Originally Posted by
Mr0ctober
Anyone that has followed knows my biggest strength is season long stuff and with the emergence of updated win totals becoming more and more prevalent going to add a few here
Adding a couple adjusted win totals I’ll give some insight to why
Reds under 66.5 total wins (3u). This is somewhat a two team bet wrapped into one. The Reds after an awful start have since played pretty well all things considering. They carry a terrible run differential and have actually been a bit lucky according to my projections. Have them about +1.8 wins more than their true record should be. The Reds would have to go 33 and 38 over the remaining 71 games that features 36 games against teams .500 or above. They also 7 games against that daunting Marlins pitching staff. And another 12 games against the cubs who I am much higher on than their record. I have the cubs about 8 games better than their true record at the moment. Which is why this is more of a 2 team wager (I’m somewhat betting on the cubs here and against the reds). But even if the Reds handle the cubs better than expected I can still see this under getting home easily. Reds likely to move Castillo and anyone else possible. Castillo has been nails this season and his loss alone will greatly hurt this staff and bad bullpen. BE SURE TO SHOP AROUND WITH ONLY 71 games remaining a half win or a full win is extra valuable!!!
adjusted win total #2 & #3 are very correlated.
Athletics under 59.5 wins (1u)
Angels over 74 wins (1u)
The angels get 12 games against the athletics down the stretch. Therefore I’m hoping we get a boost Angels wins here who I think play a little better down the backstretch bc their pitching outside of Ohtani really can’t get any worse. As for the A’s the schedule is rough filled with teams like Mets/braves/Astros/Yankees/mariners and for a team that wanted to send their lone all star on a Commercial flight to the game— This team will do everything in its power to lose!