Hey Guys, I am new to the forum. I consider myself a hardcore baseball capper. I cap all sports but baseball is my main focus as i follow it in much more detail than any other sport. I will be posting win totals team by team as we grow closer to the season. Capping win totals is more than looking at the teams roster and saying over or under. Have to keep in mind what teams will be sellers or buyers come the trade deadline. Also important to cap the teams within the teams division you are capping. For example, the Marlins look like a 100 loss team therefore you have to factor that in when capping the Mets, Phils, Nats, and Braves
Team 1: NL East - Washington Nationals.
Buyers or Sellers: The Nationals will be "all in" this year in terms of going after a world series (much like last year) and likely buyers at the deadline. As of now, this is the final contract year for Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Gio, Madson, and Weiters among others.
Last years # of wins: 97. Thats right 97 wins with a +147 run differential.
Division teams & Interleague: Mets & Phillies should make some improvements in the win column this year compared to last while the braves also should be a little better than last year. The Marlins will be taking a massive step back as this could be one of the worst MLB teams we have seen in a long time. Although, most of the division outside of the Marlins should be making a small stride forward, I expect the Nationals to making a step forward as well. The Nationals did draw the AL East in terms of interleague which means you will get the Yankees and Redsox which isn't the best but they should have no problem holding their own in those series.
Analysis: Last year the Nationals missed Adam Eaton for basically the whole year. They also missed Trea Turner for better than 1/3rd of the season. I consider Trea Turner to be probably the most underrated player in the league as he is an incredible so called "table setter." Assuming you have those two guys as catalysts at the top i can only see this team being much better than last year. The Nationals had a glaring hole for much of the season last year in terms of their bullpen. In 2017, the Nationals bullpen carried a 4.41 ERA which was good enough for 23rd best of 30 teams. They also allowed a bottom tier .251 average and blew 17 saves in 2017. The bullpen for a 97 team win team last year wasn't good to say the least. Those numbers should be much improved in 2018 because that issue was addressed when they aquired Madson, Doolittle, and Kintzler. I cant imagine this team winning less than 95 games & i actually expect them to win upward 90s and maybe even 100+ games. Scherzer, Stras, and Gio are an outstanding trio of arms and with a healthy eaton & turner in front of Bryce, Murphy, Zim, Rendon, and a bolstered bullpen the Nationals should win this division pretty easy and surpass the 93 game win total. I actually believe the Nats will sign Jake Arietta who is a scott boras client as are many of the Nationals players. I was able to get a max bet for me as soon as the odds came out on BOL when they had the Nats -150 to win the NL East. That number is long gone. But i wouldn't worry about that as you can still get the Nationals Over 93 or 93.5 wins this year at several shops. Nothing is a sure thing because you always have injury factors but its pretty much impossible to cap injuries.
Play: Nationals Over 93 or 93.5 Wins. This is my favorite Win total play of the Year!