[Razz]

Solid day Monday, easily winning the big play and going 4-2 overall. Smaller card Tuesday, probably going to add Vazquez against Bonderman if the price is right.

Medium:

Twins +115 (Baker/McGowan)
I’m a huge fan of Dustin McGowan. He’s going to be a top of the line starter very shortly. But he’s struggled to put back to back quality starts together. He’s coming off a win at Yankee Stadium, which may be a particularly big letdown situation. And I’m starting to really like Baker as well. He’s had very good success in his last six starts, his road numbers are good (4.78 ERA but a 1.19 WHIP signifies that ERA will improve) and he doesn’t walk anybody.
And as well as the Blue Jays hit lefties - and why it wasn’t surprising that they had success even against Santana - they haven’t been able to hit righties. The Twins do not have that problem, and not only do they have the better bullpen, they didn‘t have to use Neshek or Nathan today while the Jays used the heart of their bullpen. This should be a good opportunity for Minnesota to even the series.

Indians -125 (Sabathia/Matsuzaka)
Most of Matsuzaka’s troubles this year have come against elite offenses. Against the top ten offenses he has faced (Tigers, Yankees, Indians, and Rangers) he has a 6.69 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Against everyone else he has a 2.07 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Most importantly, the Indians weren’t impressed by him when they rocked him to the tune of 12 hits and 6 ER in 5.2 IP.
The Indians crush righties at home (25-10, 6.14 rpg) while the Red Sox have really struggled against lefties on the road (4-10, 3.78 rpg). Ramirez has awesome career numbers against Sabathia, but with Ortiz still injured CC will be more able to pitch around him, and none of the other Sox hitters have shown the ability to hit CC.

Light:

Nationals +150 (Bergmann/Kendrick)
Jason Bergmann’s ERA ballooned when he gave up 8 ER in 4.1 IP a couple starts ago, but at 4.46 it is almost identical to Kyle Kendrick’s 4.40. The difference is that Bergmann’s WHIP (1.20 to 1.33), BAA (.219 to .275), and K/BB ratio (54-28 to 17-11) are all much better. With the Nationals having the better bullpen and the Phillies coming off a long road trip, the price is right for Washington here.

[onlooker]

Not sure how my day will end, since my only game is still going for Monday. Athletics exploded today, and just need to hold on in the bottom of the 9th when it comes up.

Well for Tuesday, it is just one game again if I can get plus money tomorrow. That team is the Marlins. Currently sitting around -105, and the lowest I see out here is -103.

So as of now, the Marlins are just a lean.

Razz, good luck on Tuesday.

[WestsidePete]

Nice pics RAZZ...should go at least 2-1 ....that WAS/PHI is a tough one since PHI hits righties well but are coming off of a long road trip and WAS could steal game one.

[rjt721]

Good luck Razz. I'm leaning towards the over in the Rays/O's game, but I might just pass altogether on tomorrow's card.

[onlooker]

but I might just pass altogether on tomorrow's card.

I might be doing the same RJT. All depends on the Marlins line.

[MonkeyF0cker]

GL Razz. I think I'm taking the day off. Looks like a chalky day...

[Sundram]

Razz, any views on the under 8.5 in the Angels game tonight?
After what amounted to offensive explosions for both teams last night, I have the feeling that this one might "revert to the mean," and be low-scoring game. Having Dinardo & Escobar on the mound might produce a very different game from last night, in my view. I can also buy the 1/2 run at FDimes, making it under 9. Feedback?
Sundram

[Razz]

Razz, any views on the under 8.5 in the Angels game tonight?
After what amounted to offensive explosions for both teams last night, I have the feeling that this one might "revert to the mean," and be low-scoring game. Having Dinardo & Escobar on the mound might produce a very different game from last night, in my view. I can also buy the 1/2 run at FDimes, making it under 9. Feedback?
Sundram

I think Escobar will certainly do his part. But Dinardo isn't as good as he's been pitching, I expect his numbers to start regressing very soon. It also would worry me a little that both bullpens had to pitch so much last night. But overall, I certainly think the under is the best play in that game.

[Razz]

Light:

White Sox +107 (Vazquez/Bonderman)
Interesting that the Tigers would be around even money of the first game of this series with a slight pitching disadvantage and then in the -116 range in the second game with no pitching advantage. It’s indicative of how Vazquez is continually disrespected and Bonderman is over-respected. These pitchers have very similar numbers except for won/loss record. Bonderman’s ERA is slightly better and Vazquez’s WHIP is slightly better.
Both pitchers have struggled slightly with the other team’s hitters, but Bonderman has given up many more XB hits. While Bonderman’s road numbers are good (3.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .260 BAA), Vazquez’s home numbers are exceptional (3.36 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .217 BAA) and he has thrown consecutive complete games at home, taking the pitiful White Sox bullpen out of the equation. And it’s not like the Tigers bullpen is much better, so at this price, I like the home dog.

[hollins1000]

Respectfully disagree Razz. The above numbers tell the pitchers are pretty even. The difference then lies in the lineups... a definite win for the Tigers.

[bigboydan]

I'm liking the CC and the Tribe as well Razz.

[moses millsap]

Good call on the early game. Any thoughts on game 2?

[The HG]

I agree with your original 3 picks Razz, I think the edges are small but I think they are all the right sides. I'm already on Wash and Minn, and will probably wind up being on Cle as well. GL everyone.

[Razz]

Good call on the early game. Any thoughts on game 2?

Not really. I'd probably play over if I was going to make a play. It's hard for me to see both pitchers being productive, and the Tigers could easily put up 8 or 9 themselves.