1. #1
    Mr0ctober
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    Mr0ctober's Season Preview - Team Win Totals

    Hey Guys, I am new to the forum. I consider myself a hardcore baseball capper. I cap all sports but baseball is my main focus as i follow it in much more detail than any other sport. I will be posting win totals team by team as we grow closer to the season. Capping win totals is more than looking at the teams roster and saying over or under. Have to keep in mind what teams will be sellers or buyers come the trade deadline. Also important to cap the teams within the teams division you are capping. For example, the Marlins look like a 100 loss team therefore you have to factor that in when capping the Mets, Phils, Nats, and Braves

    Team 1: NL East - Washington Nationals.

    Buyers or Sellers: The Nationals will be "all in" this year in terms of going after a world series (much like last year) and likely buyers at the deadline. As of now, this is the final contract year for Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio, Madson, and Weiters among others.

    Last years # of wins: 97. Thats right 97 wins with a +147 run differential.

    Division teams & Interleague: Mets & Phillies should make some improvements in the win column this year compared to last while the braves also should be a little better than last year. The Marlins will be taking a massive step back as this could be one of the worst MLB teams we have seen in a long time. Although, most of the division outside of the Marlins should be making a small stride forward, I expect the Nationals to making a step forward as well. The Nationals did draw the AL East in terms of interleague which means you will get the Yankees and Redsox which isn't the best but they should have no problem holding their own in those series.

    Analysis: Last year the Nationals missed Adam Eaton for basically the whole year. They also missed Trea Turner for better than 1/3rd of the season. I consider Trea Turner to be probably the most underrated player in the league as he is an incredible so called "table setter." Assuming you have those two guys as catalysts at the top i can only see this team being much better than last year. The Nationals had a glaring hole for much of the season last year in terms of their bullpen. In 2017, the Nationals bullpen carried a 4.41 ERA which was good enough for 23rd best of 30 teams. They also allowed a bottom tier .251 average and blew 17 saves in 2017. The bullpen for a 97 team win team last year wasn't good to say the least. Those numbers should be much improved in 2018 because that issue was addressed when they aquired Madson, Doolittle, and Kintzler. I cant imagine this team winning less than 95 games & i actually expect them to win upward 90s and maybe even 100+ games. Scherzer, Stras, and Gio are an outstanding trio of arms and with a healthy eaton & turner in front of Bryce, Murphy, Zim, Rendon, and a bolstered bullpen the Nationals should win this division pretty easy and surpass the 93 game win total. I actually believe the Nats will sign Jake Arietta who is a scott boras client as are many of the Nationals players. I was able to get a max bet for me as soon as the odds came out on BOL when they had the Nats -150 to win the NL East. That number is long gone. But i wouldn't worry about that as you can still get the Nationals Over 93 or 93.5 wins this year at several shops. Nothing is a sure thing because you always have injury factors but its pretty much impossible to cap injuries.

    Play: Nationals Over 93 or 93.5 Wins. This is my favorite Win total play of the Year!
    Last edited by Mr0ctober; 03-04-18 at 10:29 PM.

  2. #2
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 2: NL East - Atlanta Braves

    Buyers or Sellers: Neither really. This is a team has a ton of youth. Only a couple guys this team could move McCarthy, Markakis or a Kurt Suzuki. I guess they would be considered sellers with not much to sell outside of Markakis.

    Last Years # of Wins: 72 Wins with a run differential of -89.

    Interesting note: The Braves were tied for 2nd for worst home record with the mets at 37-44. Only the Tigers were worse in all of baseball.

    Analysis: The line is set at 75 wins at most shops. The line seems pretty spot on. I think the Braves will improve their home record from last year as 37-44 would be hard to replicate (i mean that in a good way Atlanta fans). The Braves for whatever reason always seem to play the Nationals tough. This team is loaded with young talent. Tehran and Folty at the top of the rotation didn't perform well last year. Foltys big issue has been throwing strikes and maintaining composure on the mound. He has electric stuff but just has trouble keeping it together when adversity strikes. Tehran had a major WHIP and ERA increase mainly because of control issues. Tehran walked 41 guys in 188 innings in 2016 and last year walked 72 batters in 188 innings. I think those guys take a step forward as Tehran is just 27 years old and has the talent to produce it is just a matter if he can return to his 2016 form. Outside of those two they have a couple of talented left handed prospects in Newcomb and Gohara. Then They added Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy a couple veterans that should help the rotation. Long story short this talented staff should take a step forward. In the field, Freddie Freeman one of the best players in baseball and Inciarte was a bright spot in the outfield last year but what more do they have in terms of offensive production? The braves also have top prospect in baseball in Ronald Acuna (yes he will be a phenom) that we should see sometime this year. This team will be an interesting one to watch. The two guys at the back of the bullpen are solid in Jose Ramirez and Vizcaino but the bullpen as a whole last year was atrocious. This win total will be decided by how much output the offense can bring to the table. Tehran has to be better than he was last year also. I think he returns to much better for in 2017 and i think the Braves do just enough to get over that 75 win mark set by the books. I'll take a shot in the dark and say the Braves win 76 or 77 games.

    Play: No Play yet but i do lean the Over as i am much higher on this team than most.

  3. #3
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 3 - NL East - Miami Marlins

    Buyers or Sellers. They will sell what they havent already sold yet. Left for them to sell is JT Realmuto. He will most likely be gone before the deadline as he has already expressed interest in getting the Hell out of Miami. Martin Prado probably will get moved as well.

    Last Years # of Wins: 77 with a run differential of -44 runs.

    Analysis: This years line is set at 64.5. Basically the question is can the marlins lose less than 100 games this year. We can't really compare this years team to last as this MLB team will look more like a Triple A team this year. This is a bad team that will get worse as soon as they move the rest of the MLB players they have left. I can't remember a total this low in a long time that is why i am completely avoiding it. If i were to play it i would actually play it under just because the lack of talent they will trot out there and the fact that i expect the Phillies, Braves, and Mets to all take a step forward.

    Play: None, Gun to head i would go the Under though.

  4. #4
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 4 - NL East - Philadelphia Phillies

    Phillies only won 66 games last year and had a -92 run differential yet this year the line is set at 77.5.


    This team like the Atlanta Braves and even more so imo will be very interesting and fun to watch. The Phils are loaded with young talent both on the offensive end and On the mound. The Phils added Carlos Santana which will provide some major pop alongside Hoskins and Franco. This team is really set up to succeed going forward and its not a matter of if it is just when. The offense is set up well as you look anywhere on the field its a bright spot. The pitching staff is also very bright. You have Nola at the top who was really good last year and is only 24 years old. Hes only going to keep getting better imo. Velasquez has the stuff he just needs to learn "how to pitch" as he was hit or miss in his 72 innings last year. Pivetta is much of the same has really solid stuff but just made way to many mistakes last year.. Pivetta made some guys swing and miss as he had 140 ks in 133 innings but he also allowed 25 homers and 144 hits in that same 133 innings again Pivetta will just turn 26 this april though. So we will find out much more about this kid this year. We probably wont see the kid im most excited about for the phillies future. Sixto Sanchez has been compared by several people to Pedro Martinez. Sanchez is only 19 and is one of the top prospects in baseball. I doubt we see him in the bigs this year but maybe next year. If he pans out like he should him and Nola will be two horses at the top for a long time.

    This Phillies team should get several free wins from the Marlins but i can't see any value over or under 77.5 wins. I just don't think the starting pitching will be consistent enough in 2018 to get to 80 or near wins. I think they end up somewhere between 76-79 wins. This is a team to get more excited about in 2019 imo. If they do however get the starting pitching rolling this team will get past the 77 win mark but that is just too big of a question mark for me.

    Play: None, and no lean. Seems like a coin flip to me in all honesty.

  5. #5
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 5 - NL East - New York Mets

    Last Years Wins 70 with a -128 run differential (4th worst Run Differential in baseball). Also had a 37-44 home record tied for 2nd worst in baseball.

    This years line: Over/Under 82.5 Wins.

    Analysis:
    Lets be honest the Mets probably wont be as bad as they were last year. At least they shouldn't be anyways. Lets start with the strong point of the Mets. Its Syndergaard (who has looked looked a sure cy young candidate based on offseason and little bit of spring ball we have seen) and Degrom. They can pile up the strikeouts and wins for sure. But after those two who is left? Matt Harvey has been awful for the last two years & Steven Matz was even worse last year in his 13 starts. The Mets Bullpen was absolutely putrid last year also but they have made a small improvement picking up Swarzak but i still expect the pen to be at the bottom tier of the MLB. They were the 3 worst in all of baseball last year with only the Reds and Tigers being worse. They may be better but Im not sure how much better. Zack Wheeler is the one guy that i can see helping the starting rotation and the Mets success. But even if Wheeler would be a bright spot i still don't have much hope for this Mets team. I think this Mets team is deceptively bad. I think most people are blinded by the Degrom and Syndergaard duo and that covers up the plethora of flaws this team has.

    Offensively for the Mets: Cespedes is a tremendous talent but the guy can never stay healthy. The Mets signed Frazier & Adrian Gonzalez at the corners. I hate both signings. Frazier is a 32 year old that will hit 25 homers but struggle to stay above the Mendoza line (.200 average). And Adrian Gonzalez was once one of the better hitters i have seen but hes 35 years old and declining in a hurry. Not to mention it takes a homer to score him from 2nd base. The Mets got older rather than better this offseason.

    The Play: Mets Under 82.5 Wins. Not my favorite play of the year but think there is enough value to get down on this for a half unit or maybe a full unit.

  6. #6
    Barrakuda
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    Good stuff. Personally, I like taking the under on high win totals. The thinking is that the possibility of major injury in not properly priced in. (same deal with season player props, fwiw). Eyeing: Astros under 97.5 and LAD under 96. A couple major injuries for either team, and they're going way under.

  7. #7
    slayer14
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    The team that wins the world series usually has a down year next

  8. #8
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 6 - NL Central - Milwaukee Brewers

    Buyers or Sellers: Well its pretty obvious based on this offseason Brewers are going after it this year. as long as they are in somewhat contention come the all star break. They acquired Yelich who is just 26 and will be an MVP candidate here in the next few years. That is how high i am on Christian Yelich. He is the complete package hits for average & power (his new home will help those numbers also) the kid has plenty of speed and doesn't strike out too much. He always seems to carry a solid on base percentage around .370. Not to mention he is a tremendous defender. Like i said Yelich is the complete package he is exactly what i want in a baseball player. Lorenzo Cain was another addition and is much the same type of player that Yelich is. I wouldn't expect too many gappers or flares to fall in, in milwaukee this year. With those two monster additions this offense and the outfield defense will be just fine this year.

    They draw the AL Central which should help with the likes of Tigers and Royals.

    Last Years # of wins 86 with a +35 run differential

    This years line 84.5 Wins.

    Analysis;
    Its a peculiar line set at 84.5. And most will probably jump right up and say OVER. I mean that is what i did when i first saw the line. But as i started to dig into it i started to like the Over less and less.

    Positives for this team:
    - Additions of Yelich & Cain
    - Offense didn't lose anyone really from last year and should be really solid this year.
    - Bullpen is sneaky good although there has been talk of Hader to starting rotation (a big part of why they won 86 games last year and damn near made the playoffs)

    Negative:
    - The Brewers struck out 9.7 times per game last year which led the majors for most strike outs per game.
    - Jimmy Nelson who was outstanding for them is coming off shoulder surgery (cause for concern)
    - The Brewers almost lead the league in errors per game last year also.
    - without a ton of elaboration the xFIP's show that a lot of those starting pitchers were outperforming their actual numbers. so regression to the mean is quite possible with several of the brewers pitchers based on some numbers.

    Play: None. As easy as it would be to say over i just don't trust this pitching staff as i expect a regression to the mean. I will wait on this one for a couple reasons. I want to see if the Brewers bring in any starting pitchers and monitor the status of Jimmy Nelson going forward. Something about the Brewers as a whole im just not sold on.

  9. #9
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 7 - NL Central - Cincinnati Reds

    Team will be in rebuild mode yet again this year.

    # of Wins Last year 68 with run differential of -116. Which is pretty bad considering the scored the 14th most runs in the league. Shows you just how bad this pitching staff was outside of Iglasius. And what good is a closer if you can't ever get to the 9th with a lead.

    The Line this year is 74 wins.

    Analysis: Start with their pitching. Describing the Reds staff as horrible last year would be an understatement. It was downright awful in every aspect outside of Castillo who looks like a future phenom and Rasial Iglasius at the back end. Desclafani & Finnegan have been injured and Finnegan's inability to throw strikes makes him useless at this point. Homer Bailey looks like the worst pitcher ever to have a massive contract. Bailey will make 21 million dollars this year. Thats 23.43% of the Reds entire salary. funny thing is he will make 23 mil in 2019 and 25 mil in 2020. As of now this looks like maybe the worst contract of all time. Another horrible contract is Devin Mesaraco who will make 13 million this year. He has been another awful signing for this team. At least for Reds fans his contract is up after this year. This front office has done a horrible job. They continually let guys walk instead of trading them for someone to get something in return (i.e. Cozart last year). They do have a top prospect who is a pure baseball player in Nick Senzel. They also have Jesse Winker who did well the little time he saw the field last year. Question is will the Reds have these guys in the majors and play them consistently? Answer: Doubtful based on what we have seen the last couple years.

    Reds have some solid talent in terms of offensive production but the pitching is just horrendous. Castillo is one of the best arms in the game and one of my favorite young guys to watch in the bigs. Iglasius has some of the best stuff in the game but those two can only do so much.

    Play: Under 74 wins with a solid amount of confidence. Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers provide a tough division i just cant find a way this team wins more than 72 games.

  10. #10
    Mr0ctober
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barrakuda View Post
    Good stuff. Personally, I like taking the under on high win totals. The thinking is that the possibility of major injury in not properly priced in. (same deal with season player props, fwiw). Eyeing: Astros under 97.5 and LAD under 96. A couple major injuries for either team, and they're going way under.
    Thanks Barrakuda

    Usually we see World Series teams come back down to earth a little the following season. But i don't think we see that this year with the Astros. I think this Astros team is one of the better teams we have seen in a long time. They are loaded with young talent at every position and those guys love playing baseball. I see this offense being every bit as good as last year. Also, one thing to note is how much better Verlander got when he joined the Astros. He actually credited a lot of his success to the scouting and information that the AStros had compiled on the opponents individual hitters and teams. For that reason i can imagine Gerrit Cole to follow the same path. So in terms of the Astros wouldn't bet against them winning 98-100 games or better this year.

    On the other hand I like the Dodgers under at first glance. I don't expect them to win like 50 out of 52 games again this year or whatever it was. I don't think that Dodger pitching staff will hold up as well as it did last year in all honesty. NL West will be improved and i haven't dug into a ton of info on these teams yet but i really like that Dodgers under at first glance.

  11. #11
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 8 - NL Central - St Louis Cardinals

    Should be in a playoff position come the All Star break and at that point will probably look to add a piece or two. So team should get better around mid season at some point.

    # of Team Wins last year 83 with a +56 run differential

    Line this year: Over/Under 86.5 Wins

    Cardinals are a team that seem to be consistent every year this day and age. Doesn't seem to matter who they lose or add the new guys always preform. They added Ozuna who will play left field this year. He is 27 years old and coming off a monster year. Somehow his signing seems to be flying under the radar. Ozuna his .312 last year with 37 homers & 124 RBIs with a .924 OPS. That's pretty dang close to an MVP stat line. So Ozuna should be a pretty strong anchor in the middle of that lineup as long as he is healthy.

    This team kind of fits the model of "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts." Not a bunch of flash at any position but no real holes at the same time either. The Starting staff will look similar in Carlos Martinez (who has electric stuff), Michael Wacha (coming off a pretty decent year), and a seemingly declining Adam Wainwright. The X factors with this team comes with the two young up and coming studs Luke Weaver and Alex Reyes. Reyes suffered a major injury last year and doesn't look to be back until May at this point. Reyes is an outstanding young pitcher with tremendous upside. He's a future stud as long as he can recover from his injury. Weaver put together really impressive abbreviated season last year. In 10 starts he threw 60 innings struck out 72 guys while only walking 17. That is very impressive from a young guy. Question is how will he preform this year now that the teams will have some solid tape on him. I think hes well suited to continue success for years coming. So the Starting Rotation should be okay this year as long as Reyes recovers from the injury and Weaver can hold up his end of the bargain. Lance Lynn however will likely be missing from the rotation this year as he is still a FA and has yet to sign with anyone. Lance Lynn was a big part of the rotation for the past few years. Lynn threw a near 200 innings (186 to be exact) and actually had the highest WAR among any of the Cardinals starters including Carlos Martinez. Lynn's war was was 3.1 compared to MArtinez 2.9. So this is a very significant loss that will probably be overlooked by many people staring at the win total as Lynn always seems to fly under the radar. In all honesty he would be near the top of the list on a "most underrated MLB pitchers list." Filling his role will be a tall order. But again they have the young arms that could it.

    The bullpen worries me though. The closer looks to be Luke Gregerson who has gotten a little worse every year for the last 4 or 5 years now. He actually didn't have good numbers last year despite winning a title with Houston. He will soon be 34 and a declining 34 year old closer isn't really a ton to get excited about. Dominic Leon who they aquired (if he performs like last year) will be a great addition and Trevor Lyons was pretty good too. Outside of those two i think this team has a bunch of average to above average arms in the pen. I think the Cardinals will find a way and the bullpen might be one of those areas they will be shopping for come the deadline.

    As a whole this team isn't that flashy on paper but then again doesn't have a bunch of holes either as i said before. I expect this team to be in the hunt as usual and fighting hard with the Brewers and Cubs down the stretch. I think the line of 86.5 is about spot on. I have them projected at about 86-87 wins.

    With the exit of Lance Lynn & Because of the questions with Reyes. A seemingly declining path for Wainwright and Gregerson I can't back this team one way or the other. This team has won 84 and 86 games the past couple years. My guess is this Over/Under 86.5 comes down to the wire. NO PLAY

  12. #12
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 9 - NL Central - Pittsburgh Pirates

    Rebuilding Pirates team that has a good bit of young talent.

    Last Year # of Wins 75 with a -63 run differential. Side note Pirates played really well at PNC 44-37 and absolutely horrible away from home 31-50.


    The Pirates will have to compensate for the losses of Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen who were both anchors of the Pirates for the last several years. Despite those two being gone i actually have a lot more hope for the Pirates than most. The division will be tough as i have mentioned with the last several write ups but i don't think the Pirates will have a Marlins type year by any means. The Pirates still have a pretty solid young base in Polanco, Marte (as long as he doesnt get PED suspension again), Dickerson (aquired from Tampa), Adam Frazier, Josh Harrison, and Josh Bell. The lineup of the before mentioned guys should provide enough offense to keep this team out of the bottom tier of runs per game.

    The starting staff should be actually decent in my opinion. They do not have a any glorified aces but they do have serveral who can compete enough to keep this team in several games. Ivan Nova is a solid veteran at the top along with a highly touted Jameson Tallion. Behind those guys you have Trevor Williams (1.9 WAR last year), Chad Kuhl (1.6 WAR), and newly added Joe Musgrove. Musgrove has tremendous stuff at times and is ultra competitive and fiery on the mound. He has the stuff if he can put it all together.

    The bullpen will be anchored by the flame throwing Felipe Rivero. He was dominant in 73 games last year striking out 88 guys in 75 innings and carrying a 0.89 WHIP. Its the middle guys that have me liking the outlook of this team better than most. Kontos, Feliz, Shugel, and Crick. These guys aren't proven by any means but should put together a decent year from the pen.

    Play: Call me crazy but Pirates Over 73 (or 73.5 at +115 5d)

  13. #13
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 10 - NL Central - Chicago Cubs

    No need to discuss buyers or sellers

    Last years wins 92 with a run differential of +127

    This Years Line 93.5 at most shops.

    Its not a question of whether or not this team is going to be good. The question is how good will they be. They bring back all of the young core. Major loss in Jake Arietta but they signed Yu Darvish so that will certainly ease the pain of losing Jake. The rotation looks strong strong again. Hendricks can clearly pitch, hes not a power guy so i think last year is a better evaluation what he will be rather than 2 years ago. Lester's #s were down a little but still stuck out 180 in 180 innings. Quintana is the guy that i think has a big year. The over on his win total is probably worth a strong look. He has been a guy that has always been healthy and pitched 188 innings or better 5 straight years. He had 7 wins last year for this cubs team in just 14 starts. I think Quintana wins 15 games this year and maybe more. Yu Darvish has been pretty solid for the last few years but i don't like the signing. I mean he doesn't have to be the ace so he will be fine i just think hes a guy that is starting to decline. Cubs also now have Tyler Chatwood. I guess this could be a great signing because for whatever reason his day/night splits are insanely better during the day. I mention that bc the cubs play a ton of day games. He was also way better on the road so we will see how his new home in Wrigley treats him. Drew Smyly is another new comer the cubs have. He should provide a little more depth to the rotation assuming he recovers properly from tommy john.

    The bullpen this year should be solid with the additions of Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek. Those two will help ease the role of Pedro Strop and Carl Edwards. They do lose Wade Davis and of the 4 before mentioned guys im not sure who will close as of now. Im guessing Brandon Morrow but that will be a new role for him.

    The offense doesn't need to be talked about much. Everyone knows the offense is really good and only getting better with Contrares and Happ emerging. This youth is just another year older with more experience now. That being said im not sure if the cubs will be as good as last year or not.

    Play: Its a no play for me. An injury to John Lester or any of the other starters may be enough to get this under home as the rotation has little depth in a really good division. The Cubs will get several free wins from the Reds I projecting the Cubs winning anywhere from 91-94 wins so the line seems spot on to me.

  14. #14
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 11 - Colorado Rockies -

    Over/Under 81.5 Wins. Last Years # of Wins 87 with a +67 Run Diff.

    First glance i was shocked to see a somewhat low win total with this team that won 87 games last year. My knee jerk reaction was Over 81.5 and risk everything I have (which usually means its far from a lock). My first task was to figure out why the line is at 81.5 despite winning 87 games last year. For one, the Giants with all the offensive additions should be much improved. The Padres might be a little more competitive this year and they do draw the AL West which includes the Stros, Angels, and Mariners. But still we are talking about a win total that only has to win one more game than they lose this year.

    Strengths: The Lineup. Plenty of firepower for a hitter friendly Coors Field. Blackmon and Arenado both MVP Candidates last year. Add in Story, LaMahieu, Desmond, Cargo (although not what he once was), Tappia and Parra (valuable role players last year) and a young rookie Ryan McMahon (who has put together a very solid spring) . Its not secret this lineup will score plenty of runs.

    Weakness: Starting pitching. Although I am very high on Jon Gray's stuff there isn't much depth or star talent behind him. It is a "run of the mill" staff behind him and that might be giving them too much credit. The good news is the staff wasn't very good last year and they still won 87 games then. Even Sentazela who started off like a firecracker fell off on the back end. If Gray hadn't missed some time last year this team more than likely wins 90+ games. But lets be real this team only needs mediocre starting pitching to win games any ways.

    X-Factor and Why the Rockies win 85 games at a minimum:
    Its the Bullpen. They added Wade Davis & Bryan Shaw to an already very solid bullpen. These two shouldn't be bothered by the thin air at Coors field. After all you have to make contact for it to leave the yard. The Rockies brought in the exact guys they needed. Davis and Shaw both Power Arms with lights out cutters. I'm staring at this team to have a 2017 Yankee like bullpen. Rusin, Ottavino, Dunn, McGee are a pretty solid core. Now you added Shaw and Davis two Veteran lights out type arms. This may just be the best bullpen in baseball.

    So is the tougher schedule and weak starting pitching enough to scare me off the over 81.5 wins? Hell No. I think the oddsmakers clean missed on this one. I will prolly eat my words come July. But if I'm going to miss i might as well go down Swining! My 2nd favorite play of the year ROCKIES OVER 81.5 Wins +100 at 5D . (82.5 at bookmaker +115 if you aren't scared of the extra game)

  15. #15
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 12 - Arizona Dbacks

    Last years # of wins 93 with an astounding +153 run differential.

    The Line this year 85 wins.

    Dbacks lose JD Martinez and have replaced him with Souza Jr. (who will start the season on the DL). Other than that the offense pretty much stays the same outside of Brandon Drury who has moved on. The Dbacks also return all the starting pitching from last year. Its a very solid rotation that features Greinke at the top followed by two very good young arms in Ray and Walker. Ray has the potential to be a top end ace. The stuff is their but just needs to become more efficient. 110 pitches in 5 innings seems to be somewhat the norm for him. Walker is a tier below Ray in terms of wipe out stuff but still none the less is only 25 years old and coming off two pretty solid years. If walker can make the leap forward and become an anchor #3 starter this rotation should pan out nicely this year. Godley and Corbin on the back end are also very solid for 4 & 5 guys.

    The bullpen shipped Fernando Rodney out while bringing in Brad Boxberger & Hirino. The closer job for now is up and the air. Bradley is coming off a great season but they may use him the same way they did last year in somewhat of an andrew miller type role.

    Altogether there isnt much change in this Dbacks team in my eyes outside of the exit of JD Martinez. Again, the Giants should return to a much more competitive team in that division & they do draw the AL west in interleague but is this enough to keep the Dbacks under 85 wins?

    At this time i honestly am not sure. Its a total coin flip. A lot of things point to some regression for this team but at 85 wins the Dbacks could regress and still find a way to get over that. This one is going to be close and considering i expect the Rockies to be a somewhat surprise team I am going to lay off there just isn't any value in my eyes. No play.
    Last edited by Mr0ctober; 03-23-18 at 02:42 PM.

  16. #16
    Mr0ctober
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    Team #13 NL West

    Los Angeles Dodgers.

    Last Years wins: 104 with a +190 run differential

    This years over/under 95.5 wins

    It is no secret that the Dodgers are power house this day and age. Incredible talent all over the field. But based on a lot of numbers and the line we can expect some regression. I highly doubt the Dodgers win 100 games this year again but they certainly have the talent that i wouldn't be shocked if they did.

    This is pretty much the same team offensively that fell just short in the world series. Matt Kemp is back and the Dodger fans i know aren't happy about that as most of them celebrated when he left. Offensively there isn't much to talk about expect much of the same as last year. Although the recent Turner injury should hurt in the first month or two.

    The rotation is much the same as last year. Darvish departs but he wasn't there the whole year anyways. I doubt we see Alex Wood with another 16-3 year. And how much can you rely on a 38 year old Rich Hill? Maeda should be solid and a healthy Ryu would help them out tremendously. Also, I expect a 30 year old Kershaw to regress heavily this year as well. That was a joke Kershaw is Kershaw and i expect the same as we always get from Kershaw - Lights out, every time out. (until the postseason anyways) I do expect one thing and that is the dodgers to be a little more cautious with Kershaw in terms of keeping him fresh for the postseason. So look for them to handle him with extra care down the stretch assuming they are safely in the playoffs at that time.

    I don't know why I question the bridge in this bullpen (from the starter to the closer). Fields, Baez, Alexander were all pretty solid last year but for some reason my gut tells me this team struggles in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. I'm not a fan of Cingrani as his control seems non existent at times. But he is the only one i have a rather sour outlook towards.

    I haven't said hardly a negative word about this team other than the depth at SP behind Kersh could be to question and a gut feel of some pen issues so this play of the Under 95.5 probably doesn't make much sense. But that is where i am going Under 95.5 with a relatively small amount of confidence compared to the other plays i have locked in.

  17. #17
    Mr0ctober
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    Team 14 NL West -

    San Diego Padres.

    # of Wins last year 71

    Win total this year 71.5


    Its a brutal division and they don't have much pitching. Lamet is always fun to watch because of his electric stuff but outside of him i just don't watch or follow much of the Padres. The team also doesn't have much offense. sure they brought in Hosmer and still have Will Myers while Jose Pirela was nice last year and Margot is a good looking young piece. Its just not nearly enough to compete. Its an under or nothing for me. may throw a half unit on the under but not worth hanging my money up long term with this team.

  18. #18
    Mr0ctober
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    Team #15 - NL West

    San Fran Giants.

    Last year number of wins: 64

    This years line: 83.5

    Start with the Offense: Should be much improved offensively with the additions of Cutch and Longoria. Return Pence, Posey, Panik, Belt and Crawford. So they throw together a decent lineup. Austin Jackson will help defensively in CF covering good bit of ground in that gigantic park.

    Pitching: Mad Bum has looked very solid in spring so expect him to get back on track after his injury last year. The trouble with this team is where do they go after mad bum. For one, Cueto has to be better than last year for this team to have a chance at reaching the 84 win mark. Shark was pretty decent but im not sure decent is enough to win games in this division. Bullpen wise they can roll out three very good arms in Melancon (probably the closer), Strickland, and Tony Watson. I didn't include Dyson because i just don't believe in him.

    Will the Giants win more games than last year? I would certainly hope. Think they can win 20 more games than last year? No chance through my eyes. One injury to Mad Bum and you can kiss the chance of winning 84 games goodbye. This team just doesn't have the pitching depth to be better than a .500 ball club.

    Give me the Under 83.5.

  19. #19
    Mr0ctober
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    Before i dig into the American League going to recap the picks I have played:

    Nationals Over 93 wins -110 (1.75u)
    Mets Under 82.5 wins +105 (1u)
    Reds Under 74 wins -105 (1u)
    Pirates Over 73 wins -110 (1u)
    Rockies Over 81.5 wins +100 (1.5u)
    Dodgers Under 95.5 wins (0.5u)
    SF Giants Under 83.5 -110 (1u)
    Braves Over 74.5 wins -115 (0.75 u)
    Last edited by Mr0ctober; 03-23-18 at 07:44 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    7Faces gave Mr0ctober 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  20. #20
    Mr0ctober
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    American League East -
    Boston Red Sox - Last years wins - 93 with a +117 run differential.
    This years line: 92
    This team is a pretty solid mixture of pure young talent and good savvy veterans. Tons of young talent in Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, and Devers. Mix that with the likes of JD Martinez, Pedroia (injured as of now), Bogaerts, Hanley, and Morland you got a loaded squad offensively. The rotation Porcello, Sale and Price provide a nice veteran base. Porcello despite not a great year statistically he did throw 200+ innings which is a monster benefit to any team. David Price health always seems to be a concern in the recent past. Sale is Sale and is obviously the glorified ace of the staff. An overlooked part of this team last year was the bullpen who ran out three power arms that all averaged over 10+ ks per 9 innings. I am talking about Kimbrel, Heath Hembree, and Matt Barnes. And the flame throwing Joe Kelly was also a big part of last years success.

    This team is much of the same of last year just add in JD Martinez. Pomeranz looks to start the year on the DL so he could be a big missing piece to the starting rotation early.

    Here is one thing that stands out to me in terms of the win total. First off the AL East has that public perception of a loaded division. Is it that loaded though? The answer is absolutely not. Its a two horse race this year between the Yankees and Red Sox much like it was last year. Every other team is essentially in rebuild mode. Take a look at the other win totals. Orioles O/U 72.5, Rays 74.5, and the Jays 81. The Red Sox and the Yankees also will benefit from drawing a weak NL East in interleague play. outside of the nationals that division is very weak.

    The Red Sox have won 93 games each of the past two years and that was with a stronger division (as a whole). A long story short the Yankees are clearly just as good and should be better than last year. But so should the Red Sox! The other three teams all have gotten worse. Look for some of those weaker teams to get even weaker come mid season as they will be moving some of their stars in efforts to rebuild. All the hype with the Bronx bombers has taken to focus off of their rivals. This Red Sox over 92 wins and can even still find a 91.5 at a few shops seems like a sneaky good value play to me.

    If Pomeranz can make a return early in the year and the Price is right we shouldn't have to sweat this one too much down the stretch. The play Over 92.

  21. #21
    Mr0ctober
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    AL East - New York Yankees

    Wins last year: 91 with a +198 run differential

    The Line: 94.5

    Im going to go ahead and venture to guess most everyone is betting the over in this one. I try not pay attention to public numbers for the sole purpose that it seems to mess with my capping. In other words i try to keep my opinions and thoughts my own. If i start overthinking it thinking i'm on a square or sharp side then it starts to mess with me. The public always isnt wrong anyways.

    This Yankees team is much the same as last year with the addition of Stanton. Yes balls will be flying out of the yard at an incredible rate with Bird, Stanton, Judge and El Gary. The K's will also pile up as well. But i'm not going to talk about the offense at all.

    The things i think Yankees fans should be more excited is the bullpen will be just as good as last year and how good Tanaka looked late last year. I think Tanaka will have a big year personally as i will be on his win total over 12.5 wins but thats for another write up. He was victim of the homer last year if he can cut those numbers down he should get to 15 wins easy in my opinion. Also should get a full year of Sonny Gray who is a very solid big league starter. And then you have the 24 year old Stud in Severino which makes it a very very solid three at the top. I would say father time eventually has to catch up to CC but since he developed the cutter it has essentially . revamped his career. So i actually think he will be just fine this year. Im not saying MVP year but still has plenty left to get some wins. Then you have the bullpen which is just absolutely stacked you have 5 tremendous arms that are all capable in big money situations. Its the best pen in baseball which usually fares well in the postseason.

    As i mentioned in the Red Sox write up they get the NL East in interleague and the AL East is far from a stacked division. I see no reason why the Yankees and the Red Sox both can't surpass the win total set for their respective squads.

    Call me Joe Public but Over 94.5. Its not my favorite play but I still think we are looking at a winner come game 160.

  22. #22
    Mr0ctober
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    AL East

    Blue Jays 76 wins last year

    This years total 81.5


    Not going to comment much on this team as i think this one could go either way depending on how bad the Rays & O's are. I will say one thing a ton of this teams success will depend on Aaron Sanchez. When he is right, he is one of the best in the business as we saw two years ago. As a general fan of the game i really hope he is right for the sole fact i really enjoy watching this kid. If you haven't drafted you fantasy team yet be sure to scoop him up if he is still around late. This usually doesn't mean much but he has looked incredible in spring which could bode some confidence. I will probably find a way to get down on some type of Sanchez prop but have yet to get into those. As far as the win total its a total coin flip as i said. No feel no play

    AL East - Baltimore O's

    Last Years wins - 75

    This years line: 72.5

    The line opened much higher so congrats if you got in on the under at 75 or better. With the line down to 72.5 its going to be a no play as i just lost too much value. Trumbo & Britton both will start year on the DL and who knows how much they will contribute this year. I look for this team to start selling come July. I do really like the Bundy kid as he is a joy to watch i really hope he turns into a star which he has the potential just has to put it altogether. He was a top prospect in baseball and one of the more highly touted prospects ever. That was until he suffered the injury. His fastball had no trouble hitting 100 and since the best we have seen is 94-96. There is plenty of time as he is just 25 years of age but this year will tell us a lot about where he will go from here. For Orioles fans and baseball fans i hope he starts to bloom this year.

    Andrew Cashner as #2 starter makes me want to play the under but the value is gone imo. If you want to gamble its an under still for me but Im laying off completely

  23. #23
    Mr0ctober
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    AL East - Tampa Rays

    Last years wins: 80

    The Line: 75


    The casual baseball fan won't recognize many names on this team. The positives - team speed and should be decent defensively with Kiermiar in CF. Thats about it. The Offense should be pretty bad. The starting pitching despite having Chris Archer at the top should also be pretty bad. The bullpen could be average - maybe. There is just not enough talent on this team. Unless Archer wins 20+ games - Faria & Snell wildly overachieve - this team has no chance to win 75 games imo. They have made it clear they are in rebuild mode so it should be a race to who can win 70 games first between them and the Orioles. Sometimes the obvious choice is the right choice - hope that holds true here - Rays Under 74.5 (+105) (1u)

  24. #24
    Mr0ctober
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    AL Central - Cleveland Indians

    Wins last Year = 102 with a whopping +254 run differential.

    This years line: 94

    The tribe are obviously a World Series contender. They allowed just 564 runs last year nearly best in the American League (yankees 2nd w/ 660 allowed) by almost 100 runs. They run two aces at the top in Kluber and Carrasco which sets them up very very well for postseason play. The three headed monster in Shaw, Miller and Allen last year will become just Miller and Allen. They also lose a very valuable hitter in Carlos Santana who always seem to put together solid at bats. I do not expect this team to win 100 games again this year because but 94 seems pretty reasonable. I expect some regression from this team but this division outside of the Twins is going to be the worst in baseball. Therefore its a no play for me. Brantley's health is always a concern. If Salazar can work his way back into the rotation and give this team another lights out arm i would easily say over 94 wins. But there are just too many questions at this point. The tribe could very well run have three guys strike out 200+ this year which is pretty incredible and if Salazar could work his way back into the rotation early it could actually be 4 guys with 200+ Ks. That is up and the air as far as Salazars role for the upcoming season as he first has to get healthy. Michael Brantley looks to start the season on the DL also so with those two big question marks Ill stay away on this one. NO PLAY

  25. #25
    Mr0ctober
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    AL Central - Minnesota Twins

    Last years # of wins - 85 with run differential of +27

    The Line 83.5

    The Twins were a pretty solid team last year that won 85 games while only outscoring their opponents by just 27 runs which suggest they benefited by some good luck. The twins made some solid upgrades in bringing in Logan Morrison (who should regress some) - Lance Lynn and Fernando Rodney. Its a very young team with a lot of offensive potential for sure. Miguel Sano looks to be in the clear in terms of his possible suspension that was looming for sexual assault. Buxton may be poised for a breakout year this year as he really made a big stride forward offensively last year.

    The rotation got some bad news as Ervin Santana will look to be out more than the original thought 8 weeks. Santana was a big part of this teams success last year as he won 16 games. This likely means Berrios will need to step up and fill the aces shoes. Berrios was phenomenal last year at home 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. However, on the road, he was a sub par 5-7 with a 5.15 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. That will certainly be something to watch as we get into season betting . Berrios as a favorite on the road might be some pretty solid fade material.

    This win total certainly jumped out to me as an over at first glance with the horrible division the Twins will play in. But losing Santana with a rotation that doesn't have a ton of depth just scares me away. I have a feeling the this might be a lost year for Santana as he can't even grip a baseball as of now. Another no play for me.

  26. #26
    Mr0ctober
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    The rest of the AL Central -

    White Sox O/U 70
    Royal O/U 69.5
    Tigers O/U 67.5

    These three teams will be fighting to stay out of last in the AL Central. My Guess is one of these teams goes over the win total and wins 70+ games only for the sole fact that you usually don't see three 90-100 loss teams in the same division. Although if anyone can do it it would be these three teams. Im not going to go into much depth on any of them as there are just too many questions in terms of win totals. The White Sox really have some good young talent but they will have to go through the growing pains for the next couple years. The Tigers will likely be horrible again this year as they just don't have enough talent. Miguel Cabrera repeats this year what he did last year and they prolly lose a near 100 games again. The over i would lean on of these three would be the Royals. As they may have just enough to win 70+ games. Again i don't trust any of these teams though. Not this year anyways.

  27. #27
    Mr0ctober
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    AL West - Houston Astros

    Wins last year: 101 run differential of +196


    The line: 97.5

    This team isn't going anywhere (except up) anytime soon. I think this is still the best team in the majors. Springer, Altuve, Correa and Bregman on the same team you just don't see this that often in the MLB. This team runs away with the West again this year and no one would be shocked to see them end up in and win the fall classic again. Repeat champions are not common but if theres a team that is plenty capable of it its the 2018 Houston Astros. The Rotation is undoubtably better with the addition of Gerrit Cole and we saw just how good Verlander was last year. McCullers is only going to get better & Keuchel has proved he can be a top end starter in the bigs. This team is one of the funnest teams i can remember watching in a long time. They are Young, Loose, Hungry and Insanely Talented! They have young stars with a combination of Veterans that can still preform. Its a perfect storm for success.

    All that being said i just can't bet on an MLB team to win 100 games. It just doesn't offer the value. Sure they can win 100 games but they could win 95 too. Either way they are winning the West but will they win 100? im not sure. No Play. The value actually probably lays with the under but you won't find me fading this team on a season long bet.

  28. #28
    Mr0ctober
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    Hey Guys im back. i looked to get back into the forum stuff last year and drew up a preview until running into some life stuff that shut me down for the year. I will be back at it starting today with my previews. I had a very good year in terms of baseball betting and win totals as you can see above but just didnt have the time to keep up on the forum. i did keep up on tweetter (dm if you want the handle) best i could where i post all my plays but looking to post all my previews and plays throughout the year on here. Good luck everyone as always. Make some money!

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