Ended the first half on a very nice run. Hopefully it continues. The first one is a small play, a game where the line is a few cents high, but nothing special. The other one I like a lot.
When thinking of the AL pitchers who had a great first half and will likely have a mediocre second half, several names come to mind as possibilities. Carmona, Beckett, Haren, Guthrie, etc. But I think it's a virtual certainty for Chad Gaudin. He's 4th in the AL in ERA and 26th in WHIP. Normally, the ERA heads towards the WHIP as the season progresses, not the other way around. His K/BB numbers are 68/48 (1.42 K/BB), good for 38th in the AL - and sandwiched between Tim Wakefield and Odalis Perez. And yet, both his WHIP and K/BB ratio this season are much better than his career numbers. Yikes.
Reds +153 (A Rag Yo/El Puque)
Mostly a fade of El Duque, who has twice in his career started against the Reds, twice at Shea, and twice lost. In those games, he went 12.2 innings, gave up 17 hits, 6 BB, 4 HR, and 10 ER. The Mets also made the unfathomable decision of firing their hitting coach today, with the intention of naming either Howard Johnson or Rickey Henderson as the new hitting coach. Whether this affects this game or not I don't know, but any effect will be negative.
Arroyo has been solid in his career against the Mets and is starting to pitch effectively again. His numbers aren't overwhelming, but he is giving Cincinatti a chance to win games, and at +153, I think the price is right even with the Reds' pen.
Twins -115 (Baker/Gaud Awful)
Anyway, along with the general Gaudin fade material that I have isolated as an almost in the dark fade, the Twins have teed off on him in his limited appearances (18 baserunners in 6.1 IP!), and he is terrible indoors. His career indoor ERA is 1.92 higher than his outdoor ERA, his WHIP is .28 higher, and the opposition is hitting .88 points higher indoors. His lone indoor start this season just so happens to have been his worst - 4.1 IP, 9 hits, 4 BB, and 5 ER against Houston. The Twins also hit RHP very well, scoring a run more per game against RH starters than LH starters.
Frankly, I'll probably be betting against Gaudin no matter who the opponent throughout most of the second half, but it always helps that the A's are facing a righty (they only are averaging 3.9 rpg against RH starters, as opposed to 5.2 against lefties), and one who has been pitching very well. Baker actually got the win in his last outing, the crazy 20-14 game at US Cellular, but gave up 7 runs in 5 innings. Before that, he had given up only 14 hits, 2 walks, 15 K, and 4 ER in 20 innings in three strong starts. I think he'll return to that form in this one against a mediocre offense. With the Twins having an astronomical bullpen advantage, the short price is absolutely no bother.
If I had to bet a total in any game tomorrow, it would be under. Not only are there some nice pitching matchups, the pitchers are much more accustomed to extra rest than the hitters, and I truly believe that will be to their advantage at least in the early innings. Just a little caveat.
I agree with the Twins play, I played it myself. I think I like the over a little more in that one, because Scott Baker has meltdown tendencies and Oakland is likely to hit well at the Metrodome. But I like the Twins in general as well. GL everyone.
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Gaudin Fade and a dog
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