Projected over-under win totals that should catch your eye

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If you don't count fantasy league winnings (and losses, mostly), the next bet that I place on a Major League Baseball team will be the first. But the lines that come out of casinos are always fascinating, because the folks who set those must be really good at what they do in order to make money, and you assume there is some solid metrics behind their numbers.


Among the team over/under win totals posted by Caesars, these are some that are eye-catching:


• The Tampa Bay Rays: 84½. I'd run to take the over.


Remember last spring when they traded Corey Dickerson, and all the questions that followed about whether they were tanking? As it turned out, the Rays -- playing in the same division as two 100-win teams -- finished with 90 wins, hanging on the edge of the playoff chase well into September. The work of the front office and staff last season -- including the trade of Chris Archer to the Pirates -- was greatly admired by folks from other teams, and not only does Tampa Bay appear poised to have a strong team again, but according to our Keith Law, it's backed by one of the best farm systems in baseball.


On top of that, the Rays are playing in the same division as two teams that will be all about development this year, the Orioles and Blue Jays, giving them opportunity to feast on bad teams for about a quarter of their schedule.


The 84½ line doesn't seem to fully acknowledge how good the Rays were last year and how good they'll be again in 2019.


• The Baltimore Orioles: 58½. I'd take the under.


Baseball's worst team went 47-115 last year, with a run differential of minus-270. They were terrible and are years away from being relevant again, so you can understand why, under the current rules, new baseball operations chief Mike Elias hasn't thrown resources into improving the 2019 team.


As long-standing members of the AL East, they will play 35 percent of their games against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays, and while they frustrated the Yankees last year in head-to-head matchups, there's no reason to believe that they have the firepower to match up with that trio of powerhouses.


It's really hard to lose 115 games within the context of an MLB season, but it's hard to see how the Orioles would be 11 games better than they were last season. The Orioles' payroll year to year.


2015: $125 million
2016: $169.2 million
2017: $180 million
2018: $150 million
2019: ~$85 million


• The Pittsburgh Pirates: 76½. I'd take the under.


When Pittsburgh traded Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole last season, the Pirates were accused of tanking. I don't think that was their intent at all; they weren't aiming to win 60 games. Rather, they just considered two good assets that would soon depart as free agents, and wanted to be sure they recouped some value before those players walked out the door. Now, you can argue about the haul they got in return, but the Pirates' work over the past couple of winters has been about creating a new generation similar to the teams that were so dangerous in the three-year period of 2013-2015.


If the Pirates played in the AL Central or the NL West, arguably baseball's two weakest divisions, they would be a threat to contend this season. Instead, they have to climb over the Cardinals, who are improved with Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller; the Cubs, who made the playoffs last year; the Reds, who clearly should be better after a series of improvements to their rotation and everyday lineup; and the Brewers, who led the NL in runs scored last season.


Maybe this is the year that a young pitcher like Jameson Taillon fully harnesses his stuff and climbs into the top echelon of NL starter. Maybe Joe Musgrove has the impact the Pirates had hoped for when they got him in the Cole trade. But I think the division's strength hurts Pittsburgh's chances of getting back over .500.


• Miami Marlins 64½. I'd take the under.


They went 63-98 last season, and it's unclear how they could improve. They just traded J.T. Realmuto, the game's best catcher, and the other teams in the NL East have been engaged in significant drives to improve; the Marlins are more isolated at the bottom of the division.


• Texas Rangers 71½. I'd take the under, and again, it's about divisional context.


The Astros, Oakland and Angels are all trying to win and will likely look to add players during the course of the season. The Rangers went 67-95 last season and they haven't made moves that suggest they'll take a big jump. Rather, they mostly made deals that suggest they'll be prepared to pivot into sell mode, with a lot of one-year commitments like those to infielder Asdrubal Cabrera (for $3.5 million), starting pitcher Shelby Miller ($2 million) and reliever Shawn Kelley($2.75 million).


This means that if the Rangers struggle early, they'll have the option of smartly flipping those players for prospect return. They also signed Lance Lynn to a three-year, $30 million deal, and catcher Jeff Mathis to a two-year contract. But the Rangers' big push could start to come after the 2019 season -- as they prepare to move into their new ballpark and as the Astros move a little closer towards the end of their window of success.


News from around the major leagues

The universal designated hitter will eventually become a reality, but it's important to remember that it's a piece of leverage that's part of the collective bargaining landscape. The union wants it, and teams absolutely want it, to protect their most valued assets from injury. But MLB will make sure to not simply concede. It will be part of what's bartered, perhaps for the 2020 or 2021 seasons within the context of a CBA extension, or for the next CBA deal, after the '21 season.


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