This is a series where you want to pound the overs if it remains under 10 each game. Boston and Toronto tend to have high scoring games, especially at Fenway where the Jays lineup is built to mash there.

Since the start of 2019 the Jays/Sox have had 26 games in Fenway. You can see the scores here:

http://mcubed.net/mlb/tor/bos.shtml

The average total run output between all 26 games is 10.6. Of the 26 games, 12 have had 10 or more runs, 10 have been 8 or less and 4 have had 9. April weather hasn't really impacted the trend. Only 4 games have been played there since 2019 but they average out to 10 runs and 3 of the 4 games scored 9 runs or higher. Of the 10 low scoring games, 5 of those has seen one team score 5 or more. So if you go over on the game and team runs, a very good chance you won't lose all three.

Of the 12 games that have gone over 10, they go WAY over 10. They average 15 runs. 8 of the games have scored 14 or more runs. So there's about a 30% chance of any one game scoring 14 or more. Betting over on the alternate total runs up to 15 gets you a reasonably decent chance of hitting a +500 payout.

Bichette absolutely rakes at Fenway with a career OPS of 1.167 and tOPS+ of 170. Guerrero rakes like he rakes everywhere - but Fenway is definitely above average with a .980 OPS and 118 tOPS+. Springer is also above average there with a 109 tOPS+. Biggio has a 116 tOPS+ at Fenway though he kind of sucks so I wouldn't base my decisions on him. Gurriel has a 112 tOPS+ at Fenway.

Mitigating factors: Chapman has sucked at Fenway. Hernandez and his tOPS+ of 130 at Fenway is on the IL this series. Rowdy Tellez who was another Fenway masher was traded to the Brewers last year.

Not much to say about the pitching. The pitchers kind of don't matter but most of the SP for this series have been serving up batting practice this year and I don't expect that to change at Fenway.