[leetreaper]

Both pitchers are UNDER machines. NO WIND. Should be an easy one.

3-2 FINAL.

Cheers, L33T.

[KiDBaZkiT]

Both pitchers are UNDER machines. NO WIND. Should be an easy one.

3-2 FINAL.

Cheers, L33T.

Yea Anderson career ERA 3.8 against Cubbies and Quintana career era against the Crew under 3. Should hit.

[leetreaper]

Yea Anderson career ERA 3.8 against Cubbies and Quintana career era against the Crew under 3. Should hit.

[jjgold]

[Art Vandelay]

Slight breeze blowing IN from left - That won't hurt! With ya on this one.

[ex50warrior]

On board too--good luck!

[leetreaper]

Slight breeze blowing IN from left - That won't hurt! With ya on this one.

[leetreaper]

Coach, call me for the college card.

[RockBottom]

The wind from LF is shielded by the the big message boards now.

[leetreaper]

The wind from LF is shielded by the the big message boards now.

Yep, the line is down to 8 now

[KVB]

Solid play here L33t, was on the Contrarian Fund radar and looks like it will just miss the cut. The raw forecast has just less than a point 9 game.

That’s a little disappointing it didn’t trigger at 8.5, I like the play.

Good Luck pal.

[mikmik]

That’s why I’m in the over bol

[Halfapointoff]

Thanks, over it is since you all use wind as a factor in handicapping. Lol.

[leetreaper]

That’s why I’m in the over bol

Thanks, over it is since you all use wind as a factor in handicapping. Lol.

CLOWN SHOW

[KVB]

Thanks, over it is since you all use wind as a factor in handicapping. Lol.

Actually, the wind blowing in isn't really accounted for in the market, yet. There is still overlay.

Even in Wrigley, but this year those UNDER bets in Wrigley have been failing.

A lot of UNDER bets all over the place have been failing all season long, though.

That windy weather also has an adjustment for NCAAF, one that is not yet stamped out of the market.

One reason could be the inconsistency of the wind and it's tough to make a forecast when that can change. That's why we use wind speed ranges, even then it can push out of the range.

It just depends on when you are counting the wind towards the market, I am talking about at the close.

In NCAAF, many don't wait until the close to catch the wind, because it can really move the line; which is further evidence the market isn't good at adjusting for the anticipated wind at the open, early in the week.

Weather matters, still, despite what many believe. Everything isn't "built into the line already" like so many seem to think.

[RockBottom]

Actually, the wind blowing in isn't really accounted for in the market, yet. There is still overlay.

Even in Wrigley, but this year those UNDER bets in Wrigley have been failing.

A lot of UNDER bets all over the place have been failing all season long, though.

That windy weather also has an adjustment for NCAAF, one that is not yet stamped out of the market.

One reason could be the inconsistency of the wind and it's tough to make a forecast when that can change. That's why we use wind speed ranges, even then it can push out of the range.

It just depends on when you are counting the wind towards the market, I am talking about at the close.

In NCAAF, many don't wait until the close to catch the wind, because it can really move the line; which is further evidence the market isn't good at adjusting for the anticipated wind at the open, early in the week.

Weather matters, still, despite what many believe. Everything isn't "built into the line already" like so many seem to think.

The cubs have played more unders than overs since the AS break. It has far more to do with lack of hitting and their good rotation than the wind at Wrigley. There will be some good weather games to take advantage of at Wrigley in September.

[inmyownzone]

Bol. Prolly would have tailed if I got up in time

[krk1030]

When does the game start? Batting practice seems to be running long.

[cmatth1326]

Good thing you didn’t. Too bad I did.

[krk1030]

Over will hit in the 3rd.

Can't believe anderson is still in

[mikmik]

No disrespect Leet, but your point about both pitchers era was the reason I liked the over. So calm your clown ass down.

[inmyownzone]

Good thing you didn’t. Too bad I did.

Yeah not lookin good here for leet

[jts1207]

No disrespect Leet, but your point about both pitchers era was the reason I liked the over. So calm your clown ass down.

Past posting plays is weak though

[Fingernail]

You never know at Wrigley Field...

[mikmik]

Past posting plays is weak though

I posted earlier that I was on over. Not talking smack but because someone is in the opposite side doesn’t mean it’s a clown show. Everyone is a internet tough guy

[Bostongambler]

Actually, the wind blowing in isn't really accounted for in the market, yet. There is still overlay.

Even in Wrigley, but this year those UNDER bets in Wrigley have been failing.

A lot of UNDER bets all over the place have been failing all season long, though.

That windy weather also has an adjustment for NCAAF, one that is not yet stamped out of the market.

One reason could be the inconsistency of the wind and it's tough to make a forecast when that can change. That's why we use wind speed ranges, even then it can push out of the range.

It just depends on when you are counting the wind towards the market, I am talking about at the close.

In NCAAF, many don't wait until the close to catch the wind, because it can really move the line; which is further evidence the market isn't good at adjusting for the anticipated wind at the open, early in the week.

Weather matters, still, despite what many believe. Everything isn't "built into the line already" like so many seem to think.

Ball being juiced supersedes any wind.

[RockBottom]

Ball being juiced supersedes any wind.

Some of those cold nasty days at Wrigley, doesn’t really matter if the ball is juiced or not. I leaned under today with Quintana pitching but passed after it went to 8.

[Halfapointoff]

Until baseball game changes to using a balloon or they are playing in hurricane force winds, I’m not considering wind as a factor. Football different. Just my two cents.

[Fingernail]

I bet you hit this.

[Art Vandelay]

Until baseball game changes to using a balloon or they are playing in hurricane force winds, I’m not considering wind as a factor. Football different. Just my two cents.

So if the wind is 20+, blowing out at Wrigley, which happens a lot in the spring - You wouldn't consider it a factor... C'mon!

[KVB]

The cubs have played more unders than overs since the AS break. It has far more to do with lack of hitting and their good rotation than the wind at Wrigley. There will be some good weather games to take advantage of at Wrigley in September.

Yeah, but that's just the current situation. When I'm talking about adjustments I'm talking about what we notice, across the league, over 1000s of games. The market still has a funny way of treating it.

It's independent of any other stat, like hitting, and is a very broad and global adjustment that can be added to almost any strategy. Markets make it, but they often lag and situations are different. It's gambling on the weather. Markets and overlays aren't much, but enough and as with anything good and sustainable, the percentages are small.

It's all about stacking those small percentages when you cap, hopefully enough to get an "edge".

When it comes to Wrigley, the broader margin was much higher, even versus the close, as little as 5 years ago. Then the market started catching up. When I say that this year it has been failing, I don't mean all the UNDERs in Wrigley just those in which that adjustment was applied.

The issue with Wrigley is the number of opportunities as well as sample size, but the percentages of beating or tying the market, as well as winning the bet are just enough. It used to be that the percentages of beating the market and winning the bet were very high, but over the least half or dozen years or so it’s became much more like the broader adjustment, with a thinner margin, and there has been a lot more pushes, especially against the close.

The win/loss record on my UNDER bets when that relevant adjustment in Wrigley has been made over the previous 3 years is 36-35-4, running 59% not counting the push, or right at 55% if you do. Of those 65 bets, 27 of them were 2018 and there were 15 wins…that’s 55%. So far for 2019, it’s running at 40% for Wrigley with less than 20 plays.

But the broader market adjustment, counting all the games, when applied to a bet has yielded, amazingly, but by no coincidence, a 68-54 record, 55.7%

Margins are tight in the gambling world.

[KVB]

Ball being juiced supersedes any wind.

It's insane.

[Fingernail]

JFC, it’s a baseball game! ⚾️

[leetreaper]

Gotta love the brokedikks discussion, priceless...

[Fingernail]

You got this.