KC as a dog.


    Seattle ML (+115), Under 10 (-115): Baek has had success in the majors before, and his struggles this year were probably mostly due to injury troubles. This is a good spot for him, a year-end game with low interest, and he will likely be able to establish himself a bit with a strong start here. Byrd has always been great at Petco, but I see a low-run Seattle win as the most likely outcome.

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    I don't know about that Cardinals play tomorrow Mr.HG.

    Even despite the Mets struggling right now I just don't see this one happening. The Cardinals continue to field all there scrubs with the exception of Pujols of course. It really amazes me how they even won that game tonight, because they screwed up 3 easy double play opportunities tonight.

  3. #3
    WestsidePete
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    STL goes to METS to play a make up game...Pedro will be pitching vs Pinerio

  4. #4
    The HG
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    BBD, they may be no-names, but they're all playing pretty well overall. I'm glad Edmonds isn't playing. The guys they are playing - Ryan, Shumaker, Ankiel, Ludwick, Miles, those guys are all doing pretty well.

  5. #5
    EJandV
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    gotta love the Mets in that one , then Mets get the Marlins and sweep em , and start looking like a different team than they have .
    Mets are only -215 lol nothing like ridiculous odds .

  6. #6
    WestsidePete
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    at least -215 with pedro pitching seems a little realistic....not with that rookie starter from today

  7. #7
    EJandV
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    Really , oddsmakers were on drugs when they came up with Mets -215 with Humber , they were trippin big time .

  8. #8
    WestsidePete
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    they do the same thing with yankee home games w/pitchers like hughes or igawa..incredible they get -220 plus at home

  9. #9
    Crayzee
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    i been riding the against mets and over gravy train for awhile now

    will def go with st louis

    not sure on the over yet

    ny sports radio wfan is having open tryouts for mets relief pitching tomorrow


  10. #10
    betplom
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    Baltimore ML (-120): Guthrie of course was cruising early in the year, and then faltered when he got injured and probably fatigued. But he seems like he is healthy again, and is looking forward to getting a start in before the year ends. he may well have a shutdown start here against whatever so-so lineup Toronto sends out, and if that happens, Baltimore will very likely come out with a win.
    I read today that Guthrie will be on a pitch count of 75, that means the bullpen will likely be a factor, this makes me want to play the over 9.5.

  11. #11
    WestsidePete
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    Quote Originally Posted by betplom View Post
    I read today that Guthrie will be on a pitch count of 75, that means the bullpen will likely be a factor, this makes me want to play the over 9.5.

    nice info...that means 5 innings at best...I'm with you on the over....and a little on TOR probably as well

  12. #12
    JAHgger4noz
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    Quote Originally Posted by betplom View Post
    I read today that Guthrie will be on a pitch count of 75, that means the bullpen will likely be a factor, this makes me want to play the over 9.5.
    Yea i saw that on guthries pitch count...was one of the factors i took tor. Started off bad in that game but now they turned it around. Hopefully it holds. The OVER was a very good play betplom.

    -215 with Humber.??? I thought that was a ridiculous line too when it came out. Big Name team. Division leading team. Betting public team. And if i can recall, that line also went up for the Mets. I wonder if they will really nose dive and get swept in their next series

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