[Razz]

Decent enough night Thursday, easily won the big play as Gaudin got ripped, but lost the small play on the Reds.

Nationals +142 (Bergmann/Willis)
Jason Bergmann just does not deserve his 1-5 W/L record. His stats (3.47 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) are almost identical to Beckett’s (3.44 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and Bonderman’s (3.48 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), but those two guys are 12-2 and 9-1, respectively. Bergmann’s .203 opponent’s batting average would be second in all of baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. I’m not saying the guy deserves the Cy Young, but looking at his game log, it’s hard to imagine what the Nationals are doing on nights he’s pitching that have resulted in him having only one win.
I should have beaten Willis his last time out, but he escaped with a no decision thanks to the Dodgers of all teams blowing a 9th inning lead. Still, he’s been average at best this season, but continues to draw the price tag of an elite pitcher. 7-7 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.54 WHIP just doesn’t cut it, and at home it’s an even worse 2-5 with a 4.94 ERA. With the Nats having been more effective against lefties, as evidenced by their 13-13 record against LH starters, and with the better starter and bullpen in this one, I think the price is generous here. It’s even more so if Cabrera doesn’t play, which is a possibility.

Reds +149 (Harang/Maine)
Oddly enough, both of these pitchers have been better on the road in their careers, and while Maine has been fantastic this season for the most part, he is only 3-3 and the Mets are only 4-4 in his home starts. NY hasn’t scored a lot of runs in home night games and they really don’t have that much of a lineup advantage in this one. They do possess a strong bullpen advantage, which is a concern, but Harang is a workhorse and could last quite awhile here if this turns into a pitching duel.
Going 9-2 for a 36-53 team is truly impressive. There’s really no other way to slice it, but having 25% of your team’s wins at the All-Star feat is worth commending, especially with little to no bullpen help. Harang won’t be intimidated by the Mets lineup, and at 3-2, I don’t see a way to avoid playing this.

Orioles -127 (Bedard/Buerhle)
Mark Buerhle has been fantastic lately. He may have a little letdown after pitching with a chip on his shoulder the last month and then signing a long-term extension, but I can’t really criticize him. His team is an entirely different matter, as it is rare that the Orioles have lineup and bullpen advantages, but they really do in this series. Even with the shaky outing Guthrie gave tonight, these advantages were made clear in the late innings, and I think they’ll carry over tomorrow. I didn’t want to mess with the righty-righty matchup, as that sort of favored the Sox, but this lefty-lefty matchup is an entirely different matter. For a bad team, the Orioles have been surprisingly good against lefties, hitting 20 points better against lefties than righties, and they actually have a winning record against LH starters, averaging 5.3 rpg. The White Sox are the worst team in baseball against lefties, hitting under .240 as a team, and going 9-16 and scoring less than 4 rpg against LH starters.
As good as Buerhle has been, Erik Bedard has been better. These Orioles are quietly assembling a very nice pitching staff, and Bedard is the best of the bunch. He’s been particularly dominant at home, where he’s given up 8 total ER in 6 starts and 39 IP since April. I honestly can‘t even begin to fathom why he wasn‘t on the All-Star team. Despite having a better ERA and WHIP than several of the pitchers that did appear and 24 more strikeouts than anyone else in all of baseball, he was snubbed. He’ll take out that vengeance on the White Sox, and a shutout or near miss wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Blue Jays +138 (Marcum/Tavarez)
I find this hard to pass up. Tavarez has been fairly consistent, but the Blue Jays got him pretty good in his two appearances against them (0-1, 13 hits and 9 ER in 10 IP). Wells (7-13, 2 2B, HR) and Rios (8-12, 2B, 3B, HR) flat out own him, and Thomas (4-11, 2 2B, HR), Overbay (5-17, 4 2B), and Hill (3-12, 2B) are the only other Jays who have faced him at least 10 times, all with pretty good success.
Meanwhile, Shawn Marcum has been the Blue Jays’ best pitcher this year by far. His road numbers are fantastic (3-1, 2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), and the Red Sox are 7-39 (.179 BAA) with 13 K combined against him. IMO the Red Sox have the most overrated bullpen in the league and the Jays have the most underrated - the fact that they are among the league leaders with their closer and primary setup man having missed over 100 combined games is quite impressive - and the price is right for me in this one.

All are medium-sized plays for me. I am going to withhold from playing my boy Matt Cain, who will probably win, but I can’t really justify laying odds even with him against a Dodgers team that has given him serious problems in the past and has a better lineup and bullpen.

[Terpman92]

Good luck Razz! I will be on most of yours on Friday when I finish my card. Nice writeups.

[Razz]

Thanks Terp.

Hill is on the DL, I somehow didn't catch that earlier. It really doesn't affect anything, but just figured I'd correct myself.
I'll also be looking to take a shot with Dinardo against Santana if it's around +200.

[bigboydan]

I'm liking your Reds play.

GL you you Razz

[moses millsap]

Good luck Razz, treading lightly on dogs for now.

[MJFtheGenius]

I disagree with your orioles and Reds play, infact im on on the White Sox tonight as in the past they own the Orioles. I do like your Blue jays play though

[LT Profits]

DiNardo is at +235 Razz

[onlooker]

Good call yesterday on the Twins.

Today I am with you on both the Nationals and Blue Jays. Lets cash those babies, and good luck to you on the rest of your plays.

[Razz]

Thanks everyone for your thoughts. I'm not passing up this price in a game between two even teams. As much as the righty-righty matchup favored the Twins yesterday, the lefty-lefty matchup favors the A's tonight.

Athletics +215 (Dinardo/Santana)
You cannot say enough about Johan Santana's greatness, but the fact of the matter is this. He pitches for a .500 team, and betting on him every start has been a losing proposition. His career numbers against the A's are only slightly above average (4-2, but a 3.30 ERA and 1.17 WHIP), and while he is likely to have a good outing, it's far from a certainty against an A's team that has been killing lefties. They are averaging 1.3 more rpg against LH starters and are 16-12 in those games.
Lenny Dinardo doesn't seem to be overpowering or capable of being dominant, but he has been very good this year and is not worthy of being this kind of a dog against a mediocre team. The Twins' two best hitters are lefties, and it's reflected in their sub-.500 record against LH starters, and the fact that they score 0.9 rpg fewer against lefties than righties. Torii Hunter has great numbers against lefties, but the rest of the team has had very little success against them.
The Twins have a bullpen advantage, but with the A's hitting lefties much better than the Twins and the pitching matchup not being as much of a mismatch as many believe, the price is right here.

[EBone]

Razz, got the Reds and Jays with you. I had the Orioles marked but I just can't seem to disregard history with those dudes especially as a chalk selection.

Best of luck to you, sir.



E