[tlk23]

Obviously, the risk involved is losing both bets if the margin is one run. However, you are guaranteed to win if the margin is more the one. Probably not the smartest of strategies, but what are your thoughts?

How about this? Don't bet on teams that are still -100 or worse when they are given -1.5? Just bet on the run line (-1.5) when you can get both teams at +100 or better. Here is how games finished when both teams were +100 or better at -1.5, so that you are guaranteed a win unless the margin is exactly one run.

Sept. 13: 8-2 - Only 2 of the 10 games where each team at -1.5 was +100 or better had the exactly finish of one run.
Sept. 12: 6-4 - Not great
Sept. 11: 4-1
Sept. 10: 9-0
Sept. 9: 7-3
Sept. 8: 8-2

Today I tried it out for the first time on a few games.
Bet $15 on the Cubs (-1.5) -110 to win $13.
Also bet the Mets (-1.5) +300 to win $15
Cubs won big, so I ended +$8. If the Mets would have won by more than a run, then I break even. If the game is a one run margin, I would have lost $20.


Also bet $10 on the Phillies (-1.5) at +155 to win $15 and $6 on the Marlins (-1.5) at +185 to win $11.
Phillies won big. Ended up +$9.

[Ro0k]

Anybody have any data on how many one run games there have been in past seasons?

[JerseyGodFather]

Interesting strategy

[tlk23]

Sept 14: 6-2
Sept 15: 6-5
Sept 16: 10-2
Sept 17: 8-2
Sept 18: 5-1
Sept 19: 5-7

Last night was the first time it has been under .500. This past weekend was very successful at 23-5.

[5918mike]

Now let me see how I can work this into using 2 books to get bonus money from one to another.

[tlk23]

Sept. 20: 6-2
Sept. 21: 6-1

[Mike Huntertz]

Between 28% and 30% of all games are decided by 1 run,

[Crayzee]

ive been fooling a little with this type strategy in bases and in foots
but in bases ive been moving the line to minus 3 on games that are pick- ish
same on foots moving to minus 3 to 6

also moving totals down on under or up on over s


mixed results so far

[sk0002]

you should track it by units won/lost, the way you track it is confusing, no idea if you are up or down in units.

[Rich Boy]

Probably a losing strategy unless you can find games where those prices are undervalued, ie Colorado games or games with high totals and heavy road favorites

[BigDofBA]

I tried this and it worked both great and horrible.

So yeah, nothing conclusive but it seems like a losing strategy.

There also seem to be a few nights when every game is like a one run game.

[Rich Boy]

Its the old saying you cant turn two -EV wagers into a positive one without some correlation

Thats not the case here, the only way to win is if you find an edge on either or both of the runlines, which is possible since they are smaller markets and are subject to more volatility.

Imagine if the books offered lines (will game be decided by 1 run) which some do but its a rare prop. Same thing but you are trying to out think yourself here. Keep it simple and look for value on one side or another