Can the Orioles make the playoffs?
Anything is possible.
This is what they have going against them though.
Baltimore is currently fourth in their own division.
They are two full games out of third place, and three full games at of second place.
And that's just in their own division.
The Yankees have clinched the East
The Astros have clinched the West.
(Not mathematically, but is would have to rain for forty days and forty nights if that doesn't happen)
There will be no Wild Card team from the AL Central, and very more than likely the Twins win that AL Central, the White Sox and Cleveland all are in the division title mix, but it's the Twins to lose, and will host a WC series with Houston and New York earning byes and are automatically hosting a ALDS series
Three teams in each league get a WC berth.
The best of the rest are (in order) Jays, Mariners, Rays, and then the Orioles.
The O's will need to pretty much need to complete the sweep tonight and Wednesday against the second place Blue Jays, beat Boston after that in the single game make up game. Then this up coming weekend fly down to Florida, and beat the team you're really hunting down the Rays, and beat them at least three out of four. A 2-2 split hurts more than it helps. a split gains you nothing, and just takes valuable dates off the calendar.
Seven games in seven days, all against division rivals, only the single game Red Sox have a worse record, but know this, they aren't Nancy Boy pushovers, a train wreck this season, yes, a pushover, hardly.
Three and four or worse in the next seven days is a disaster, ideally you want six and one, five and two is imperative.
If Baltimore can go five and two in seven days, talk to me next week.
The Mainers aren't going to help you, they have pushovers left to play, like Texas, and Oakland, and KC Royals, and Tigers, and the Nats.
The Mariners are much better, the next time the Mainers come back east will be in the playoffs, or next year, and the O's aren't catching them. Forget about it.
For the Orioles to make the post season, they have to win this week, continue winning.
The Rays and Jays have nine games left, ideally you would need Toronto to beat them at least six out of nine to nab that third and last spot, because as of right now, it's clearly Seattle and Toronto in as WC's with Baltimore needing to catch and surpass Tampa Bay for the final spot.
I have my own databases, BR.com database is without question the most accurate.
They give the Orioles a 40 percent chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot.
The following chart is from BR.com, and updated daily.
The data is based on 1000 simulated computer games based on the performances of all teams to date this season, and projected based on the teams games yet to be played on the schedule, and includes a regression to the mean factor.
The rSOS means remaining strength of schedule, average means what is the most likely final records, POST means percentage chance to make the post season, and so on.
I've been leaning on this data for years, trust me, it's deadly accurate.
The Orioles have a 40 percent chance, 40 percent translates into +150 implied odds.
So, if you can get say +180 or better om the O's making the playoffs, there's your value bet.
I would need better than +200, but BR's numbers are usually spot on, so I'll pass on fading Baltimore or fading them.
|
Current |
|
Average |
|
Tm |
D |
rSOS |
|
W |
L |
|
W |
L |
|
Post |
WC |
Div |
|
Toronto Blue Jays |
E |
0.3 |
|
60 |
49 |
|
88.3 |
73.7 |
|
85.00% |
84.90% |
<0.1% |
Tampa Bay Rays |
E |
0.5 |
|
58 |
50 |
|
84.8 |
77.2 |
|
55.50% |
55.50% |
<0.1% |
Baltimore Orioles |
E |
0.3 |
|
57 |
52 |
|
83.5 |
78.5 |
|
39.10% |
39.10% |
<0.1% |
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Minnesota Twins |
C |
0 |
|
57 |
51 |
|
84.5 |
77.5 |
|
55.80% |
13.50% |
42.30% |
Cleveland Guardians |
C |
-0.2 |
|
56 |
52 |
|
83.3 |
78.7 |
|
43.00% |
11.90% |
31.10% |
Chicago White Sox |
C |
-0.3 |
|
55 |
53 |
|
82.5 |
79.5 |
|
34.90% |
8.30% |
26.60% |
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Seattle Mariners |
W |
-0.4 |
|
59 |
52 |
|
87.1 |
74.9 |
|
80.50% |
80.40% |
0.10% |
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And the Orioles remaining schedule is not as soft as you think it is.
They are better than Detroit and Boston right now, but the Tigers aren't that much of a pushover.
Nine games here are 'gimmes' |
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Gm# |
Date |
|
Tm |
|
Opp |
110 |
Tuesday, Aug 9 |
preview |
BAL |
|
TOR |
111 |
Wednesday, Aug 10 |
preview |
BAL |
|
TOR |
112 |
Thursday, Aug 11 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
BOS |
113 |
Friday, Aug 12 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
TBR |
114 |
Saturday, Aug 13 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
TBR |
115 |
Sunday, Aug 14 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
TBR |
116 |
Monday, Aug 15 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
TOR |
117 |
Tuesday, Aug 16 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
TOR |
118 |
Wednesday, Aug 17 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
TOR |
119 |
Thursday, Aug 18 |
preview |
BAL |
|
CHC |
120 |
Friday, Aug 19 |
preview |
BAL |
|
BOS |
121 |
Saturday, Aug 20 |
preview |
BAL |
|
BOS |
122 |
Sunday, Aug 21 |
preview |
BAL |
|
BOS |
123 |
Tuesday, Aug 23 |
preview |
BAL |
|
CHW |
124 |
Wednesday, Aug 24 |
preview |
BAL |
|
CHW |
125 |
Thursday, Aug 25 |
preview |
BAL |
|
CHW |
126 |
Friday, Aug 26 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
HOU |
127 |
Saturday, Aug 27 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
HOU |
128 |
Sunday, Aug 28 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
HOU |
129 |
Tuesday, Aug 30 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
CLE |
130 |
Wednesday, Aug 31 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
CLE |
131 |
Thursday, Sep 1 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
CLE |
132 |
Friday, Sep 2 |
preview |
BAL |
|
OAK |
133 |
Saturday, Sep 3 |
preview |
BAL |
|
OAK |
134 |
Sunday, Sep 4 |
preview |
BAL |
|
OAK |
135 |
Monday, Sep 5 |
preview |
BAL |
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TOR |
136 |
Tuesday, Sep 6 |
preview |
BAL |
|
TOR |
137 |
Wednesday, Sep 7 |
preview |
BAL |
|
TOR |
138 |
Friday, Sep 9 |
preview |
BAL |
|
BOS |
139 |
Saturday, Sep 10 |
preview |
BAL |
|
BOS |
140 |
Sunday, Sep 11 |
preview |
BAL |
|
BOS |
141 |
Tuesday, Sep 13 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
WSN |
142 |
Wednesday, Sep 14 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
WSN |
143 |
Friday, Sep 16 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
TOR |
144 |
Saturday, Sep 17 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
TOR |
145 |
Sunday, Sep 18 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
TOR |
146 |
Monday, Sep 19 |
preview |
BAL |
|
DET |
147 |
Tuesday, Sep 20 |
preview |
BAL |
|
DET |
148 |
Wednesday, Sep 21 |
preview |
BAL |
|
DET |
149 |
Thursday, Sep 22 |
preview |
BAL |
|
HOU |
150 |
Friday, Sep 23 |
preview |
BAL |
|
HOU |
151 |
Saturday, Sep 24 |
preview |
BAL |
|
HOU |
152 |
Sunday, Sep 25 |
preview |
BAL |
|
HOU |
153 |
Monday, Sep 26 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
BOS |
154 |
Tuesday, Sep 27 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
BOS |
155 |
Wednesday, Sep 28 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
BOS |
156 |
Thursday, Sep 29 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
BOS |
157 |
Friday, Sep 30 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
NYY |
158 |
Saturday, Oct 1 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
NYY |
159 |
Sunday, Oct 2 |
preview |
BAL |
@ |
NYY |
160 |
Monday, Oct 3 |
preview |
BAL |
|
TOR |
161 |
Tuesday, Oct 4 |
preview |
BAL |
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TOR |
162 |
Wednesday, Oct 5 |
preview |
BAL |
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TOR |
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