1. 05-18-18 07:00 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Friday, 5/18/18

    1 MLB Side Friday

    Phillies +111 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 144-143-9, +18.59
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  2. 05-18-18 07:13 AM #2
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    2 MLB Plays Friday

    2 MLB Plays Friday

    Marlins / Braves UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
    Phillies +111 (5 Dimes)
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  3. 05-18-18 08:03 AM #3
    2daBank
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    Why in the fukk are my cardinals favs tonight??

    I've never been one these tin foil hat wearing conspiracy nuts, I have always believed in capping the games, trusting my methods/process, and playing where I see value.
    I'm not into attempting to "read" anything into lines or any such thing, I'm not 1 to tell others my way any better than theirs and never will.

    That all being said if there was ever a "fishy" line that screamed "trap" (or whatever guys want to call it) this has to be it!! In all seriousness even the juice lovers that have never seen a MLB fav they didn't like are gonna eat this line up!!! typical surface stats/numbers easily point phils. Digging deeper into my process there still little to nothing that says cards should be favs here, I have number damn near completely flipped which typically leads me to a play obviously, but most the time perception of teams doesn't point exactly the same direction!!!

    Something just feels wrong here imo.. obviously nothing I'm saying means in slightest phils have to or are going to win, I have their chances just slightly better than 50/50. I just don't understand cards being lined where I have Phillies chances?!???!!
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  4. 05-18-18 08:17 AM #4
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Why in the fukk are my cardinals favs tonight??

    I've never been one these tin foil hat wearing conspiracy nuts, I have always believed in capping the games, trusting my methods/process, and playing where I see value.
    I'm not into attempting to "read" anything into lines or any such thing, I'm not 1 to tell others my way any better than theirs and never will.

    That all being said if there was ever a "fishy" line that screamed "trap" (or whatever guys want to call it) this has to be it!! In all seriousness even the juice lovers that have never seen a MLB fav they didn't like are gonna eat this line up!!! typical surface stats/numbers easily point phils. Digging deeper into my process there still little to nothing that says cards should be favs here, I have number damn near completely flipped which typically leads me to a play obviously, but most the time perception of teams doesn't point exactly the same direction!!!

    Something just feels wrong here imo.. obviously nothing I'm saying means in slightest phils have to or are going to win, I have their chances just slightly better than 50/50. I just don't understand cards being lined where I have Phillies chances?!???!!
    Home field + perception. Cards are short home fave though, which would line up with truly neutral "50/50".
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  5. 05-18-18 08:38 AM #5
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Home field + perception. Cards are short home fave though, which would line up with truly neutral "50/50".
    Obviously I totally agree w you playing Phils. Game just has a weird feel to me for whatever reason.. If it wasn't for the reds cards are not even a .500 team. Wacha surface stats are nice but he sporting worst k/bb ratio of his career, by far biggest hard hit ball percentage of his career. Then there cards offense which is nothing short of freaking putrid!! Carpenter and fowler are absolute black holes in top/middle of order, ozuna been disappointing, if it wasn't for Pham they would never score any runs!!! The only real plus I saw for cards is this ump Rackley has always had some home team lean and this year he been especially homerific!!!
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  6. 05-18-18 09:29 AM #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    The only real plus I saw for cards is this ump Rackley has always had some home team lean and this year he been especially homerific!!!
    Uncanny!

    Home All-Time: 95-59, +18.70u, +12.1% ROI
    Home 2018: 7-0, +5.59u, +79.8% ROI

    Just not sure I would trust Umps H/A records as much as I would trust OV/UN records, as Sides could be pure luck while OV/UN ties to Ump's strike zone.
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  7. 05-18-18 09:33 AM #7
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Uncanny!

    Home All-Time: 95-59, +18.70u, +12.1% ROI
    Home 2018: 7-0, +5.59u, +79.8% ROI

    Just not sure I would trust Umps H/A records as much as I would trust OV/UN records, as Sides could be pure luck while OV/UN ties to Ump's strike zone.
    Yea could def be luck, randomness, whatever. Just found it pretty crazy when I looked!!
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  8. 05-18-18 09:50 AM #8
    MMANick
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    Good luck today, LT!

    What are we showing for my Tigers tonight, I'm liking them as dogs again...
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  9. 05-18-18 11:23 AM #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    Good luck today, LT!

    What are we showing for my Tigers tonight, I'm liking them as dogs again...
    I don't like them at all, Seattle 64% (-178)
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  10. 05-18-18 11:24 AM #10
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    1 MLB Addition

    3 MLB Plays Friday

    Athletics +109 (Heritage)
    Marlins / Braves UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
    Phillies +111 (5 Dimes)
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  11. 05-18-18 01:49 PM #11
    hit_me90
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    2 MLB Plays Friday

    Marlins / Braves UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
    Phillies +111 (5 Dimes)
    LT can you pls tell me what the model has for Braves and mets game on total. thank you very much
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  12. 05-18-18 02:54 PM #12
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    NO ACTION on Braves Under (2nd straight day) due to pitching change.
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  13. 05-18-18 02:56 PM #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_me90 View Post
    LT can you pls tell me what the model has for Braves and mets game on total. thank you very much
    Mets is 7.1 so nothing to see with consensus total of 7.
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  14. 05-18-18 03:01 PM #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_me90 View Post
    LT can you pls tell me what the model has for Braves and mets game on total. thank you very much
    After subbing in Wisler, I get 9.3 for Braves.
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  15. 05-18-18 04:09 PM #15
    hit_me90
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    thank you for your help LT
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  16. 05-18-18 05:00 PM #16
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    1 Last MLB Addition

    3 MLB Plays Friday

    Athletics +109 (Heritage)
    Orioles +144 (Heritage)
    Phillies +111 (5 Dimes)
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  17. 05-19-18 10:48 AM #17
    hit_me90
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    Good morning LT, if you can pls tell me the total you get for clevland and houston. ty very much
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  18. 05-19-18 01:29 PM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_me90 View Post
    Good morning LT, if you can pls tell me the total you get for clevland and houston. ty very much
    See Saturday thread.
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