[bradleysnyder]

AMERICAN LEAGUEPreview
Matchup
Injuries
921 New York Yankees
Roger Clemens (R)
-1½ (-105)
-152
10 (EVEN)o
(-120)u


922 Toronto Blue Jays
Josh Towers (R)
+1½ (-115)
+137


Game can be seen on YES



THIS IS 5MINS PRIOR TO GAME TIME WITH THE YANKS AT -152.HOLLYWOOD HAS THEM AT -139 AND TORONTO AT +129...I SMELL A BIGGGGG FISH.I LIKE TORONTO BECAUSE OF THIS MASSIVE DIFFRENCE IN LINE.HOLLYWOOD IS TRYING TO PULL ALL THE INEXPERIENCE IN TO THE YANKS AT -139 AS A LAST MINUTE LOSERRRRRRRR.I PUT $200 ON THE JAYS JUST FOR THIS SAKE.I REALLY REALLY NEED THAT CARDINALS UNDER 8.BIG TIME GUYS.

[EaglesPhan36]

NYY were at -142 or so at BetJam all day. I wouldn't base anything on one book's price.

[EJandV]

Straight up no bs I look at the line changes more often than not as trickery , but thats just me . From pure year after year experience is where I get this from . Trickery comes in so many forms I would be a fool to type all the ways they do this. Of course some line changes are for good reasons .

[EJandV]

The no brainer line changes when a key player is in or out , no tricks there .

[maritime]

Straight up no bs I look at the line changes more often than not as trickery , but thats just me . From pure year after year experience is where I get this from . Trickery comes in so many forms I would be a fool to type all the ways they do this. Of course some line changes are for good reasons .

Books move lines to balance their action and maximize profit/vig. They move secondary to action by a small percentage of large bettors, not the action of a large percentage of average Joe's/small bettors. There are occ. exceptions to this. Like the whole Dr. Bob deal recently in football. They are not trying to "trick" you.

Today was a good example of line movement which I commented on in previous post, Dodgers vs. Reds. The Dodgers are seen mainly (by general bettors) as a playoff team this season. The Reds are seen primarily as one of the worst teams in baseball. Line moved away from the Dodgers and toward Cincy; the Reds actually went from underdog to favorite. Not to trick you. So called "smart money" came in on Reds (basically people who know and invest a hell of a lot more time and money on sports betting than the vast majority of us) and subsequently the line moved. Larger books often just follow suit. Anyway, I guess years of experience have actually taught me the opposite of you. I see line movement as another significant factor of handicapping based on the premise that people who know more than I do are moving the lines, particularly in baseball because line generally are set the day before the game (vs football where you have a week).

[EJandV]

Yeah I hear ya , I was talking about the MLB only . They play day in and day out and anybody can win more so than other sports playing fewer games . When you play day in and day out it kinda/DOES run together and what these so called big money people that are betting the Reds in the example you gave for tonight , what possibly could they know and where did they make this bet ? Does any of the 8 sportsbooks I belong to know this info ? Yeah , we dont know . I know what you are saying but seems pretty fuzzy since it would apply more to the actual site the bet was made on your example of the Reds . Maybe I missed something ?

[EJandV]

When 2 mlb teams are basically the same line or close I believe they give the run and a half to the team they think will win because most people would swing with the fav , same in football esp college with the -1 bs . More people would take the -1 thinking that means something that they have advantage taking the team classified as the fav . Please enlighten me ?

[EJandV]

Remember that at sportbooks there is a position of linesmaker , right ? Each guy or employee on that staff would be different . I can give you a great example of this on monday night . Final fav/dog count was 8 - 1 favs going by sportsbook.com final count on thegreek was 6 - 3 favs . Greek had twins and rangers - 1.5 sb had indians and athletics -1.5 understand ? Did this simple example here create anything $ wise with who people put their money on ? common sense would say oh yeah , so .... is day in day out thing , hard to track >>> FO REAL , hard to track that is from the perspective of trying to figure out the linemakers objective at the said sportbook . With me ?