1. #1
    The HG
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    Sept 14 Ganchalysis

    Atl/Wash under 9 (+100): The starting pitching here is questionable, but this total is high enough to give value to the under IMO. Chico has pitched Atlanta decently this year, and has done generally well at home. 9 of his home starts have gone under 9, while only 3 have gone over. James is limping toward the finish line, but in general is a pretty effective starter. So all in all, I think under 9 is a decent bet despite questions marks with the starting pitching and Atlanta's capable lineup.


    Yanks ML (-105): Dice K has hit a really rocky stretch, and he may be wearing down. Pettitte is pitching solidly though, and he is less likely to get hit hard than Dice K. The Yanks should probably be favored here by a bit IMO.


    Philly/Mets under 9.5 (-110): Glavine has been very effective of late, and he'll probably be so again here. Moyer hasn't been as good as Glavine, but he has done well at Shea this year, and that is probably not fluky. This is a highish total at Shea with 2 starters who know how to keep scoring moderate.


    KC ML (+190): KC and Bannister aren't getting much respect here. Sabathia has been very sharp, but Bannister could well keep pace with him, and if he does, KC does have a lineup and pen well capable of pulling this one out on the road.


    Bal/Tor under 10 (-115): Both of these young starters have had sustained success this year, and likely to be able to be effective enough here to give value to the under at 10 IMO. Burres was good as a starter, and is likely to want to re-establish himself in this spot start.


    Cincinnati ML (+195): Shearn has pitched well in his brief time in the bigs, and Sheets of course is very inconsistent with his dominance. If he is off or has another unexpected early exit, this game will be very even to the end. Cincy's bats match up competitively with Milwaukee's when 2 righties are starting.


    Houston ML (-165): This may seem like a big line for Houston at first, but I actually think it has decent value on their side. Pittsburgh is not sending out a strong lineup at all right now, and unless Oswalt has some kind of injury or fatigue issues, they will be hard-pressed to get him for more than 2 in 7. If that is the case, Houston will have decent value even at this big favorite line. Snell can be good but is less solid and consistent than Oswalt at this point.


    St. Louis ML (-105): Zambrano was having serious problems before catching a bit of a break against the weak Pittsburgh lineup in his last start, and going against St. Louis should test him more. Wainwright of course has had an impressive season, and even though he has gotten hit hard in all 3 of his starts against the Cubs this year, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at this line with Zambrano's question marks on the other side.


    Tex/Oak under 9.5 (-110): Neither one of these lineups is particularly fearsome, and this number is highish, especially considering that the pitching involved is a bit underrated. Meyer has been decent in the majors and was good as a starter in the minors, and will likely be primed and prepared for a good start here. Gabbard has been very effective at times and is unlikely to get hit hard here.

  2. #2
    pico
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    you didn't mention the braves, but your picks are the same as mine for cards and yankees

  3. #3
    bigboydan
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    I'm liking your Yankees play Mr.HG

  4. #4
    BatemanPatrickl
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    I am liking your Yankees play as well; TOR/BAL under also looks good.

  5. #5
    stump
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    i'm on the KC play

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