1. #1
    The HG
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    September 4 Ganchalysis: Early Picks

    Washington ML (-120): Hill has been very consistent this year, and he should be able to bounce back from his last start. Willis of course has been shaky all year, but even if he keeps pace with Hill, Washington should still have a decent edge, so I think again they have value at home in a competitively-lined game.


    Cincinnati ML (+130), over 10 (-120): Perez may be vulnerable in this one, and see an early exit with a big inning. The Mets should also be able to hit Belisle as well, but with their bullpen faltering recently, I think Cincy should have an edge if the game becomes a shootout.


    Sea/Yanks under 10.5 (-105): Wang looks like he may be finding his old unhittable form, and if he has another strong start, the Yanks will have to get most of the total by themselves for the game to go over. While that is entirely possible, I think it's more likely that the game will stay under. Ramirez is very iffy to say the least, but both teams have decent bullpens, and Ramirez has pitched well against the Yanks in his 2 career starts against them.


    Baltimore ML (+140): This game looks to me to be pretty evenly matched; 2 good starters who have both hit a rocky stretch, 2 decent lineups, and 2 sub-par bullpens. As such I think Baltimore has value as this big of an underdog.


    Cubs ML (+120): Trachsel may get crushed, but he has found a way to pitch well in general this year despite having questionable stuff and peripheral stats. Penny looks to be having his traditional second-half problems, and if he is off here the Cubs should be able to take good advantage.


    Houston ML (+140): Of course this whole game is dependent on Backe's ability to be effective in the majors right off the bat, but I think that may be a decently likely proposition. He did generally well in his minor league rehab starts, and he has always been a guy who has risen to occasions like these. I think he will be able to keep Houston in the game, so they have value as this big of a dog IMO.


    KC ML (+145), under 10 (-115): Buckner looks to be a capable starter in general, and although Millwood has been pretty good of late, he doesn't look like he is able to shake inconsistency. So I think KC as a big dog has value, as well as the under, with both starters in pretty decent current form.


    Pitt/Stl under 10 (-120): Morris looks like he may be rebounding a bit from his horrible run around July, and Piniero has been pitching reasonably well since he returned to the rotation. If both starters are ok for this one, this is a highish total it will be a bit of a challenge for the lineups to surmount.


    Minnesota ML (+120), under 9.5 (-110): This game features two young starters with a lot of promise, and I think they will both do pretty well here. Minnesota's lineup is looking pretty feeble right now, but considering their bullpen and how consistent Slowey was in the minors, I think they have value as a home dog of this size.


    Arizona ML (+115), over 8.5 (-125): Young has been off since missing 2 starts earlier, and he may have control problems here again. Davis has somewhat quietly pitched very well since the break, and Arizona has actually won 9 of his last 10 starts, including 2 against San Diego. So all in all, I think Arizona has value as a home dog, and the lowish total has value with the over.

  2. #2
    fearless
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    Do you keep track of your winning % for all these picks?

  3. #3
    BatemanPatrickl
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    Nice picks Ganch; look out for posters who never post in the MLB forum mocking you after you lose.

    I like Washington as well sir...

  4. #4
    isetcap
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    You mention 2 subpar bullpens for Baltimore and Tampa. While Tampa's bullpen is most definitely subpar, Baltimore's bullpen is the worst assemblage of so-called pitchers I have ever witnessed at the major league level. If Baltimore has a 12-3 lead headed into the 8th, they MIGHT be able to hold it.

  5. #5
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by rainbowworld View Post
    Do you keep track of your winning % for all these picks?
    I do actually, mostly out of curiosity.

    YTD, all "Ganchalysis" picks have been:

    totals: 55-33, +18.3
    MLs: 59-49, +6.6
    RLs: 14-17, +0.4

    that's betting to win one unit on all.

  6. #6
    BatemanPatrickl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    I do actually, mostly out of curiosity.

    YTD, all "Ganchalysis" picks have been:

    totals: 55-33, +18.3
    MLs: 59-49, +6.6
    RLs: 14-17, +0.4

    that's betting to win one unit on all.
    Who are your top three out of the list?

  7. #7
    bigboydan
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    I'm with you on the Reds and O's Mr.HG.

  8. #8
    BatemanPatrickl
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigboydan View Post
    I'm with you on the Reds and O's Mr.HG.
    I am liking the REDS pick as well BBD!

  9. #9
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by BatemanPatrickl View Post
    Who are your top three out of the list?
    Top 3, I guess would be Minn under, Reds over, and then the third, maybe Wash ML.

  10. #10
    BatemanPatrickl
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    I am liking Washington as well and won with them last night.

  11. #11
    LT Profits
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    Well, I don't disagree with ANY of those plays! I already played Houston and I am considering Minnesota, Kansas City and the Cubs. I like the White Sox and Mariners at FAT (or PHAT) odds too.

  12. #12
    fearless
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    I do actually, mostly out of curiosity.

    YTD, all "Ganchalysis" picks have been:

    totals: 55-33, +18.3
    MLs: 59-49, +6.6
    RLs: 14-17, +0.4

    that's betting to win one unit on all.
    Thanks for that, very interesting! You're pretty amazing with the totals.

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