[strictlywinners]

OK WE ARE UP 109.1 in last 2 days and today we have very full board. And all those that keep teling me oh i cant risk that much on a random game then stop gambling and start taking my picks cause its not a gamble its not luck i win its al i do and its what i will continue to do.

Reds 4
Astros 4
Detroit 4
Whitesox 9
Bluejays 10
Yankees 28
Dodgers 4
Braves 6
Angles 10
Cleavland 16
Pads 12
Orioles 12

Like i said when i posted yesterday i know allot of these may not seem like great plays to u but if u take one u must take them all and for the exact unit structure i have. U dont like big money lines then take runlines they work for me too but if u decide to go with runlines u must do al games on runlines. Take these games and win huge tommorrow. I have to pack for 6 am flite to miami im takin my winnings and goin to southbeach for the weekend

[Savant]

Now thats how you gamble n live life!!
Enjoy yourself!
Thanks for sharing your picks with us.

[trifectabx]

I HOPE you bring your LAPTOP so you can give us the Sat. Picks..

[forty40]

confidence breeds success...nice picks strictly

[Savant]

confidence breeds success...nice picks strictly

well said

[babaoriley]

So am I right in my math? You are playing approximately 188 units tomorrow? Including 70 on NYY (at -250). It's late and my math could be fuzzy, but 188 units? A base $100 unit player would be placing $18.800 in MLB July games tomorrow. For the sharks, there's simply no way to keep up with this system. This is why i was saying it's necessary for me to pare down my unit structure. Why not make your 4 unit plays into 1 unit plays? 8 of your old units would be 2 units, 10 would be 2.5 units, 9 would be 2.75 units. This makes everything simpler and also doesn't change the actual ratio of the structure.
Reds 1
Astros 1
Detroit 1
Whitesox 2.25
Bluejays 2.5
Yankees 7
Dodgers 1
Braves 1.5
Angles 2.5
Cleavland 4
Pads 3
Orioles 3

This would be your unit chart, same ratios apply, but everything is more manageable and you aren;t able to inflate your winnings by saying "I won 100 units" even though you did. I guess what I'm saying is that a baseline of 4units=1 "real" unit works better in my opinion. It's your system so do what you like. I'm just saying that this looks a hell of a lot sharper than betting 70 units to win 28 tomorrow on the Yanks. instead, you'd be saying 17.5 to win 7.

You have half-unit games (your 2's) and so on...

It just helps to have a baseline of 1 unit (as it makes it easier for everyone following to convert). Again, same ratios, same payouts, different structure... That's essentially what I did with your yesterday numbers. On winning days it magnifies the hell out of your units won. On losing days, it could bankrupt a person if they played their standard unit size (188 units is a ton ). Your system, but this is how I would break it down if it were my system. Still gives a true picture of your overall winnings, but in a more user friendly context.

EDIT: In addition to that conversion, I reduced my actual unit figure by half.

[isetcap]

...but these go to 11!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akaD9v460yI

[AC1318]

...but these go to 11!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akaD9v460yI

funny

[curious]

So am I right in my math? You are playing approximately 188 units tomorrow? Including 70 on NYY (at -250). It's late and my math could be fuzzy, but 188 units? A base $100 unit player would be placing $18.800 in MLB July games tomorrow. For the sharks, there's simply no way to keep up with this system. This is why i was saying it's necessary for me to pare down my unit structure. Why not make your 4 unit plays into 1 unit plays? 8 of your old units would be 2 units, 10 would be 2.5 units, 9 would be 2.75 units. This makes everything simpler and also doesn't change the actual ratio of the structure.

Instead of arguing about the unit system, just lower your bet size per unit. Reducing the unit ratings by a factor of 4 won't work. The unit ratings are what they are for a reason. This is like the 3rd or 4th post where you waste everyone's time arguing about this. Lower your bet size per unit if you don't have the stomach for making big bets. I don't know what your bank is, but you should size your bets to be (Bank X 1% / 10) per unit. This makes a 10 unit pick your "standard" bet at 1% of your bank. You could never go broke betting this way. If your bank goes down you lower your bet size per unit. If your bank goes up you increase your bet size per unit. Example. If your bank is $2,000 then your bet size per unit would be $2,000 X 1% / 10 which is $20/10 or $2. So, on a 10 unit game you would bet $20, or 1% of your bank. The big unit plays would be more than 1% of your bank but the likelihood of winning is much higher so that is okay. Under no circumstances ever bet more than 5% of your bank on any one game. Do a search on "kelly criterion" for an in-depth explanation of this betting strategy. It is a risk management strategy. You size your bets based on the amount of risk you are willing to take. My risk tolerance is zero which is why I use 1% of the bank divided by 10 as the unit size. If you want to private message me and give me your bank size I will tell you what your betting unit should be.

You wouldn't be betting 7 units on the yankees, you would be betting to win 7 units, which at the currently stated odds would be risking 16.2 units to win 7 units.

For lines that are above 0 you risk the number of units. For lines that are below zero you bet to win that number of units, which means you have to risk more units than you want to win. If you don't do this you won't be successful because the big favorites win so much more often your winnings won't make up for the dogs and the small favorites when these lose.

Curious

[boldin]

I apologize if this was brought up already but why do you bet on so many games? Wouldn't you be better off financially if you just stuck to a smaller percentage of games? I understand you've had a couple winning days in a row so it doesnt really matter then but why bother with all the smaller plays? By doing that many games, the juice will eat you alive.

[boldin]

btw, my one and only play today is the Phillies +118. 2 units.

[curious]

I apologize if this was brought up already but why do you bet on so many games? Wouldn't you be better off financially if you just stuck to a smaller percentage of games? I understand you've had a couple winning days in a row so it doesnt really matter then but why bother with all the smaller plays? By doing that many games, the juice will eat you alive.

I place between 4 and 10 bets per day, everyday. Because I bet both the ML and the Total this is not the same as number of games. I would guess number of games is 3-6. I bet on the games which are good bets. There is no "right" number of games to bet on. If there was a day where I didn't find any good bets I wouldn't bet on any games.

There is no correlation between betting on fewer games and being better off financially. You have to bet more when the probability of outcome is higher and less when the probability of outcome is lower. Some games you don't bet on at all. I've looked at StrictlyWinner's picks. Some I disagree with, but for the most part I think he is fairly close on the probabilities, which is where the number of units to bet comes from.

Curious

[trifectabx]

This is my 2nd day following strictly's unit wager.. Just for today w/ all his picks at $5.00 a unit.. Total wagered $851.00. The only thing I had to leave off is the padres. I was going down the list.

[boldin]

I will say this. It does take guts to bet that much on the Yankees. What is at risk, 68 units? I don't know if I could or would do that.

[babaoriley]

...but these go to 11!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akaD9v460yI

Absolutely perfect. Thank you isetcap.

[babaoriley]

Jeez, i just realized that you, too, brought up Kelly. Listen Curious, we're all aware of Kelly, Martingale/Pyramid/etc. I own a nice, well worn copy of Buchdahl's seminal book "Fixed Odds Sports Betting". Probably half of the other members on here own one too. Apparently, you do not understand that a scaled down unit system would work. We'll leave it at that.

[curious]

Jeez, i just realized that you, too, brought up Kelly. Listen Curious, we're all aware of Kelly, Martingale/Pyramid/etc. I own a nice, well worn copy of Buchdahl's seminal book "Fixed Odds Sports Betting". Probably half of the other members on here own one too. Apparently, you do not understand that a scaled down unit system would work. We'll leave it at that.

Kelly, martingale and pyramid in the same sentence? What do they have to do with each other?

Curious

[babaoriley]

They are all staking strategies.

[strictlywinners]

ok bout to go out to dinner with my girl in miami. INstead of everyone tryin to change my unit structure how bout u lower ur bet incremint if 100 is to much for u cut ur bet to 50 the numbers i give are simply moneymultipliers to insure that the rite distribution of ur bankroll is going into the most valuable games and yes i was scared to put yankees in for that but that is what my evaluation said to do im up a lil over 10 grand in last 2 days so its not that big a risk. Either take my games or dont but please stop tellin me how i have to change my structure or take less games cause im winning and im winning allot so if it aint broken dont fix it

[curious]

ok bout to go out to dinner with my girl in miami. INstead of everyone tryin to change my unit structure how bout u lower ur bet incremint if 100 is to much for u cut ur bet to 50 the numbers i give are simply moneymultipliers to insure that the rite distribution of ur bankroll is going into the most valuable games and yes i was scared to put yankees in for that but that is what my evaluation said to do im up a lil over 10 grand in last 2 days so its not that big a risk. Either take my games or dont but please stop tellin me how i have to change my structure or take less games cause im winning and im winning allot so if it aint broken dont fix it

Exactly what I told the crackhead.

[strictlywinners]

baba i do understand that a scaled down unit system would work. for example i have a 16 and a 4 game they could be a 4 and a 1 but thats not the way i do things sorry