Originally Posted by
Ganchrow HG
Cleveland/Toronto under (9.5 -110): Shaun Marcum is near the top of the current list of "under the radar" quality starters in the majors. He's been very consistent and very effective as a starter this year, and it's not a huge surprise as he has always been known to have quality stuff.
On the other side, Fausto Carmona himself earlier in the year was one of the top under the radar starters in the majors, although now he is a known entity and probably appropriately rated. Still, he is likely to have a solid start here.
This line may be a bit inflated due to yesterday's high scoring game against two supposedly quality pitchers, Halladay and Lee. But right now, both of today's starters are significantly better than both of yesterday's starters IMO, and if they both have starts similar to most of those they have had this year, this game will more likely stay under than go over.
Boston/Detroit over (10 -105): Detroit has been an over machine this year, and with their powerful lineup and shaky bullpen, it stands to reason. They are especially good against lefties, and Kason Gabbard will likely be vulnerable here.
Jeremy Bonderman is also hittable at times, and Boston could easily get to him for a few runs or more. But even if they don't, if Detroit hits Gabbard, this game could wind up as another patented blowout by Detroit, where they score close to double digits or more all by themselves.
Add it all up, and this game is more likely to go over than to stay under IMO.
Atlanta ML (+120): I'm going to take a shot with Atlanta and first-time starter Jo-Jo Reyes as a small underdog.
Reyes was top-notch in the minors this year, although he didn't go deep in his starts, and probably won't here either. However, with Atlanta's offense possibly perking up, even at Petco, and facing a decent but not unhittable starter in David Wells, Atlanta may be able to jump out to a sizable enough lead that their admittedly iffy bullpen, which got a bit of rest yesterday, will be able to hold against San Diego's unspectacular lineup.
In this game, the edge has a relatively low degree of confidence, but it is also relatively large, making it a decent play IMO.
Texas ML (+115): Brandon McCarthy has been unsteady this year, as he has been in his career so far. But he has also shown flashes of talent, as he has his whole career. He may be primed for a solid start here against the Baltimore lineup, which is ok at times, but in general nothing special.
On the other side, Erik Bedard is a quality lefty, no doubt. But he has not pitched that well at Ameriquest in his career, and he also often doesn't go deep into his starts. If he leaves this game relatively early, Texas will have a decent shot at a comeback at home against Baltimore's iffy bullpen if they are down by a smallish margin.
All in all, I think Texas has some value as a home underdog here.
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July 7 Ganchalysis
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