[The HG]

Seattle ML (+110), over 9 (+100): Haren has been struggling since the break, and it seems like it is getting worse. That does not bode well for him here against the capable Seattle lineup. With a productive lineup against a questionable starter and a quality bullpen, Seattle has decent value as a home dog IMO. The mid-range total also has value with the over as the pitching should have a bit of trouble keeping the runs down as the innings wear on.


Minn/KC over 8.5 (-120): The starting pitching here is decent but not dominant, and the lineups are none too impressive, but all in all this line is a bit low IMO. This is a game where each team could scratch out 4 runs, locking in an over at 8.5.


Angels/Baltimore over 9 (-115): Both starters have shutout potential, but in general they have been struggling a bit recently. Cabrera, when he is not dominant, is mediocre at best, and if he is off, could give up close to the full 9 all by himself. Escobar is generally sharp, but may be losing it a bit at this late point in the season, and if he is, Baltimore should be able to get to him for at least a few.


Texas ML (+200), over 9 (-115): Verlander has been dominant his last 3 starts, and if he is here again, it may scotch both of these bets. But he is also prone to a bad one here and there, and if he has a non-dominant outing, at least one of these is likely to come in. Even if he is on his game, both Volquez and the Detroit lineup have the capability of bringing in one bet or the other.


Atlanta ML (-105), over 8 (-110): Smoltz is as steady as they come, but he still usually gives up 2 or 3 in his quality starts. Maine on the other hand is looking pretty shaky in general recently, and may well be wearing down. If he is, Atlanta should be able to get to him and pull out a win with an over more likely than not.


Washington/Florida over 10 (-120): Both starters should be vulnerable here, and if most of the big bats for both teams are in, the lineups should be able to take advantage. Florida home games have gone over at more than 65% this year, and 80% in the daytime, and for real reasons. This game doesn't present any circumstances that look to mitigate those tendencies.


SD/Dodgers over 8 (-120): Germano has been struggling more as the year wears on, and he will likely give up at least a few to the Dodgers' balanced lineup. Lowe as well seems to have lost his way a bit on the mound, and SD has some ability to take advantage on the road. A low total like this demands more solid starting pitching than this game presents.

[BatemanPatrickl]

I have the Washington/Florida over as well. Good luck today sir.

[pico]

i like your picks, but i think you're crazy taking +200 against verlander. craazzzy. think i'll stay off that game.

[The HG]

i think you're crazy taking +200 against verlander. craazzzy.

So do you think taking Verlander at about -220 is the opposite of crazy, meaning there's some value there?

[The HG]

Colorado/Philly under 11 (-105): This total is too high IMO considering the pitching involved. Kendrick has been effective in the majors as a starter, even at his home hitter-friendly park. Bautista has never done well in the majors but he has always had potential, and he did well recently as a reliever in Triple A. It will take a lot of offense to get over this high total.


St. Louis ML (+135): Putting money on the freakishly unlucky Reyes may seem like a bad idea, but I think St. Louis should be competitive in this game throughout and should have a decent chance to win at the end, so I see value with them as a decent-seized dog. Arroyo is in a spot where he may be more likely than usual to get hit.


Houston ML (+130): Albers has been good at home this year, and Hill has been a bit off recently. Houston's pen is doing ok, and their bats are faring decently as well. All in all, I think this game is likely to be competitive, so Houston has value as a good-sized home dog IMO.

[Willie Bee]

I hate it when I like the same plays as you, HG, since we both wind up losers it seems. Won't say anything nor will I play any of these, and just wish you good luck instead.

[Spyder31]

Im against you on the KC/MINN game. I love the under 8.5. Good Luck!

[The HG]

I hate it when I like the same plays as you, HG, since we both wind up losers it seems. Won't say anything nor will I play any of these, and just wish you good luck instead.

Damn, last time you said this I hemmorrhhagged units, going like 1-4 or something.

Well I know one of the ones you agree on anyway, and that's Houston +130. We can say it.

By the way Willie, I hate to point out an unfortunate (for you) logical consequence of what you are saying, but you should be aware of it. What you are saying is: when you agree with me, we tend to lose. But since overall for the year my ganchalysis posts have been decently positive, it must also follow then that when you disagree with me, you tend to lose as well. You see what I'm saying? If my losses tend to come when you agree with me, then my wins must tend to come when you disagree with me, which means those are also losing opinions for you.

I'm not trying to dis here, as I said, I'm just pointing out a logical conclusion of what you are saying.

[Willie Bee]

What you are saying is: when you agree with me, we tend to lose. But since overall for the year my ganchalysis posts have been decently positive, it must also follow then that when you disagree with me, you tend to lose as well. You see what I'm saying?

I certainly do. Don't recall saying that I was staying away from your plays before, but I am an old fart and also don't remember what I had for breakfast.

I was in a bad way a week or so back and just faded your plays with little quarter unit plays, believe I did go 4-1 on those plays.

And it's not the Houston game we agree on this time. In fact, I like the Cubs tonight...there, I've said it and that should guarantee you a winner on that one.

I'm in agreement with one of your overs...ooops, sorry for your loss on that one.

[BatemanPatrickl]

WASH/FL over not looking good. Kim is pitching well...

[bigboydan]

I'm with you on Texas, but against you on the Cardinals Mr.HG.

[pico]

Seattle ML (+110), over 9 (+100): Haren has been struggling since the break, and it seems like it is getting worse. That does not bode well for him here against the capable Seattle lineup. With a productive lineup against a questionable starter and a quality bullpen, Seattle has decent value as a home dog IMO. The mid-range total also has value with the over as the pitching should have a bit of trouble keeping the runs down as the innings wear on.


Minn/KC over 8.5 (-120): The starting pitching here is decent but not dominant, and the lineups are none too impressive, but all in all this line is a bit low IMO. This is a game where each team could scratch out 4 runs, locking in an over at 8.5.


Angels/Baltimore over 9 (-115): Both starters have shutout potential, but in general they have been struggling a bit recently. Cabrera, when he is not dominant, is mediocre at best, and if he is off, could give up close to the full 9 all by himself. Escobar is generally sharp, but may be losing it a bit at this late point in the season, and if he is, Baltimore should be able to get to him for at least a few.


Texas ML (+200), over 9 (-115): Verlander has been dominant his last 3 starts, and if he is here again, it may scotch both of these bets. But he is also prone to a bad one here and there, and if he has a non-dominant outing, at least one of these is likely to come in. Even if he is on his game, both Volquez and the Detroit lineup have the capability of bringing in one bet or the other.


Atlanta ML (-105), over 8 (-110): Smoltz is as steady as they come, but he still usually gives up 2 or 3 in his quality starts. Maine on the other hand is looking pretty shaky in general recently, and may well be wearing down. If he is, Atlanta should be able to get to him and pull out a win with an over more likely than not.


Washington/Florida over 10 (-120): Both starters should be vulnerable here, and if most of the big bats for both teams are in, the lineups should be able to take advantage. Florida home games have gone over at more than 65% this year, and 80% in the daytime, and for real reasons. This game doesn't present any circumstances that look to mitigate those tendencies.


SD/Dodgers over 8 (-120): Germano has been struggling more as the year wears on, and he will likely give up at least a few to the Dodgers' balanced lineup. Lowe as well seems to have lost his way a bit on the mound, and SD has some ability to take advantage on the road. A low total like this demands more solid starting pitching than this game presents.

mr ghg, i noticed you took all under yesterday, now you're taking all over today. wondering if your picks are just intuition or you thought this through

[The HG]

mr ghg, i noticed you took all under yesterday, now you're taking all over today. wondering if your picks are just intuition or you thought this through

I thought it through and decided to go with my intuition.

[pico]

I thought it through and decided to go with my intuition.

this is how i bet wnba also

[The Amiable Doofus]

I thought it through and decided to go with my intuition.

The mans a genius I tell ya, a real honest to Jehovah genius. Good lookin to with a eye for fashion. Lots a things Ganchrow HG and I are like twins.