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July 16 Ganchalysis
Cubs ML (-145): The Cubs are really starting to turn things around this year, which is not a huge surprise since they always had the components of a good team. On the other side, San Francisco continues to be a losing team, wilting when challenged by good teams over the course of games.
Rich Hill has been a bit off recently, but the break will probably do him some good, and SF doesn't pose a big challenge offensively, especially if slumping Bonds sits, which he may. Lincecum of course has real talent, and may easily be able to keep SF in the game.
But all in all, it's going to be tough for SF's aging and lifeless team to pull out a road win here against the upwardly moving Cubs, so the Cubs have value here even as a good-sized favorite.
Toronto ML (+145): This is another Yankee game where the line is just a bit too much in their favor than it probably should be.
Towers is shaky, but so is Igawa. The Yankee lineup is strong, but Toronto's is now doing decently as well. And Toronto probably has a stronger bullpen. Toronto could easily jump out early, and hold the Yankees off.
There is a lot of uncertainty involved here, conferring value to Toronto as a sizable underdog.
Colorado/Pittsburgh under (9.5 -110): Both starting pitchers have a bit more upside than this line is giving them credit for.
Buchholz has been very up and down in his career, but he clearly has the ability to have strong starts, and in this one, his first on his return from the bullpen, a spot start, he may well throw an "unexpectedly" strong start, especially since Pittsburgh's lineup is only average.
On the other side, Van Benschoten has been learning how to be successful in the majors, and could easily have a reasonable start here, 5 or 6 innings, and 3 ER or so. Pittsburgh has an OK bullpen for the later innings.
The runs will probably come in at a consistent pace in this one, but 9.5 is a highish number for a NL game with potentially decent starters and lineups that aren't too fearsome.
Kansas City ML (+165): Boston was challenged by Toronto in their last series, leaving with only a split, and Kansas City is in fact not too much different from Toronto.
KC has an unspectacular but solidly productive lineup, especially against weaker starters, and a relatively deep and effective bullpen that is performing a bit under the radar. This is a similar makeup to that of Toronto, and for this game, KC may even enjoy a starting pitching edge, but certainly aren't at a starting pitching disadvantage.
Bannister can get hit, but is also a bit of a winner, getting guys out more often than not. Kason Gabbard is OK at times, but nothing special.
Add it all up, and KC has value here as a big underdog IMO.
Cleveland ML (-180): The White Sox are not a winning team at all right now. Half of their lineup is weak, and the other half is comprised of slow and underperforming power hitters. In this game, with a sub-par starter going, and facing a lefty, they will be hard pressed to come out with a win, and Cleveland has decent value even as a huge favorite, IMO.
Cleveland's lineup is balanced and productive, and should be able to get to Danks and the Sox' bullpen, and be able to pull out a win even if the admittedly iffy Cliff Lee gets hit, which is not likely to be too bad if he does.
Baltimore/Seattle under (9.5 +100): Horacio Ramirez has pitched well at Safeco this year, even as he has struggled mightily on the road. This has always been the case with him, as he benefits greatly when he pitches in spacious, pitcher-friendly parks such as Safeco.
Burres should enjoy a similar enhancement, and if he does, this game should have a tough time getting into double digits, as Baltimore's lineup is not one that is likely to force the issue if Ramirez is going well.
Washington ML (+100), under (9 +100): Houston's lineup is likely to suffer at RFK, struggling to score against Washington's now trademark pitching style of overachieving mediocre starters and a deep but mediocre bullpen. This formula works very well at home against weaker offenses, and Houston looks like it should fit that bill perfectly.
Of course, Houston's pitching should be similar in this game, but Washington should have a small edge at home here, and they probably have value at even money.
The total is a bit high because the starters look to be a bit vulnerable on paper, and they may be, but the total of 9 gives a decent cushion considering the mediocre lineups and pitcher-friendly park involved in this game.
Texas/Oakland under (9.5 -105): Both of these lineups are struggling, and both starters look like they may have decent upside for this game, so the highish total for McAfee of 9.5 looks like it might bring yet another home under for Oakland in this game, which has been a year-long trend for them.
Dallas Braden has done very well in the minors recently, and he might be ready to finally turn into a decent major league starter. Jamey Wright looks like he may be getting better with each start, as he has claimed to feel like he is doing.
At McAfee, with these two offenses struggling to put together big innings, the zeros should line up fairly regularly on the scoreboard, and I see this game as having trouble getting into double digits in scoring, conferring decent value to the under at 9.5.
Milwaukee ML (-150), RL (+145): Milwaukee's lineup has cooled off a bit recently, and that is probably the level at which they will perform for the rest of the year. But that is still much better than Arizona's offense, and the pitching matchup here doesn't figure to rectify that imbalance at all, in fact it probably figures to exacerbate it.
Dave Bush can be vulnerable, but Arizona won't likely challenge him, and is even likely to let him off the hook a few times if he is off of his game in fact. And Micah Owings has good talent and potential, but he doesn't look ready yet to be in command of a major league start, and Milwaukee's bigger bats will likely pose a constant challenge to him, and hit him for a numbers of runs eventually.
As such, I see the ML and the RL as both having decent value in this game.
Mets/San Diego under (8.5 -110): San Diego started hitting better at home before the break, and there were a bunch of games with low totals that went over. But that has left this line a bit high IMO, and this game I think is more likely to stay under than to go over.
Jorge Sosa was having a bit of trouble before he went on the DL, but it was for a strained hamstring, not an arm problem, and starters coming off of the DL for non-arm related injuries often benefit from the rest and come back relatively strong. I think he will have a quality start here, and go deep into the game, giving up few runs.
On the other side, David Wells keeps chugging along, and he has done quite well at home this year, and figures to do so again with the benefit of rest from the break. The Mets have a decent lineup, but it is also the kind of lineup that is affected a good amount by the park it is playing in, and I think Wells will be able to keep the Mets' scoring modest here.
After the starters, the 2 bullpens are of course deep and strong, and should be able to keep the scoring down. All in all I think the under in this game has modest but solid value.
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Originally Posted by bigboydan
