First half Ganchalysis picks were 34-12 +20.7 units for totals, 34-29 +3.7 units for money lines, and 11-15 -0.6 units for run lines, for the curious.


Cincinnati/Mets under (9 -140): I took this when it was around -120, but I'd still recommend it at -140.

Both starters are given to implosions and bad runs, but after the rest bestowed by the break, they should both have solid starts here at Shea, where it won't be too hot and humid.

Taking this at 9 is important because of the likelihood that both will throw good but not shutout games, and it protects against a 4-4 game resulting in a 5-4 final, more likely here than usual.

Arroyo had a rough May and June, but he started to do better in July, and he should benefit from the rest and the environs of Shea, a welcome change from his home park. Hernandez struggled in June and July himself, but that was all on the road, against strong offenses in hitter-friendly parks. He still did well at Shea during that time, and he should be recharged a bit here. Cincinnati's lineup is decent, but shouldn't pose any kind of unusual challenge.





Baltimore ML (-140): This I also took when it was around -120, but I would also still recommend it at -140.

Success from Jeremy Guthrie is no surprise anymore, but this line is not giving enough credit to how much the White Sox are still likely to struggle. The Sox lineup full of unsteady power hitters and mediocre role players should have a tough time being productive against Guthrie's stuff, which should keep them off-balance enough to prevent them from connecting solidly too often. The Sox aren't likely to be able to force the issue against Guthrie, and if they can't, another 8-inning, 2-run type of start from him is looming.

On the other side, Garland has been struggling with shoulder issues all year, which he has acknowledged have kept his mechanics off and his velocity down at times. It's not clear how he will be tonight, and of course Baltimore's lineup is not likely to test him if he is throwing well. But even if he does, Baltimore will still have a good shot at winning if Guthrie matches Garland.

All in all, it will be a tough fight for the White Sox to come out on top in this one, and as such Baltimore has value, even at -140, IMO.





Boston ML (-115): Roy Halladay seems to be having real, if minor, problems on the mound, and based on the reports and quotes I've seen, they haven't been solved yet. Facing Boston at Fenway does not offer him circumstances that will be kind to him if he is still having troubles with his mechanics.

Time Wakefield is steady, and he has pitched well against Toronto this year, which stands to reason a bit, as they have the kind of lineup he can manufacture 7-inning, 2-run types of starts over and over again.

Boston's bullpen, which suffered a few mishaps at the end of the first half, will be raring to get back on track, and will not likely be particularly vulnerable against Toronto's good but not fearsome lineup.

Add it all up, and Boston should still have a good chance of winning even if Halladay rediscovers his vintage form. At only -115, they have value IMO.





Yankees ML (-140): Andy Pettitte's struggles at the end of the first half are cause for concern with a play on the Yankees here, but they are the only concern. No one on the team seems to be worried about it, and they expect him to be good again right off the bat in the second half, so I'm willing to buy into that for this game, considering how many outs Tampa Bay may provide on that bet if Pettite struggles again.

James Shields has been good, and will likely continue to be good for the rest of the year. But he got hit a bit as the half wore on, and he is just not strong enough overall to compensate by himself for all the vulnerabilities Tampa Bay is likely to have in this game. Their bullpen is terrible, and the Yankees should have a strong edge if the game is close when the bullpens get involved. And if Pettitte does come around in this game, Shields will be hard-pressed to leave with a lead anyway.

Tampa Bay could win this, but not 40% of the time, IMO. So the Yankees do have value here as a substantial road favorite, even though the Yankees were a terrible bet on the road in the first half.





Oakland/Minnesota over (8.5 -115): Chad Gaudin has been good in general this year, but I think he is in for a letdown in this game. Facing the Twins lineup in this park does not present promising conditions for him. In his start against Minnesota earlier this year, he gave up 5 walks and 8 hits in 5 innings at McAfee, but got away with yielding only 2 runs. But if he puts almost 3 runners on base per inning at the Metrodome, he is not likely to get off so easily.

On the other side, Scott Baker has been wildly volatile this year, as he has been his whole career. If he gets hit here, the over is almost a lock. Even if he throws a good game, however, the over should still have a reasonable chance to win, as Oakland should enjoy hitting here, as they are well-suited as a team for the Metrodome.

All in all, it will take a concert of less than likely events for this game to stay under IMO.