Projecting how the rest of the 2018 season will play out

Dan Syzmborski
ESPN INSIDER



With the All-Star Week behind us, it's now only a hop, skip and a jump from the trade deadline, which kicks off the homestretch of the baseball season. By this point in the year, the Cinderellas and premature pumpkins are more or less determined. While there probably will be some upsets, we know who the great teams are and who the lousy ones are with a lot more certainty than we did in March.

That doesn't mean that teams can't still improve themselves, so the week before the trade deadline is always a good opportunity to revisit baseball's playoff odds, both for if teams stand pat and if teams are able to add two wins to their team roster strength. The Dodgers already managed that feat when they acquired Manny Machado in last week's trade with the Orioles. Unfortunately for all of the other contending teams, Machado was the easiest way to add two wins; with him off the table, it probably will take some creativity and/or more than one transaction to beat what the Dodgers just managed to do.

American League


AL East

Team Record GB Pct Div% WC% Playoff% Odds +2 wins Diff
Boston Red Sox 106-56 -- .654 79.0% 21.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0%
New York Yankees 102-60 4 .630 21.0% 78.9% 99.9% 99.9% 0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays 79-83 27 .488 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 2.2% 1.7%
Toronto Blue Jays 76-86 30 .469 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Baltimore Orioles 52-110 54 .321 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The fate of the AL East is fairly clear: The Yankees and the Red Sox will go to the playoffs, the Blue Jays and Orioles will not. The only real uncertainty about the difference between playoffs and no playoffs is whether the Rays can have a hot enough second half to sneak past both the Mariners and the Athletics. In this case, it's probably a "no." A big pickup by the Rays might move their probability from the 1-in-200 range to 1-in-45 or so, but given the franchise's default position of selling, the Rays need to be a lot closer to make them buyers.

Not shown in the chart is that while the Red Sox and Yankees have both amassed the roster strength and enough wins in the bank to almost guarantee their playoff appearances (100.0 percent really is simply >99.95 percent), which one of them wins the division is very much up in the air. That's quite important, of course, given MLB's playoff structure since 2012, which adds a second wild card but makes each wild card half as valuable as before. Previously, wild cards lost out only in home-field advantage, which is a very small effect in baseball compared to other sports

By adding two wins more than the Red Sox at the deadline, the Yankees would see their divisional probability jump to 38 percent from 21 percent. If Boston adds two additional wins, its odds go up to 90 percent. The difference between the two teams essentially comes down to the standings as the ZiPS projections see the Yankees' roster as one win per 250 games better than Boston's. Boston's five-game lead stands as the current separator.


AL Central

Team Record GB Pct Div% WC% Playoff% Odds +2 wins Diff
Cleveland Indians 91-71 -- .562 99.4% 0.0% 99.4% 100.0% 0.6%
Minnesota Twins 77-85 14 .475 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 3.5% 2.8%
Detroit Tigers 68-94 23 .420 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago White Sox 60-102 31 .370 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas City Royals 54-108 37 .333 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


The rest of the division made it interesting for a while, aided by the massive underperformance of the Cleveland bullpen, a malady the Indians have addressed by adding Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the roster not just for this year, but for years to come (two additional for Hand, five for Cimber). There remains a very slight chance in the projections that everything comes together for the Twins, but it's very unlikely, no matter what Minnesota does.
Cleveland doesn't have quite the same motivation to make short-term additions as the Red Sox and Yankees do, as they don't have their divisional standing in jeopardy anywhere to the degree of the AL East teams. Hand-Cimber helps in the playoffs too, but without an in-season advantage, one can see why Cleveland wanted players who would help in future years if the Indians were going to give up their top prospect.



One additional thing to watch is Jose Ramirez's quest for a significant record. At 6.9 WAR, he's already an MVP candidate even if he retires tomorrow to become a competitive cupcake baker. With just over a third of the year remaining, he has the chance to do a lot more than just a run-of-the-mill MVP-caliber-season. ZiPS projects Ramirez to finish with a 10 WAR season (baseball-reference flavor).



Let's look at the previous 10-plus bWAR seasons by third basemen in history: Al Rosen, 10.1. No, I didn't forget the rest of the list. That is the full list of 10 WAR seasons by a third baseman in baseball history. Ramirez has already entered the top 100 (he's at 90th through Saturday) with a whole third of a year to go. And ZiPS projects him with a 47 percent chance to have the best season by a third baseman in history. Not Indians history. Not AL history. Not modern history. All of it, all history, ever. Ramirez even just passed a healthy Mike Trout through Saturday's games, which I'm not sure is even legal.


AL West


Team Record GB Pct Div% WC% Playoff% Odds +2 wins Diff
Houston Astros 103-59 -- .636 98.2% 1.8% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0%
Seattle Mariners 92-70 11 .568 1.7% 76.6% 78.3% 87.9% 9.6%
Oakland A's 87-75 16 .537 0.1% 20.6% 20.7% 32.0% 11.3%
Los Angeles Angels 80-82 23 .494 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 2.6% 2.0%
Texas Rangers 69-93 34 .426 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


Six games doesn't sound like an insurmountable edge, but the Astros have been underperforming their runs scored/runs allowed by a significant margin, beaten only by the magnitude of Seattle's overperformance, currently at 10 games. At this point, it would be a major upset for Seattle to make up those games, sort of like trying to catch up to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in points late in a fight.



But what the Mariners can do with a two-win addition at the deadline is to put away the A's and cement that second wild card. Unlike Seattle, Oakland is actually outscoring its opposition, making that three-game lead look a bit on the shaky side. One can see why Oakland is a deadline buyer for the first time since 2014.


National League


NL East


Team Record GB Pct Div% WC% Playoff% Odds +2 wins Diff
Philadelphia Phillies 90-72 -- .556 53.5% 19.9% 73.4% 86.9% 13.5%
Atlanta Braves 89-73 1 .549 41.9% 23.1% 64.9% 80.6% 15.7%
Washington Nationals 83-79 7 .512 4.6% 7.3% 11.9% 25.0% 13.2%
New York Mets 71-91 19 .438 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami Marlins 68-94 22 .420 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


The fairly low playoff probability of the Nationals illustrates the very real mess in which the team finds itself. There was good reason to believe that Washington could hold off Atlanta and Philadelphia for one last run at the division, but instead the Nationals are significant underdogs as we near their last opportunity to make a big trade before Bryce Harper hits free agency. Even with a major addition, the Nats still only become a one-in-four team to make the playoffs in the projections, which makes one wonder, if Washington goes 2-5 or something this week, do they actually become sellers? And more interestingly, do they become sellers of Harper?



Philadelphia and Atlanta find themselves on the flip side of Washington, in the position of the dog that caught the car. What now? Do they start trading off significant pieces for a short-term gain, even if the players traded are important to each team's long-term outlook? I suspect that Philadelphia and Atlanta will be reactive, a staredown to who cracks first and makes a big move followed quickly by a similar trade by the other team.


NL Central



Team Record GB Pct Div% WC% Playoff% Odds +2 wins Diff
Chicago Cubs 94-68 -- .580 75.5% 19.1% 94.6% 96.6% 2.0%
Milwaukee Brewers 90-72 4 .556 22.7% 49.7% 72.4% 84.6% 12.2%
St. Louis Cardinals 83-79 11 .512 1.5% 12.6% 14.1% 27.2% 13.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates 80-82 14 .494 0.2% 3.1% 3.3% 7.2% 3.9%
Cincinnati Reds 72-90 22 .444 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


Chicago hasn't made any significant trades yet, unless you think a lot more of Jesse Chavez's likely performance at Wrigley than I do. Milwaukee's losing streak has made an addition more urgent, because now the Brewers are playing catch-up with a weaker roster. Milwaukee already appeared to be a team willing to be aggressive before it lost the NL Central league -- it did sign Lorenzo Cain this winter, tried to sign Yu Darvish, and attempted to trade for Jose Quintana last season -- and I don't expect the Brewers to be any less willing to make a splashy pickup now.
St. Louis gets a significant boost from a pickup, but the trickiest thing for St. Louis is how to even add two wins. For example, the gaping holes in an offense that has been weaker than recent teams is corner outfield. But you're not exactly going to give up on Marcell Ozuna, and Dexter Fowler is around for a long time to come. The team's bullpen could use an extra arm, but adding two wins in two months in a bullpen is significantly harder than you might think.
NL West


Team Record GB Pct Div% WC% Playoff% Odds +2 wins Diff
Los Angeles Dodgers 93-69 -- .574 80.4% 10.9% 91.2% 99.6% 8.4%
Arizona Diamondbacks 86-76 7 .531 9.5% 24.3% 33.8% 51.2% 17.4%
Colorado Rockies 86-76 7 .531 8.3% 22.6% 30.9% 46.4% 15.6%
San Francisco Giants 82-80 11 .506 1.8% 7.6% 9.4% 19.9% 10.5%
San Diego Padres 67-95 26 .414 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


No team in baseball gets a larger projected boost in its playoff chances than Arizona does. The Dodgers picking up Machado didn't just help L.A. by making the team better, that trade also hurt Arizona by depriving it of the chance to acquire Machado, something the Diamondbacks were actively trying to do. Machado would have provided an even larger boost to Arizona than Los Angeles, the Diamondbacks' offense being weak with a team OPS+ of 82.
How bad is an OPS+ of 82? There are 430 teams that have made the playoffs, going back to 1903. There are also 430 playoff teams that beat an 82 OPS+ at the plate, the current all-time low being the 83 OPS+ produced by the Diamondbacks in 2007. If there's any team in baseball that needs to find a way to acquire offense, it's Arizona. When Paul Goldschmidt was slumping in May and the Diamondbacks lost A.J. Pollock, the team scored fewer than three runs a game that month.