[KVB]

I can identify Value with Detroit here. I can not only Forecast a close game and even in some cases a Detroit win, but the non predictive public gauge shows TB winning 5-2. This line has been inflated.

Tampa Bay bettors have been getting the short end of the stick all season with inflated prices and it's finally crossed with excellent value on the dog.

TB gives up too many runs as well and if you believe in using the Pythagorean Expectation over a mere 35 plays, and can work its influence into expectations for both teams, then this could be a spot for you.

I have picked up...

914

16-May

DET +182

This line has managed to stick around at elevated levels and I would take it all the way down to the +170 that BM is offering. I have it at a few levels, including +181, +179 and +178.

I plan to talk about how this play, and others like it, come to be in a video. This is why I posted this play.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Detroit with a 2 run shot in the top of the 4th.

[jjgold]

Tampa has been winning a lot of close games everything’s been going their way

[BeatTheJerk]

Detroit with a 2 run shot in the top of the 4th.

Nice write up KVB, glad to see one of the ways you break down a play for considering a wager.

[KVB]

Tampa has been winning a lot of close games everything’s been going their way

Yes, they have been lucky. We can quantify that with such a simple pythagorean formula, to a degree.



This is why I posted this play.

I want to go into with video, though.

[KVB]

TB threatening, already with a solo shot to make it 2-1.

Kluber is out.

Over the last 3 games the TB bullpen has pitched 13 innings.

Actually, it's the same for Detroit's relievers, lol, 13 innings over the last 3 days.

[Chi_archie]

TB trying to create the sneakiest 3 peat ever

[BeatTheJerk]

TB threatening, already with a solo shot to make it 2-1.

Kluber is out.

Over the last 3 games the TB bullpen has pitched 13 innings.

Actually, it's the same for Detroit's relievers, lol, 13 innings over the last 3 days.

KVB did you notice what the live line was in the 5th for TB ? If so was this something you were considering if the dog jumped out in front ?

[Headsterx]

Drama!

[KVB]

KVB did you notice what the live line was in the 5th for TB ? If so was this something you were considering if the dog jumped out in front ?

I actually considered starting a thread with the "buyback bets" lol

Wash/Mia was the main target, I posted about that in Gold's daily thread.

Not so sure about this game though. I looked LIVE and did think about having both dogs, but pre game I think this one would have required extra bets on the side of this bet, ones to sell back.

I didn't make those extra bets but with such a high number at +170 or more, definitely a strong candidate.

And TB making that bottom of the 8th push too.

[Headsterx]

Tied up 2-2! What’s the line now with Tigers? Sorry, watching BCS with gf and friends so can’t check right now.

[KVB]

Also, I would have taken TB LIVE at +155, and that line even swelled to +200 at one point.

Bam, Detroit solo shot.

[JayLA]

Tigers 3 -2

[KVB]

Tied up 2-2! What’s the line now with Tigers? Sorry, watching BCS with gf and friends so can’t check right now.

3-2 looking at Det more than -500 and TB better than +350.

[Headsterx]

3-2 looking at Det more than -500 and TB better than +350.

Damn, twice late in one game. 😂

[jjgold]

KVB your fukkin charmed

[BeatTheJerk]

Fuckin winner !!!

[KVB]

[jjgold]

Mother fukker

[BeatTheJerk]

Perfect GIF for the win.

[Otters27]

Nice call

[BeatTheJerk]

This was a real treat to get inside of a sportsbetting professional ideology for a brief moment to see how he triggers a play of value. I would love to see at least one of these a week moving forward if KVB would be so generous to share.