1. 06-07-18 06:48 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Thursday, 6/7/18

    1 MLB Side Thursday

    Orioles +138 (Heritage)


    YTD: 189-189-13, +18.64
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  2. 06-07-18 07:09 AM #2
    44 Mag
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    What's the story with this guy for STL, Miles Mikolas ??? I've never heard of him until a few weeks ago. A regression candidate, or for real???
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  3. 06-07-18 07:14 AM #3
    grease lightnin
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    Orioles again? Do you have your record on O’s bets this season, LT?
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  4. 06-07-18 07:15 AM #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    What's the story with this guy for STL, Miles Mikolas ??? I've never heard of him until a few weeks ago. A regression candidate, or for real???
    I kind of like him as I have him rated slightly above average. Still, I have Richards in same boat. will be curious to see what line opens up at.

    As for your regression question, yes there can be some with a 3.38 xFIP vs. a 2.49 ERA, but that xFIP is still good,
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  5. 06-07-18 07:18 AM #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by grease lightnin View Post
    Orioles again? Do you have your record on O’s bets this season, LT?
    I will try and pull in a few minutes, but it would not mean anything since I model every game on its own merit. And this play has more to do with me hating the Blue Jays rotation, I think all of their starters rate lower than they are perceived.
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  6. 06-07-18 07:19 AM #6
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    3 MLB Plays Thursday

    3 MLB Plays Thursday

    Dodgers / Pirates UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Rockies / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
    Orioles +138 (Heritage)
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  7. 06-07-18 07:20 AM #7
    El Nino
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    No Rangers?
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  8. 06-07-18 07:23 AM #8
    grease lightnin
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I will try and pull in a few minutes, but it would not mean anything since I model every game on its own merit. And this play has more to do with me hating the Blue Jays rotation, I think all of their starters rate lower than they are perceived.

    I know you model, not busting your chops, just curious.

    I mean.... you’re .500 and up 18 units
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  9. 06-07-18 07:26 AM #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    No Rangers?
    No. I have Houston 66% (-194). I am high on Cole and I still have Hamels rated below average, he shows a BUNCH of red regression flags (.254 BABIP, 84.6% strand rate, 4.22 xFIP).
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  10. 06-07-18 08:34 AM #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by grease lightnin View Post
    Orioles again? Do you have your record on O’s bets this season, LT?
    I have played Orioles on Money Line 20 times this season before today:

    6-14, -4.36
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  11. 06-07-18 08:47 AM #11
    grease lightnin
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I have played Orioles on Money Line 20 times this season before today:

    6-14, -4.36
    Pretty close to their season win percentage.

    They are my team and I won’t fade them... but it seemed obvious to me that fading them would be a cash cow early on...

    Just like riding them every game a few yrs back was a cash cow.

    It seems like there are a couple MLB teams every year like this either way.

    I know you model each game independently and my guess is these trends rarely show up in your picks.

    Because it is a square way to bet, I guess, but it sure does seem profitable.
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  12. 06-07-18 08:52 AM #12
    DigBick86
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    The problem with Orioles is that they cant score
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  13. 06-07-18 08:53 AM #13
    DigBick86
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    But im tailing again we were just unlucky with Mariners yesterday
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  14. 06-07-18 09:37 AM #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by DigBick86 View Post
    But im tailing again we were just unlucky with Mariners yesterday
    Worse luck with Phillies, losing on walk-off slam by Heyward.
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  15. 06-07-18 10:02 AM #15
    DigBick86
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Worse luck with Phillies, losing on walk-off slam by Heyward.
    Thats true
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  16. 06-07-18 10:37 AM #16
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    1 MLB Addition

    4 MLB Plays Thursday

    Dodgers / Pirates UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Rockies / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
    Orioles +138 (Heritage)
    Astros / Rangers UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
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  17. 06-07-18 11:21 AM #17
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    2 AFTERNOON MLB Additions

    6 MLB Plays Thursday

    Dodgers / Pirates UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Rockies / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
    Marlins +207 (Bookmaker)
    Phillies / Cubs UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
    Orioles +138 (Heritage)
    Astros / Rangers UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
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  18. 06-07-18 11:29 AM #18
    jz833
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    3 MLB Plays Thursday

    Dodgers / Pirates UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Rockies / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Heritage)
    Orioles +138 (Heritage)
    I'm slamming the Rockies/Reds under...have that feeling
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  19. 06-07-18 11:34 AM #19
    jjgold
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    If you keep taking your Orioles LT you’ll be working the overnights at the UPS packaging center
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  20. 06-07-18 01:31 PM #20
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    No Action on Pirates Under due to Dodgers late pitching change.
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  21. 06-07-18 01:36 PM #21
    Conqueror
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    Quote Originally Posted by DigBick86 View Post
    The problem with Orioles is that they cant score
    Exactly.
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  22. 06-07-18 03:48 PM #22
    tripled83
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    Quote Originally Posted by jz833 View Post
    I'm slamming the Rockies/Reds under...have that feeling
    Score was 5-2 when I left Great American in the 7th. Get home and they’re still playing
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  23. 06-07-18 06:39 PM #23
    jz833
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    Quote Originally Posted by tripled83 View Post
    Score was 5-2 when I left Great American in the 7th. Get home and they’re still playing
    Lol tell me about it...thought it was going to be a push smh
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  24. 06-07-18 07:19 PM #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by jz833 View Post
    Lol tell me about it...thought it was going to be a push smh
    Lost the Push on wild pitch with two outs in the 9th!
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  25. 06-07-18 07:50 PM #25
    jz833
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Lost the Push on wild pitch with two outs in the 9th!
    Lol exactly, I couldn't believe it
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  26. 06-07-18 08:05 PM #26
    Trep
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Lost the Push on wild pitch with two outs in the 9th!
    Technically two wild pitches
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  27. 06-07-18 08:10 PM #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trep View Post
    Technically two wild pitches
    Even better!
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  28. 06-07-18 08:56 PM #28
    RavensFan2k3
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    Go O’s!
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  29. 06-07-18 08:58 PM #29
    RavensFan2k3
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    Holy penetrate it was just 4-1, it’s now 4-4???
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  30. 06-07-18 09:56 PM #30
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    And O's lose after taking 4-1 lead into bottom of 9th. It's a lovely day.
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  31. 06-07-18 10:35 PM #31
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    Finished 2-3, moving on...
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  32. 06-07-18 10:56 PM #32
    Regul8er
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    Ya, the O's bullpen is a nightmare.......this stuff has been happening all year, so not totally out of the norm.

    Just gotta move on.
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