[LT Profits]

David Wells Last 3: 13.50 ERA, 2.37 WHIP
Braden Looper Last 3: 9.88 ERA, 1.98 WHIP

The natural knee-jerk reaction would be to look to the Over here, but 9.5 is rather high for a San Diego game. Remember that the Padres are only hitting .239 as a team vs. right-handers, and once Wells is out of the game, they have the lowest bullpen ERA in the National League. Also, the Cards are hitting a modest .257 vs. lefties, and their pen is not atrocious.

The other alternative is to look to the dog, and that is what I did here with the Pads. I think Wells is more likely to turn back the clock and throw a decent game than Looper is, as he is a converted reliever that looks to be wilting under this new workload. Also San Diego will have the edge in the late innings.

[BatemanPatrickl]

I like the pick LT.

[Checkerboard]

LT, I read that Looper has a 1.97 career e.r.a. over 28 games vs. San Diego and in May, in his only start against them this season, he pitched 7 shutout innings (3 hits) in a 5-0 victory.

Don't get me wrong here, I actually lean San Diego myself, but I came accross this and it's got me second guessing myself.

I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on this. I mean, maybe it's just as simple as Looper's past record vs. SDP means squat because he's just not pitching well lately as demonstrated especially in his most recent blow out loss to the Pirates last week . . .

[LT Profits]

Checker

Being a converted reliever, I think that all the innings are starting to take their toll now, and I don't see Looper getting good again unless he gets an extended rest. Thus, I am not concerned with his past success vs. the Padres, especially having not faced them since May, when he was pitching surprisingly well.

[EBone]

Checker

Being a converted reliever, I think that all the innings are starting to take their toll now, and I don't see Looper getting good again unless he gets an extended rest. Thus, I am not concerned with his past success vs. the Padres, especially having not faced them since May, when he was pitching surprisingly well.

I think this little tidbit quoted above is the key to the game. It is August and Mr. Looper is running out of gas and the Padres are better than the Cards. No need to get any deeper than that. My one and only bet tonight will be the San Diego Padres +118. My two cents.


E

[rjt721]

I actually played the Cards -123 big. While I do agree that Looper may be wearing down, I think Wells is the far bigger question mark. Actually, he's not much of a question mark at all - it's almost a given he'll get hit hard. His road splits are just atrocious - he has 1 quality start in 9 road outings. Sure, Looper could very well get hit hard, but of the two I think he's far more likely to pitch a good game. He's been reasonably solid at Busch, and there's no better position for a starter to have success than pitching at home against the Padres' offense. SD doesn't just struggle against RHP, they don't hit any pitching.

[curious]

I took the OVER on this game.