[The HG]

Boston RL (-110), over 9.5 (-110): I don't believe Liz is ready for the big time yet at all, he had real problems in the minors with control, and he won't be able to get away with that at Fenway. He's likely to have at least as bad of a start here as he did in his first against Minn, so I think the Boston RL and over have value because of that.


Wash ML (-115), under 8.5 (+100): Redding's last bad start came with some legitimate excuses, and here, SF should have a hard time scoring as they do at home. This formula has worked all year at RFK: mediocre starting pitching + mediocre lineups + close to average total + Wash small home fave or dog = under and Wash ML. I think this game has those same conditions.


Cleveland ML (-170): This might seem like a high line with Buehrle going, but I still think there is value with Cleveland here. The Sox, in case you hadn't noticed, are 3-16 in their last 19, and have lost 9 in a row on the road. They should have a hard time again as Carmona may have come back down to earth, but he is still a solid starter backed by a decent lineup.


TB ML (+215): Yes TB is quite capable of winning this one. They're off a sweep of Baltimore, and if this one becomes a shootout, they have the bats for a big inning which could put the game out of reach.


Atlanta ML (-150): The Mets are surprisingly falling apart, and while they are likely to recover at some point, it's not likely to be here against Hudson and Atlanta. Maine has had an awful August, while Hudson has been humming since the AS Break, and the conditions for this game don't indicate any kind of reversal. Even the Mets' vaunted bullpen has been failing of late, including yesterday, while Atlanta got the day off. I think Atlanta has value even as a sizable favorite.


Det/Oak under 9.5 (-120): The early season tendencies have reversed themselves in this game; Detroit's lineup has cooled off, while Blanton has gotten hit hard of late. But he looks to have recovered a bit, particularly at home, and Detroit's starter has been doing well in the minors and will likely be ready for this call-up. Add it all up, and the total of 9.5 is on the high side IMO.


Tex/Angels under 10 (-120): There has been more scoring than you might expect at Angels' Stadium this year, but this is still a high total for this park, and considering that both starters have been pitching decently of late. Texas has trouble scoring in general, and both bullpens are decent as well. It should take an extra push or two for this one to get over IMO.

[BatemanPatrickl]

I like these pics GH but cannot take Tampa Bay! With you on the Braves and Boston; what do you think about the Phillies?

[Dumb_lucK]

Tb Ml +235

[stump]

Tb is definetly worth a shot, Neither pitcher has pitched well, and Yanks off BOSOX sweep. TB usually plays NY tough

[LGBoots]

Im on 7 of your 9 picks Ganch (Got +240 on Tampa). The prices had drifted a bit too much on the other 2.

GL all

[bigboydan]

I'm rolling with you on Tampa Bay tonight Mr.HG.

[Willie Bee]

Boston RL (-110), over 9.5 (-110): I don't believe Liz is ready for the big time yet at all, he had real problems in the minors with control, and he won't be able to get away with that at Fenway.

Yeah, but he's got a great name, don't you think?

Agree with you, however, that Boston on the run line is a good bet. I'm going to puss out on you with the Cleveland chalk, however. Just think this is the kind of game that Crazy Ozzie and the ChiSox have a shot in.