[grease lightnin]

I have noticed that when a line moves in favor of a talented pitcher who is inconsistent, or talented but pitching bad lately, that they often pitch very well.

Is this because someone has inside info that the pitcher has been on point in practice, or some other info that leads them to believe the pitcher is gonna deal that day?

Case in point--Homer Bailey today. Line opened -129 Brewers today, dropped to -114 at one point, closed at -140, but still seems like somebody knew Bailey was going to be the best version of himself today.

And I have seen this before.

Thoughts?

[Sam Odom]

NoCoin or Fishhead

need to check In

[Stew-Minga]

It's referred to as bouncing back after a bad outing.

I have noticed that when a line moves in favor of a talented pitcher who is inconsistent, or talented but pitching bad lately, that they often pitch very well.

Is this because someone has inside info that the pitcher has been on point in practice, or some other info that leads them to believe the pitcher is gonna deal that day?

Case in point--Homer Bailey today. Line opened -129 Brewers today, dropped to -114 at one point, closed at -140, but still seems like somebody knew Bailey was going to be the best version of himself today.

And I have seen this before.

Thoughts?

[RangeFinder]

There may be other reasons other than the starting pitcher. It could be a manager resting a player on the opposing side or an injury, sickness or whatever. A bullpen may be taxed or lack of help because of an illness or injury. Many factors play in other than starting pitching when it comes to a number moving. Best thing to do is check starting lineups, and who may or may not be available out of the bullpen. In other words, you have to do some homework besides just line watching.

[grease lightnin]

There may be other reasons other than the starting pitcher. It could be a manager resting a player on the opposing side or an injury, sickness or whatever. A bullpen may be taxed or lack of help because of an illness or injury. Many factors play in other than starting pitching when it comes to a number moving. Best thing to do is check starting lineups, and who may or may not be available out of the bullpen. In other words, you have to do some homework besides just line watching.

Absolutely I understand there are other factors to consider.

It is just that I have observed several instances where there was a talented pitcher who was in a slump, or just inconsistent, that had lines move in their favor, and they pitch lights out in the game. Several.... times.

[RangeFinder]

Could very well be smart money. Best thing to do is start writing down every time you see this and how it fares long term. You'll need many samples of games to determine if this is an edge. Backtesting may be an option though that will take a lot of research. Keep an eye out and post when you see this again and maybe some posters can help out on why the number moved.

[grease lightnin]

Yea maybe I will do that next year, Ranger.