[jamesjMidwest]

Greetings SBR forum members. I posted MLB picks on here for a while last year but quit as I was still refining my process and hit a bad streak. I have been working on a system for 4 years and it appears to have been refined enough to be reasonably profitable. I have had a good beginning half of the season so I thought I would share my plays for the 2^ndhalf. I won’t go into details of the analytics of my system, but I will give you some guidelines I follow:

1. I never bet favorites of -1.30 or higher. I don’t care if my system says a team should be a -2.00 favorite and they are -1.35 I won’t play them. IMO anyone who thinks they are going to be profitable long-term laying -1.50 or -2.00 or something like that is delusional.

2. I bet either a half-unit (most of the time) or a full unit (on occasion). None of this crap of getting behind and suddenly betting 5 or 10 or however many units to try and catch up.

3. I want any underdog I bet to have a reasonable chance to win. So if my system makes a dog at +1.40 but the line is +2.00 I am not betting on them even though there appears to be “value.” I generally won’t bet a dog that I rate worse than +1.10.

4. My analytics are based 95% on pitching. I bring batting into the equation for grading or eliminating plays but most of my evaluation is based on pitching.

5. I usually end up with 3 to 7 plays a day. I bet totals and sides.

6. Obviously there is NO sure thing, and like any prognosticator I have hot and cold streaks. A friend told me, “Part of being a winner is learning how to deal with losing.”

Here are my plays for tonight. The lines are what I got this morning at one of my outs (I personally have 5):

	LINE	Units
ATL @ MIA OVER 8	-1.10	0.50
MIA VS ATL	+1.13	1.00
ARZ @ CHC	-1.05	0.50
MIN @ TOR UNDER 9'	-1.10	0.50
TOR VS MIN	-1.28	0.50
DET @ KC	-1.07	0.50

Good luck!

[jamesjMidwest]

Not a good beginning…full unit play lost BIG. Still not a total disaster.

YTD: 3-4 (-0.60 units)

Today’s plays:

	LINE	Units
MIA VS ATL	+1.11	0.50
CIN VS STL	+1.08	0.50
SD @ NYM	+1.24	0.50
MIL VS WAS	-1.06	0.50

Good luck!

[jamesjMidwest]

Pretty much a break-even day yesterday.

YTD: 6-7 (-0.62 units)

Four very early games (earlier than 1pm) and of those I like:

SD @ NYM OVER 8	-1.15	0.50
STL @ CIN	-1.28	0.50

Later games will post around noon.

Good luck!

[jamesjMidwest]

CORRECTION: STL is at CIN (changed).

[jamesjMidwest]

Later plays today:

ARZ @ CHC	+1.01	0.50
SF @ SEA	+1.34	0.50
COL VS HOU	+1.14	0.50

[jamesjMidwest]

Dropped ½ a unit yesterday. I am not getting killed but I am bleeding myself at this point.

YTD: 8-10 (-1.12 units)

	LINE	Units
ARZ @ CHC	-1.03	0.50
ARZ @ CHC OVER 9	-1.20	0.50
ATL VS LAD	+1.05	0.50
SF VS MIL	-1.08	0.50

Good luck!