[fearless]

I've never seen anyone here EVER take the +1.5 run line... why?

[BatemanPatrickl]

You get killed on the chalk...

[fearless]

You get killed on the chalk...

I see but there must be people out there taking the +1.5 line, where are they?

[LT Profits]

MLB runlines are possibly the worst bet in all of sports. Not a single team has shown a profit on the runline in any season over the last seven years.

[BatemanPatrickl]

MLB runlines are possibly the worst bet in all of sports. Not a single team has shown a profit on the runline in any season over the last seven years.

-1.5 runlines are tempting at times but the games are pure torture to watch.

[EJandV]

I do the +1.5 all the time on parlays as a cover for favs I have on parlays , and look for 1 run win by the fav to get both right . I do this like most do single wagers . Is normal , not being greedy can be very wise .

[curious]

I've never seen anyone here EVER take the +1.5 run line... why?

because it is a sucker bet. The vig on that bet is something like 22%.

[Ganchrow]

because it is a sucker bet. The vig on that bet is something like 22%.

I don't know where you're playing that charges you 22% (!) vig on run lines but I suggest you immediately head for the hills and never look back.

Even Bookmaker, a book not exactly known for its low juice, is nowhere near 22% vig on any of it's run lines.

Here are 6 MLB games I selected randomly from Bookmaker's current board. I compare the vig on the run lines to the vig on the money lines:

REDS    	+1½ -195	+110
PIRATES 	-1½ +165	-130
Money Line Vig:	3.98%
Run Line Vig:	3.70%

CARDINALS	-1½ +120	-135
ASTROS  	+1½ -140	+115
Money Line Vig:	3.81%
Run Line Vig:	3.65%

D-BACKS 	+1½ -130	+170
PADRES  	-1½ +110	-200
Money Line Vig:	3.57%
Run Line Vig:	3.98%

RED SOX 	+1½ -145	+136
YANKEES 	-1½ +125	-156
Money Line Vig:	3.20%
Run Line Vig:	3.50%

TIGERS  	-1½ +105	-155
ROYALS  	+1½ -125	+135
Money Line Vig:	3.23%
Run Line Vig:	4.16%

MARINERS	+1½ -160	+125
INDIANS 	-1½ +140	-145
Money Line Vig:	3.50%
Run Line Vig:	3.11%

As you can see the vig on the run line is lower than the vig on the money line in half the cases and is never more than half a percent larger in any case.

There certainly are valid reasons to stay away from playing the run lines. That run lines are routinely offered at higher vig is not one of them.

See this post I made on choosing between run lines and money lines.

[BigDaddy]

You get killed on the chalk...

LOL!

[EJandV]

Drop them seeds man !Real life for me here >>> If an x is an x and checks on my paper is a check >>> is a withdrawl then the real reasoning for taking the dog with the run or the fav minus the run would all come down to the games in question , the games actually wagered<<<< .ONE SCENARIO > Someone can prove all theory wrong , like myself , a big hit on 1 PARLAY/PARLAYS FOR THAT GIVEN DAY to make up for all the losing ones JUST BECAUSE I COVERED MYSELF WITH THE +1.5 STRATEGY (and of course in all sports) . When a team is a big lemon which is a normal occurence then if you covered yourself you may hit up on other parlays to make more than you did with what you really liked for the night . I am speaking from experience , nothing hypothetical whatsoever . I cant say to much here because people wont believe me or they will just try and knock me , but I have hundreds of winning 7 - 10 team parlays that were good because I used the cover the favs strategy with the +1.5 . I set a goal and use sound strategies , sometimes I do around TWENTY 10 teamers a day and do it in a way where I can actually get all of them right , of course the dog with the +1.5 , is a simple 30 - 40 $ a day thing , no sweat if it goes good or doesn't . I make up for it somewhere else . In all sports , sometimes all the favs win straight but is the complete opposite ats , so in effect all parlays would be right as long as you took the team on the ml and the dog + points . This goes on and on down to the 2 and 3 team parlays , it is all connected with higher and lower probablity attached to each , getting killed by the big lemon / the fav has an outer realm most have not really ventured , in essence it can turn into a big profit when your best pick of the day /week/month loses if you cover yourself with the opposite team on some parlays with nice payouts ...........or you can hit both if they win but dont cover . okay

[EJandV]

5 favs won by 1 run tonight soooooooo a check on paper is a check not an x not red on a betting ticket killing the stake ........................................ .......................... actual breakdown for this night with the +1.5 line was 13 out of the 15 were good with the +1.5 , you could have only went wrong doing the +1.5 with 2 teams Cards DBacks . THATS REALITY . Not a theory .

[WestsidePete]

5 favs won by 1 run tonight soooooooo a check on paper is a check not an x not red on a betting ticket killing the stake ........................................ .......................... actual breakdown for this night with the +1.5 line was 13 out of the 15 were good with the +1.5 , you could have only went wrong doing the +1.5 with 2 teams Cards DBacks . THATS REALITY . Not a theory .

so...do you ever bet the entire + 1.5 run line board on any nite??

[EJandV]

Ganchrow , I was very impressed by your deep insight posts on this subject + even goin deeper . You dropped it on here like a brand new kerosene heater to a naked hawaiian man in an igloo on the outskirts of alaska . If people could just see it needs kerosene we could rule the world or at the least continue being free doing whatever we please without going mad . haha and I'm clean and sober . that was some freestyle flow .

[EJandV]

nah I use the +1.5 for covers but never soley dogs+1.5 on parlays alone . Results for each night just go to show how it works .