[Believe_EMT]

this would be the part in the year where i consider either shutting it down or reducing my wager limits. i'm ultra conservative that way.

atl +115
sf +151
wsh +114
tor 102
tex +144

With Options: 16.44 Units
W/O Options: 8.66 Units

[oilcountry99]

Opt outs hurt us yesterday

[Believe_EMT]

sea +137

With Options: 18.69 Units
W/O Options: 10.91 Units

yes, that will happen. over the long haul though, the options will finish higher than doing nothing with -CLV

[Believe_EMT]

chc 125
nym 132
mil 138
sf +100
sd 110
cle 138
mia 102

With Options: 17.69 Units
W/O Options: 9.91 Units

[oilcountry99]

EMT....
Are you still opting out at FLAT or WORSE?

[oilcountry99]

sure thing, the cle game works.

although this approach will be evaluated based on new evidence.

i bet to risk on favorites, meaning my risk stays flat, at 1 Unit, which does equate to 1% of my BR in this sceanrio.

so it was risk 1 unit at -120 to win .83 Units

line was 110/100 right before game time. i risked .70 units to win .70 units on atl.

lost 1 units on cle, won .70 units on the atl. again, goal being to limit losses. the market is telling me cle was a poor investment so i got out of it the best i could.

cle 1 to win .83
atl .70 to win .70

writing it down i could see where it might sound borderline crackpot, playing both sides of the same game, but we can walk through the numbers later in more detailed fashion. sometimes it will work out to taking a loss no matter the outcome. but again, we aren't interested in a single outcome, we are interested in beating the market to the best number and listening to the market when it suggests we are wrong.

unfortunately i was pretty lazy in 2015 and 2016 so i don't have the full data set to break down into +/- CLV and fave/dog. will only cover about 2,500 games.

EMT....
Looking back on this post and the example given:
cle 1 to win .83
atl .70 to win .70

Typically I've been risking my to win amount on the opt out like this:
cle 1 to win .83
atl .83 to win .83

What made you decide to risk .70 on ATL? Is it because you're keeping your total outlay at or close to 1.5%? (.83 + .70 = 1.53)

Is this still your current form?

[oilcountry99]

optioned out of cin, took small loss on that one
optioned out of det took small win on that one
optioned out of laa and nyy took small win on both

splitting those long term numbers into dogs and faves really changed my approach

when it is -CLV on dog i'm coming back over the top and betting more than my original stake on the favorite

when it is -CLV on fave, i'm wagering to win half unit on fave and small stake on dog

example. laa was risk 1 unit to win .83 units. line moved against us so i put .33 units on the kc. long term goal again is to limit the losses when market tells me i'm wrong.

example #2, cin moved against us. that was risk 1 to win 1.32 units. i risked 1.57 units on st l. lost .25 units when reds cashed.

we'll ring up about another 600 games the rest of this season and as the result set grows i'll further tune my approach.

hope that helps

EMT...
sorry, I see this is your current method of money management

[Believe_EMT]

cin 109
col 117
atl 143
bos 147

With Options: 19.04 Units
W/O Options: 12.41 Units

sea was a play but game wasn't posted at 5D

[Believe_EMT]

hey Oil

i didn't option out of anything yesterday, just let it all ride. not sure what is going on these recent weeks, but the overnights are absolutely killing it. trying to time the market is never a good idea. but i've also never seen the negative CLV generate this many positive units in the 6 seasons i've been doing this.

however, i am keeping the record posted here as if we are following the system in strict fashion. it would be deceitful to be posting the results each day without posting the actual plays beforehand. at this point everyone in the know should understand, morning plays are posted, option out of flat or worse on line moves.

and i think i am going to change it up even more. right now when i option out of negative faves, it is to win a small amount should they win and lose a small amount should they lose. but i'm reconsidering that approach. -CLV faves hitting at 55% this season making break even price 123. the problem with tracking to each closing number is my sample size will never get large enough to determine proper course.

or i just trust that 55% number, let any fave under 123 ride and opt out of anything 124 or higher. which is logically unsound maybe. higher lines equates to higher win expectations. treading into over thinking it waters perhaps. numbers do support the opposite approach, fading lower price, since 2009

faves close
120...55.38%
130...55.39%
140...59.70%
150...59.32%

[oilcountry99]

EMT,
Great stuff, appreciate the honesty and consistent posting & tracking as well as the input on possible tweaks adjustments. Hopefully by seasons end we'll have a solid course of action for next season. I still find checking in for buy-outs a bit of a pain. If the system proves profitable it may be worth the investment next season.

[Believe_EMT]

wsh 148
phi +104

With Options: 20.24 Units
W/O Options: 13.60 Units

[Believe_EMT]

and i'm out!!! for now.

collect these 20 Units and call it a season. might leave some money on the table, but you never go wrong taking a profit. will continue to track and we'll see where we land.

the optioning part can be a pain, totally agree.

GL

[oilcountry99]

and i'm out!!! for now.

collect these 20 Units and call it a season. might leave some money on the table, but you never go wrong taking a profit. will continue to track and we'll see where we land.

the optioning part can be a pain, totally agree.

GL

Nothing wrong with 20 units! Thanks for bringing this strategy to the forum. Will you continue tracking here?

Do you have any other positive strategies you will be following and are willing to share?

Good luck to you moving forward!

[Believe_EMT]

mia +130
sf +120
cle +130
tex +149
tor +114

With Options: 20.28 Units
W/O Options: 13.39 Units

[Believe_EMT]

cin +138
sf 118
atl 108
sea +115
cle 129
bos +117
laa 121
sd 113

With Options: 22.27 Units
W/O Options: 13.02 Units

[Believe_EMT]

another few days like that and i'll be jumping back in

bos +160
laa -148
sea +130
det +160


With Options: 19.59 Units
W/O Options: 8.92 Units

[dogman]

Just saw this thread for the first time. Keep up the good work, great thinking and in my opinion this will work long term.

[dogman]

Also check out a new book called " A Logical Approach to Sports Betting" by Ed Miller. It talks alot about what's in this thread(the markets). It's only $9.99 on Kindle and that's a steal.

[dogman]

What's the consensus of when to opt out. Is it still at 5 cents or any number worse than the number bet at?

[Believe_EMT]

col 108
bal 105
sea 114

With Options: 19.88 Units
W/O Options: 9.07 Units

[Believe_EMT]

welcome to the party dogman. abnormally high winning rate this year compared to past, so view the results to this point in that scope.

i might have a look at this Miller fella and his book, thanks.

as for the handling flat lines or when to opt out, since i believe market is efficient, if i'm not beating the number i will lose. so i have started to opt out of line that does not improve from when i bet it. the approach should always be, at least from viewpoint, limit my losses. i know long term +CLV is going to generate a solid financial return. i need a way to offset the plays that will eat away at my profits.

that's just my take. i'm certainly not the smartest man on this board, possibly not even in this thread. if you find the approach appealing, take it, think it over and make adjustments better suited to your style.

[Believe_EMT]

phi 121
mia 106
col 133
det 115
chc +117
min 141

With Options: 21.76 Units
W/O Options: 11.86 Units

[dogman]

EMT,

Late to the party as usual but really like the thinking here.

[Believe_EMT]

pit +140
st l +157
laa 111
sea 121
det +120
cle +108
sd +124
chc 105

With Options: 23.20 Units
W/O Options: 14.35 Units

[Believe_EMT]

EMT,

Late to the party as usual but really like the thinking here.

i'm thinking this year is so completely abnormal i'm not sure how to proceed. whomever is behind these overnight moves is up a ton of money this year and no one wins forever. there will be a correction.

i'm also thinking that a line finishing flat is indeed a negative line movement. if i'm hitting these things reduced at nickel lines, flat is not good.

example. on Det +120 today. if that line were a dime, it would be 127/117 or 128/118, a couple cents adjustment on either side.

for it to finish flat where i played it, additional movement would have to take place on Bal so that the line closes at 130/120.

therefore, a true flat finish would be one that moved in my favor 2 or 3 cents. we are indeed splitting hairs and getting quite incremental in our thoughts, but that is where i am at. do i move the bar to "option out of any line that is not 4 or more cents in my favor" by game time? over thinking it?

[Believe_EMT]

nickel lines otb

bal is now 128/118

[oilcountry99]

i'm thinking this year is so completely abnormal i'm not sure how to proceed. whomever is behind these overnight moves is up a ton of money this year and no one wins forever. there will be a correction.

i'm also thinking that a line finishing flat is indeed a negative line movement. if i'm hitting these things reduced at nickel lines, flat is not good.

example. on Det +120 today. if that line were a dime, it would be 127/117 or 128/118, a couple cents adjustment on either side.

for it to finish flat where i played it, additional movement would have to take place on Bal so that the line closes at 130/120.

therefore, a true flat finish would be one that moved in my favor 2 or 3 cents. we are indeed splitting hairs and getting quite incremental in our thoughts, but that is where i am at. do i move the bar to "option out of any line that is not 4 or more cents in my favor" by game time? over thinking it?

This is the type of questions that need to be analysed further...where is the sweet spot? does one exist? As we gain more data hopefully this becomes clearer. I believe this strategy has merit, the question is what's the best way to maximize profits. This strategy is not for the lazy, too bad we can't set auto-opt outs with the sports book like you can with stocks. Maybe there is a way but it's above my capacity and pay grade. lol

Keep up the good work EMT

[dogman]

EMT,

I see what you're saying but I think it just comes down to, if you have better number compared to the closer, no matter the difference, you have a good wager.

When playing these numbers in the morning at a reduced book we are giving the bookmaker a less that a 1% hold which is great so opting out when you have a better number seem like the wrong thing to do.

[Believe_EMT]

st l 103
col 147
bos 148
kc +136
laa +103

With Options: 25.48 Units
W/O Options: 16.97 Units

[Believe_EMT]

chc +115
kc +101
sf 124

With Options: 26.83 Units
W/O Options: 20.33 Units

[Believe_EMT]

nym +100
tor +139

With Options: 25.31 Units
W/O Options: 17.33 Units

[oilcountry99]

team	open	bet at
CIN	-125	-128
CHC	-125	-128
TOR	140	139
HOU	-144	-147
NYM	100	100

[Believe_EMT]

hou 132
nyy +107
bal +101
det +143
tor +137

graded tor at full loss, 5D was the only one, i think, that it finishing -CLV

With Options: 23.31 Units
W/O Options: 15.33 Units

[oilcountry99]

team	open	bet at
BAL	105	101
CIN	114	112
DET	157	143
STL	-105	-108
KCR	120	118
TOR	143	137
HOU	-125	-132
ARI	-110	-111
SEA	-105	-105
NYY	112	107

as of 7:55 am

*yesterday [June 1, 2019] CIN & CHC should not have been on the list, strange error with SBRodds yesterday morning

[Believe_EMT]

lad 135
phi 126

With Options: 22.01 Units
W/O Options: 12.10 Units

now you're making me think i need to make plays at 6:30 and 7:55 a.m. Oil.