Only got 5 listed umps today, but the numbers break down pretty solidly(I like my Over Umps to be over 10.0 RPG and Under Umps to be less than 9.0 RPG and ALL 5 umps fit in today, I didn't check the wind/weather tho) but if you were liking any of these totals to begin with, these should just add some confidence, The 5 for Tuesday are:
ST.L/MIL OVER 9 -108, T.Welke 10.30 RPG avg L2 seasons! Wouldn't mind seeing the same kind of game today as yesterday(17 runs scored in yesterday's game)
SD/SF OVER 7.5 -108, Culbreth 10.1 RPG L2(I will add that Culbreth was MONEY for the Over last year(21-11 10.68) but has dropped some this year(14-18 9.53), since he helped me hit a bunch of overs last year I still luv this guy as an over Ump and think he's wroth the shot with a 7.5 total, even tho SD can't hit right now and Matt Cain is a stud in the making!
LAA/TEX UNDER 10.5 +100, Nelson 7.56 RPG L2 and he's been a pretty consistent under guy these last 2 seasons, ABSOLUTELY AWESOME this year at 4-13 5.94(Yes that means less than 6 RPG in his games this year, that is AMAZINGLY low!! and was even 12-20 9.18 LY, so he looks like the best bet of them all today BUT LAA has clinched the division and are only playing for home-field, while I know nothing about A.Murray and hate to play totals on pitchers I don't know, definitely a good under ump here tho!
MINN/DET UNDER 9.5 +105, Froemming 8.86 L2, Again we got a guy who was great for the Under last year(12-18 8.31), but has come up a bit this year(9.41) Also think this is the 1st game behind the plate for him since he was behind the dish for Milton Bradley's injury/outburst(I know 1st base ump tossed him, but Froemming was the crew chief there)...Man was that weird, So not sure how he'll react, I know if I was umping(I am an Umpire BTW) I'd be hesitant to call the big strike zone for fear of the media microscope and more player.coach/fan reaction!
WASH/NYM UNDER 8.5 +102, B.Welke 8.9 L2, Bill is the opposite of his brother Tim(who I've already mentioned as a good Over Ump) and is more of a pitcher-friendly Ump(8.68 TY, 9.11 LY is more consistent than most) but the 10.2 L5 games trends the wrong way!
P.S. Here's the games with 'meaning'(At this time of year I almost exclusively look for teams who have something to play for)
ZONA +110, Zona's magic number is 4 to clinch their division and they should beat lesser teams like Pitt in this spot(Line does seem low IMO(Trap?) and I do like Snell)
ATL +117, Now these are the games I LUV late in the year..BOTH teams are still fighting for the playoffs and must win, I just posted the dog and the team who is further behind in the standings(PHI tied for the Wilcard lead, ATL 3 GB of the Wildcard)
CHC -133, Cubs magic number is 4 and remember guys..the worm has turned..LOL!
NYM -222, Mets magic number is 5 and they lost game one of this set yesterday to a team they should be able to handle, especially at home!
MIL -149, Down 3 games in their division and 5GB of the wildcard, MIL is running out of time and must win here!
LAD -134, Penny's team had won 9 straight starts vs COL until they lost at Coors last week to snap that streak, think Penny could be worth the shot here to avoid 2 straight losses vs COL after 9 straight wins, also MUST win spot for LA as they are 5GB of the wildcard and this COL team is one of 4 teams they gotta leapfrog to earn a trip to the postseason!
SD +117, SD tied with Philly for the wildcard lead have more to play for than SF, but who knows how they'll react down the stretch with the whole Milton Bradley fiasco, this is one you could fade if you think they're done for, but underdog value if you think they fight and claw their way to a much needed victory!
DET -116, DET lost game one of this set yesterday and are officially eliminated from wildcard contention with a loss or NYY win today, at home I think they should answer, but not too sure about Bazardo(Converted reliever)
BOST -216, BoSox are trying to hold off the yanks who trail by just 2 games now and their magic number is 5 and they just gotta win these games they are heavy favs in...don't they?
NYY -158, Pitching change here to Igawa as NYY tries to clinch a playoff berth with a win, and now it's just a matter of time before they clinch, but think they really want to catch Boston if they could, so a win here vs a weak squad makes sense!
SEA -149, SEA is in the same boat as DET, Lose and they're done or NYY win and they're done, may want to wait til gametime on this one as they should know how the Yanks game will end by the time their game starts and if yanks win, this pick becomes useless, but if NYY lose, look for SEA to play well at home behind young flame-throwing ace King Felix!
CWS -117 Bannister vs Contreras, NO Playoff implications here, but didn't Contreras just shutout KC and Bannister in his last start as Contreras may have actually found his form here in September(LOL) Bannister has had a very solid year but think the IP has caught up to him and he's finally hitting the wall...this is a garbage game tho and just mentioned it for the hell of it!
GOOD LUCK TONIGHT GUYS!!!
Last edited by BossRoss; 09-25-07 at 05:10 PM.
Reason: Adding-on
Everywhere I can, Ump Info I get at JimFeist, stats I look up at Covers.usatoday(Standings at yahoo) and the rest is from my memory of watching games and espn or gut instincts! I basically use the stats to back up my picks or to weed out some of my lesser leans, I usually have an idea of who I like overnight(Teams/Starting pitchers) and just try to find positive info/stats to make it look like I know what I'm doing...LOL Most important stuff I look at is previous game pitch count and recent travel schedule(Teams w/o a day off playing a team w/ a day off, or SEA playing in NY after an extra inning game at LA the day before, advantages like that is what I find most helpful!) Other than that I can go with my gut!
I do have a pretty good eye for talent(Particularly pitching...I used to pitch myself and currently ump in the Summer) and I tend to trust my gut over crunching a bunch of numbers, but ANYTHING that could possibly be helpful I'll try and dig up..sometimes that leads to overanalyzing tho as there's so much info out there but alot of times you'll find that one stat or piece of info that takes a play you like over the top and to the next level of confidence..and usually when I have supreme confidence that I'll win the game no matter what happens..I do, and IMO winning is %90 mental, it's amazing how well you do when you truly do like the pick you're making, it makes all the difference in the world, at least to me! One thing I like to do too is ask myself before a game, "Is this pick worth it EVEN if it loses", if you can honestly answer 'yes' to that then you should win more than you lose, Example, If SEA had Felix going and he gave up 3 runs in the 1st inning but they were facing Casey Fossum, I'd still like their chances to come back, cause I know Felix is a damn good hurler and usually will settle down and give you a good chance to win, and SEA kills LHP so 3 runs is still easily within reach, now if they fell behind 3-0 and you're hope is gone and you're kicking yourself in the butt for making that pick, then to me thats a bad pick, but if after the game you can say "you know what, I had the right side, they just came up short" and just tip your cap to the other team for beating a good play, if you do that I can almost guarantee you will not lose at baseball! It works for me and if you know your bases I'm sure it'll work for you guys too!!!
Yanks now DOWN 6-5 as the pen just gave up a 6-run 6th inning, which Means M's may have something to play for and face LHP Laffey! SEA KILLS LHP and Laffey has struggled facing a team for a 2nd time(This will be his 2nd career start vs SEA) Laffey vs MINN 5.1IP 3ER 1st time, 4IP 5ER 2nd time, vs KC 6IP 2ER 1st time, 6.1IP 4ER 2nd time and in his 1st start vs SEA he went 6.1IP and allowed 4ER(So hopefully 5+ this time around) CLEV hasn't seen Felix yet this year and he threw well last time vs them in a 1-0 loss vs CLEV last season!
Ump picks are looking pretty good so far and I knew the numbers were solid(Over 10 and Under 9 is what I like to get), Just hope the late ones can win tho and give us a 4-1 out of those 5, Sides I really didn't care too much about, Just want my M's to win, but down 3-0 already(Don't worry I got faith that SEA will score vs this Lefty and Felix will settle in) M's couldn't score in the 1st, but thats casue they lefties hit and think the RH hitters are what gives Laffey trouble toinight and we'll see that thru the rest of the lineup(Lefties 0-2, Righties 1-1 so far but was CS)
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