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All-Star Break Ganchalysis: American League review
All-Star Break Ganchalysis - AL
Baltimore – Baltimore was a pretty consistent sub-par team in the first half, with a negative return of about -9%, equally split between home and road games. They often had value when either “under the radar” starter Jeremy Guthrie or Erik Bedard was starting, and often had fade value when either troubled Daniel Cabrera or Steve Trachsel was starting.
Their lineup is pretty weak, and doesn’t figure to improve much in the second half, so things should probably remain the same for Baltimore. Namely, they’ll score enough to win when they get a quality start and their bullpen holds the lead, but they won’t be able to overcome much pitching adversity. This should result in more modestly negative returns.
What value they will have, either as a bet or a fade, depends entirely on how the market values them, which is not clear at all at this point. But Guthrie won’t likely be undervalued as he was in the first half.
Boston – Boston had the best record in the majors in the first half, but only the 6th best overall ML return, at 6%. This stands to reason of course, as Boston is always a highly rated team, sometimes legitimately, sometimes not.
This year, though, they really do field an impressive team. Their lineup is constantly poised to take advantage of other teams’ pitching weaknesses, which allows them to have bullpen-resting blowouts, comebacks, and late-inning wins in close games.
Their rotation is the least stellar component of their playoff-bound team, although many would love to have their starting pitching prospects. Josh Beckett faltered in the second half last year, and power pitchers like him are vulnerable to those sorts of fades (see also: Brad Penny). And Dice K is an unknown; he has high pitch counts, but does seem a bit immune to their usual deleterious effects, so how he will be affected by fatigue in the second half is not clear at all. Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield are in their 40s, but also seem to be steady and durable.
So all in all, the second half should not bring too many surprises for the Red Sox; they’ll usually be big favorites, especially at home, but will also win most of those games, likely resulting in another modest but solidly positive return. And they will probably be very appropriately rated in their totals, with high lines that they will go over roughly half the time.
White Sox – What a difference a year makes. In 2005, the White Sox were the ultimate winning team. Sparked by manager Ozzie Guillen, they had a strong core of players that seemed to be even better than the sum of their parts, finding ways to win, usually pulling out the close ones. And in 2006, the White Sox had one of the most feared lineups in the majors, capable of blasting away night after night.
This year, however, things are completely different. They look old and feeble offensively, and have a nasty habit of giving away games in the late innings through fielding and bullpen implosions.
Overall they had a negative return of about -10%, and it was particularly bad at home, at about -18%, second-worst in the majors, where they would often be given the benefit of the doubt by the market, and be rated a good-sized favorite.
It’s not clear what will happen with them offensively in the second half. Jim Thome figures to continue to have health problems, Jermaine Dye figures to continue in his offensive funk, and Paul Konerko figures to continue to suffer from lack of protection in the lineup. But, there is always the potential for an upswing with them offensively, and if that does happen, they may well develop solid value, particularly on the road in hitter-friendly parks, where their offensive resurgence would be enhanced, and where they would also probably get a break in their MLs.
But without question, things could easily stay the same, or get even worse. So following them closely and looking for signs of either direction of momentum could well expose decent line value of various types at various times.
Cleveland – Cleveland was a very strong team all around in the first half, and they did it even with somewhat of a sub-standard performance from Travis Hafner, their usual offensive anchor. They have a deep and balanced lineup, with a mix of promising and productive youngsters, and solid and steady veterans.
Their pitching was decent in the first half, and is more likely to improve than to get worse. C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, and Paul Byrd all had quality first halves, but not unnaturally so, and unless they run into health problems, there is no reason to think they won’t be just as good in the second half as a group. Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook, on the other hand, figure to be better in the second half than they were in their throwaway first halves, and if that turns out to be the case, Cleveland may well wind up as the runaway best team in baseball.
If things stay reasonably on track for Cleveland, they will probably repeatedly have value even as a huge favorite late in the season, and have a return even better than their modestly positive first half return of about 6%.
Detroit – Detroit had a very curious first half, for many reasons. First of all, their home park, which has trended reasonably under the past few years, suddenly became a strong over park, at 28-13 (68.3%) O/U. That can be in part attributed to Detroit’s strong lineup and weak bullpen, but they were only 50/50 in totals on the road.
And furthermore, despite offense being their strength, and their home games trending strongly to the over, they did not in fact do particularly well at home; they were 27-15 on the road for an impressively positive return of about 26%, but were only 25-19 at home, actually resulting in a negative return of about -2%.
If Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman fade a bit in the second half, as they did last year, Detroit could find themselves knocked down a notch or two in the standings, and representing a negative double digit return. As we’ve seen time and time again, offense alone is not the way to win consistently in the majors, and Detroit needs good starting pitching to remain an elite team, because their bullpen is not yet a strength.
It’s not at all clear how the market will value them, so things are likely to change relatively strongly from week to week with Detroit from a betting perspective in the second half.
Kansas City – Kansas City, as usual, is near the bottom of the AL, tied for second-to-last in the standings at the break. But also as usual, they were a team that often provided opportunity to sharp handicappers, and they will likely do so as well in the second half.
This incarnation of Kansas City is actually significantly better than those of recent years, and while they stumbled a bit at the beginning of the year, when they were working out the roles everyone would play, things really started to come together for them in June and July, when they actually had a winning record of 19-15, and represented an impressively positive return of about 22%, equally distributed between the road and home. This was also not an accident or a statistical anomaly, in my opinion.
Their great weakness of years past, their awful bullpen (2007 version: Tampa Bay) is now quite a strength, and likely to stay that way in the second half. This will serve them well, and will enable them to win games in which they are competitive.
Their starting pitching is ok, but not great, and from a betting perspective, this is probably a good thing, because it will keep Kansas City from going on winning streaks, and as a result may keep them undervalued in their lines.
Their lineup has always been decent, if unspectacular, and in sum total, things are looking more up for Kansas City than they have in a long time. I would not be at all surprised if they played better than .500 ball in the second half, or even if they wound up at .500 for the year.
How the market will react is not clear; when they were really bad in years past, they were undervalued, but the market does seem to now be aware of Kansas City’s potential to win games consistently as a big underdog. Still, if they really start to play well, it’s hard to imagine the market reacting as quickly as it should with them. There is likely to be a mental barrier against having them anything more than a small favorite in any situation, and they should have decent value for a while if this all comes to pass.
Angels – The Angels of course were one of the elite teams in the majors in the first half, and they had value as well, with a solid positive return of about 8% overall. They played very well at home, and were often huge favorites, and usually deservedly so.
Seeing their impressive home record should not make anyone think they are the greatest bet in the world at home though, as they returned “only” about 10%, which is very good of course, but still a reasonable number. As opposed to their road record, where they played only slightly better than .500, but still returned almost 5%. But by the same token, no one should be put off by their big favorite odds at home, as despite that, they still did after all return 10% at home.
Their great play at home is no accident; their lineup is ideally suited to their home stadium, and their starting pitchers are well-suited to pitch there as well. The Angels are loaded with quality table-setters in Orlando Cabrera, Reggie Willits and Chone Figgins, all .300+ hitters who are also in double digits in steals, but they’re comparatively light on power hitters, the benefits of which are reduced at their pitcher-friendly park.
Much of their rotation receives a disproportionate benefit from pitching at home as well, led of course by Ervin Santana, who is sure to have one of the starkest home/road dichotomies in the history of baseball.
The Angels are not quite a perfect team, and may in fact be a tiny tick less complete than their neighbors in the standings, but they are still nevertheless the real deal, and unless they go into a funk in the late summer weeks – always a possibility – they should again be a .600 team in the second half, with a solidly positive return at home, despite repeatedly being big favorites.
Minnesota – Minnesota had a bit of an unusual first half for them. They are normally a very good home team, and are often underrated at home despite that. This stands to reason, since their makeup is that of a team that would do well at home; a capable but not fearsome lineup, with pitching as their strength, and a particularly strong bullpen, with setup guys and a closer good for turning close games into wins at home.
Their team makeup this year was no different, yet their home results were not as they have often been in years past. Johan Santana’s usual home dominance in particular disappeared, although that was probably at least partially incidental, as the team’s sub-par performance at home in general probably was as well.
The bullpen and lineup are both fine this year. The big factor for Minnesota’s overall fortunes in the second half will be their starting pitching. Santana should be stellar again, and Carlos Silva should be inconsistent and mediocre again. But after that, it is very up in the air. How things will shake out with Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker is not clear at all.
Unfortunately for bettors, the market has always seemed to be on top of Minnesota’s changing day-to-day fortunes, making them a deservedly big favorite when they have a quality starter such as Santana going, and a deservedly big underdog when their starter is likely to be vulnerable. Still, their offense is a bit more complete than it has been in years past, and their young starters have displayed the ability to be effective at the major league level. So I would expect them to return to their winning ways at home, yielding a nicely positive return for the second half, and to be a good bet on the over when going against non-elite starting pitchers, both at home and on the road.
Yankees – Yankee line histories and results are a staple of introductory sports betting courses all across the country, and for good reason; no individual team exemplifies market-wide delusions better than the Yankees. Sometimes they do field a quality team, and for those periods the market’s irrationality concerning them gets a bit camouflaged.
But this year, in the first half, that was very much not the case. The Yankees had a strong negative return of about -17%, and that was with a record close to .500. By comparison, the only teams close to the Yankees in terms of negative overall return were Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, both of whom were .400 teams.
The Yankees were also by far the worst team on the road in the majors as far as ROI is concerned, with a whopping negative return of almost -33%. Houston was a distant second at about -26%, but even those numbers don’t tell the whole story, as unit-wise, the Yankees’ -33% resulted in a loss of about 18 units, while Houston’s -26% resulted in a unit loss of only about 9.5, which goes to show just how overrated the Yankees were on the road.
They do have a good team of course, and may in fact even have decent value as a huge favorite when Chien-Ming Wang starts, if he gets on one of his unhittable rolls in the second half, which is entirely possible. Andy Pettitte figures to improve, possibly a great deal, and Roger Clemens looks like once again, he will be a top-tier starter for half a season.
So the Yankees are actually likely in my opinion to improve in the second half, and to be less overrated overall, as their lines will not likely go up much even if they start winning, because their first-half lines assumed those kinds of results in the first place. But if that happens, it will only serve to reinforce market irrationality with regard to the Yankees for the next season or two. They are not a team to be automatically faded or ignored, but it is always important when considering their games to remember that their lines are set and bet a bit differently, and less rationally, than other teams’.
Oakland – Oakland’s team makeup, heavy on quality pitching and light on speed, combined with their pitcher-friendly home park, is a recipe for unders at home, and the first half delivered that, as home games at Oakland were 13-28 (31.7%) O/U. Of course, the betting market is aware of this, and their lines are always close to being as low as they should be, and as a result, Oakland usually only has a small home under trend, despite the low scoring at McAfee.
But this year, with their young starters maturing into bona fide top-tier major league pitchers, and their lineup suffering particularly badly at home, the bottom dropped out of the offensive numbers at McAfee, and the market couldn’t react strong enough to compensate.
Oakland’s problem is that their lineup is not well-suited to be productive at McAfee, which is why their starting pitchers often pitch so well at home but wind up not getting wins out of their efforts. Oakland’s lineup should look like the Angels’ lineup, but instead it looks sort of like Cincinnati’s, or Colorado’s.
Oakland would have a better record if they played in a hitter-friendly park, and this incongruence led not only to a strong under trend at home in the first half, but also to a poor ROI at home for Oakland, at almost -15%. This is not likely to change because the reasons that caused it are fundamental. At the end of the first half, Oakland’s stellar starters actually began having mediocre starts at home, resulting in a bad losing stretch in July. If the starters don’t hold up, Oakland’s return at home could get even worse.
On the other hand, Oakland did have a positive return of about 7% on the road, and that is likely to continue, or even possibly get better, if Oakland’s solid lineup remains intact.
Oakland is beginning to resemble San Diego, a team that has good pitching, and plays in a very pitcher-friendly park, and as a result, winds up with a strong under trend until the market adjusts, and tends to have negative returns at home and positive returns on the road.
Seattle – Seattle had by far the best ROI in the majors in the first half, at almost 19%, and it was remarkably evenly distributed between home and road games, and over the weeks of the season. Seattle had a positive return every month, and in fact had an upward slope to their curve, with a higher return each month than the previous one. Of course, this doesn’t mean they’re better than everyone else, just more underrated than everyone else, and that could easily change in the second half.
What keeps Seattle’s lines modest is their no-name rotation, which aside from Felix Hernandez, is comprised of guys who have traditionally inspired little confidence – Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, et al. This may keep Seattle’s value high in the second half, especially if they start things off by losing or playing .500 ball.
But their bullpen is effective and deep, and their lineup is somewhat capable and balanced, so it would be a surprise if they did not wind up with a positive ROI in the second half. Their starting pitching is questionable, to be sure, but look for them to maintain second half value, if perhaps not to the same degree as they had it in the first half.
Tampa Bay – My personal favorite team for the year, it doesn’t get much better in MLB than Tampa Bay when it comes to entertainment, it doesn’t get much worse when it comes to wins and losses, and it’s pretty good in general when it comes to betting lines. With Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young, Edwin Jackson, and Casey Fossum & Co. running around, Tampa Bay is the closest baseball has gotten to professional wrestling in a while.
Tampa Bay’s central problem is that they have a very weak bullpen, which had to be downgraded to almost non-existent when closer Al Reyes went on the DL. Their current closer and bullpen ERA leader at 5.32 is Gary Glover. Their July 7 game at Kansas City was the apotheosis of their Bad News Bears-style problems, when Jay Witasick and Casey Fossum, attempting to protect a 2-run 8th inning lead, faced a combined 5 batters and gave up a combined 5 walks.
As would be expected, Tampa Bay’s returns were in the negative double digits all around, home and road, and every month, despite being an underdog most of the time. They do have a lineup with some pop, which led them to a 47-34 (58.0%) O/U result in the first half. This over tendency was much more pronounced on the road, at 30-12 (71.4%), where their games tend to get out of control and the runs pile up as a result.
Their lineup and bullpen should maintain a lean towards the over in the second half, although it’s not clear how their lines will adjust, nor how consistent their young and undisciplined lineup will be. But following Tampa Bay closely is likely to reveal some solid value going against them, and perhaps even value going on them at times, depending on how high their underdog lines climb, which they are sure to, as this team does not have the makings of a winner in any way, shape or form.
Texas – Texas is not a good team overall, hopelessly out of the race in the AL West. But they do have a decent bullpen, and like many bad teams with decent bullpens, they had a positive return at home in the first half, at about 5%.
Their bullpen is the key to their underrated state at home, and it’s not clear whether it will be able to continue its effectiveness in the second half. Eric Gagne is coming off of 2 years of injury, but Akinori Otsuka should be fine. After those two though, C.J. Wilson, Ron Mahay and Joaquin Benoit are not a lock to have as good a second half as a group as they had in the first half.
Still, if Texas’ shaky but potential-laden starting rotation improves, as it could, Texas is likely to remain a profitable team at home, and possibly significantly so, and on the road as well. That would also serve to maintain their modest home under trend of the past year and a half, which has been caused by their totals climbing a bit too high in general in response to their previous years as an offensive powerhouse playing in a very hitter-friendly park.
Toronto – Toronto has had a bit of an unexpected first half, as Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett did much worse than hoped, but Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan were pleasant surprises. But their bullpen is deep and effective, and their lineup is decent but not fearsome, which is the old familiar formula so often resulting in a modest positive return at home and a trend to the under at home, as it did for Toronto in the first half.
What is up with Halladay is not at all clear; it could be mental, physical, both or neither, but he had a sub-par year in 2004 sandwiched by his usual dominance, and this feels similar to ‘04. More bad starts and/or a trip to the DL would not be a surprise in the second half, so tread carefully when he starts, as he is sure to be a sizable favorite almost every time out.
In general though, Toronto’s pitching is reasonably deep, and they should be able to weather injuries and slumps, and they’re not likely to wind up too overrated, if at all.
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Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG
