1. #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Thursday, 7/12/18

    3 MLB Plays Thursday

    Athletics +181 (Heritage)
    Nationals / Mets UNDER 6.5 +110 (Heritage)
    Dodgers / Padres UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)


    YTD: 263-269-13, +18.22
    Points Awarded:

    Brian Fallon gave LT Profits 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    Chi_archie
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    good luck
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  3. #3
    cjpenn3
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    Curious what you show for the side and pitching matchups for the Phillies/O's and Dbacks/Rockies? Thanks

  4. #4
    44 Mag
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    Charlie Morton due for regression or what ????

  5. #5
    Civerus
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    Nice day yesterday, get em again!

  6. #6
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjpenn3 View Post
    Curious what you show for the side and pitching matchups for the Phillies/O's and Dbacks/Rockies? Thanks
    Phillies 53% (-113)
    Both starters about equally above average by around 10%.

    D-Backs 56% (-128)
    Model loves Arizona as real line is close to a Pick. Personally I hate large variances and another reason I am staying away is Ray health concerns (which probably accounts for weird line). Ray rates about 12% above average (assuming full health), Freeland right around average.

  7. #7
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Charlie Morton due for regression or what ????
    Actually Morton has pitched in line with his metrics this year as he has good 3.05 xFIP. Play has more to do with Oakland still being seemingly underrated, I only get Houston 61% (-156).

  8. #8
    ikid2groove415
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    Mourning LT - Oakland is very HOT- billy have done it again -

  9. #9
    Regul8er
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Phillies 53% (-113)
    Both starters about equally above average by around 10%.

    D-Backs 56% (-128)
    Model loves Arizona as real line is close to a Pick. Personally I hate large variances and another reason I am staying away is Ray health concerns (which probably accounts for weird line). Ray rates about 12% above average (assuming full health), Freeland right around average.
    I like this pitching matchup, and would generally be all over the under. But my bookie screwed with my lines, mostly because Ive been torching him on unders the last few days. I can get Over 10 at -110 right now.....which is -185 on 5d currently. That's an 75 cent difference, feel like I have to take Over just because.
    175 pts

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  10. #10
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regul8er View Post
    I like this pitching matchup, and would generally be all over the under. But my bookie screwed with my lines, mostly because Ive been torching him on unders the last few days. I can get Over 10 at -110 right now.....which is -185 on 5d currently. That's an 75 cent difference, feel like I have to take Over just because.
    FWIW, I have Colorado total at 11.4

  11. #11
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Actually Morton has pitched in line with his metrics this year as he has good 3.05 xFIP. Play has more to do with Oakland still being seemingly underrated, I only get Houston 61% (-156).
    I didn't even notice you had played Oakland.

  12. #12
    ChocMilk23
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    Ill take Oakland for some early action

  13. #13
    bballs84
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    Caution on my As.. Need to start keeping track but have been fading pitchers coming off DL all year and has been hitting at a high %.. You ever keep track of this LT? Like I said need to start charting this stat.. Would say hitting at 75% clip this year.. Cahill older and has been on the shelf.. BOL with your plays

  14. #14
    Brian Fallon
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    Great job yesterday - again LT! LEGGO!

  15. #15
    KDF500
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    Thoughts on O\U on Astros tilt?

    BTW great work pal!

  16. #16
    flakeandbake
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    I would only bet Athletics today if the line closed below +175

    That was the case and line movement with the 4 of last 5 games they won. All reverse line movement except the night Verlander pitched

  17. #17
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by KDF500 View Post
    Thoughts on O\U on Astros tilt?

    BTW great work pal!
    I get 8.5, probably a pass. Yes, line is trending toward 7.5, but I suspect Over would be juiced if it hits that number.

  18. #18
    bballs84
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    Quote Originally Posted by bballs84 View Post
    Caution on my As.. Need to start keeping track but have been fading pitchers coming off DL all year and has been hitting at a high %.. You ever keep track of this LT? Like I said need to start charting this stat.. Would say hitting at 75% clip this year.. Cahill older and has been on the shelf.. BOL with your plays
    Only 3 2/3 for Cahill

  19. #19
    bballs84
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    Another brilliant performance by As BP

  20. #20
    LT Profits
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    Looks like +20 cracked!

  21. #21
    MontrealCrw
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Looks like +20 cracked!
    Finally
    My man
    Congrats

  22. #22
    jjgold
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    Tremendous

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