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Sept 2 Ganchalysis: Early Sunday Leans and Plays
Florida ML (+110), over 10.5 (-115): There should be more of the same in this game, 2 struggling starters, 2 lineups that can take advantage, with a small edge to Florida in a shootout at home, giving them value as a small dog IMO.
Tampa Bay ML (+270): Yes the Yanks will probably win this one by 5 or more, and a Yanks RL hedge might not be a bad idea, but this line is just too high IMO. Pettitte could get hit, the Yanks pen could falter, TB could pull it out many ways.
Seattle ML (+135), under 9.5 (-125): Toronto's bats really aren't getting it done right now, and Weaver should be able to keep Seattle in the game, giving them value considering their lineup and bullpen. Burnett of course is a quality starter on the other side, and has been settling into a groove of late, so the under should also have value IMO.
Washington ML (+105), under 9 (-125): There should be more of the same in this one. Runs should be at a premium, giving value to both the under and Washington as a small home dog, with mediocre but capable pitching and hitting more likely to scratch out a win than not.
Kansas City ML (+100), under 8.5 (-105): Both starters are likely to have solid games here, with an edge to Bannister. The bullpens are capable, so KC has value at even money, and the under has some value as well IMO.
Oakland ML (+110), under 9.5 (+100): The starting pitching should be able to keep the scoring modest for the first parts of the game, and Oakland should have an edge at home with their bullpen. It will take an extra push IMO to get this game into double digits in scoring, with Oakland having value as a small home dog.
Dodgers ML (+100): The Dodgers rate a solid edge in starting pitching here IMO, and that gives them value at even money, as their lineup and bullpen are capable of doing their respective parts. Billingsley is developing into a legitimate quality starter, while Germano has cooled off considerably and should be challenged by the Dodgers' balanced lineup.
Colorado ML (+195), over 8.5 (+105): Webb has had notable trouble all year against Colorado, but even if that weren't the case, I would still like these 2 picks. Webb was great in his shutout run, but has off days reasonably regularly, and this line is factoring in Webb's ability too much IMO. If Webb is off, the over is very likely to come in, but even if he has another shutdown start, the over is still entirely reachable by Arizona alone against Fogg and the Colorado pen.
Texas ML (+200): Texas has been legitimately competitive this entire series so far, and should be again here. Gabbard has proven to be a crafty starter, often keeping his team in games and coming close to matching the starts of pitchers with bigger reputations. Texas should be in this one down to the wire, and has value as a huge dog IMO.
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Originally Posted by bigboydan
