1. #1
    curious
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    Join Date: 07-20-07
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    Public overbetting of favorites late in the year

    I read somewhere that the public overbets favorites after the all star break. I am wondering if this overbetting becomes more pronounced the closer we get to the end of the season.

    Does anyone have any stats on this?

    The article where I read the "after the all star break" overbetting theory said that blind betting all home dogs > +150 was a positive expectation (after the all star break).

    Personally, I don't like blind betting anything. But, if the public does overbet favorites it might be worthwhile to look more closely at dogs > +150.

    I am guessing that this overbetting (if it does exist) would become more pronounced as the penant races heat up between now and the end of the season.

  2. #2
    BatemanPatrickl
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    Join Date: 06-21-07
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  3. #3
    maritime
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    Next time I bump into public, I'll ask him, and let you know.

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