Typo?Originally Posted by koreatine
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08-18-17 12:21 PM #36
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08-18-17 12:31 PM #37
Yes. Thank you Originally Posted by oilcountry99
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08-18-17 12:43 PM #38
I was just in the 538 site...have you ever looked at the results of taking strong pitching +44 or better and a winning percentage over 60%?? I just parlayed the ML for Cleveland and Washington.
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08-18-17 12:50 PM #39
Idk if you looked at my spreadsheet but I do have the pitchers value taken into equation. I highlighted the pitchers in yellow that have a +10 advantage. Whether that isn't enough, too much, or whatever the case may be remains to be seen. I haven't focused too much on those yet. Originally Posted by Pickem2win
That's kind of why I would like to partner with a database guy. So we can manipulate some data to see if there is a legitimate edge that can be gained using the pitching values.
Right now I have not taken those into equation at all, but I'm hoping at some point I can.
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08-18-17 03:05 PM #40
Originally Posted by koreatine
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08-18-17 10:10 PM #41
Got another win with the Reds tonight.
Hoping to build a streak.
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08-18-17 11:16 PM #42
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08-18-17 11:35 PM #43
That probably won't happen from a "forum" aspect. Originally Posted by dtd069
This is a fun time killer, but nothing more than that for me.
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08-18-17 11:55 PM #44
So, out of the games I have. Pitchers with a 44+ are 25-11 for +353 Originally Posted by Pickem2win
If you narrow that down to them also having to have a 65% win probability or better, they're 12-1. Those games you're basically talking about Kershaw, Kluber and Scherzer with one game of Sale.
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08-19-17 12:28 AM #45
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08-19-17 08:28 AM #46
Easy winner... Originally Posted by Pickem2win
Can't find 2 teams with pitching advantage of +40 or better today. Boston definitely qualifies at +55 and 64% chance of winning. Next best team was Arizona at +27 pitching and 56% chance. I parlayed those ML at +133 odds but it's not exactly what I wanted...
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08-19-17 08:57 AM #47
Yeah. I've never been somebody who's bet crazy MLs, except if it was a dog. At the 65% with the +44 qualification, you're talking about -200 and above and I agree, parlaying the games will be the way to go if any and I don't know how many times there are two games on the night that fit that criteria given that there are only 3-4 pitchers that warrant those kind of numbers to begin with. Originally Posted by Pickem2win
Everything I do is so that I "DON'T" have to bet those games.
I've got a couple other systems I'm using to balance out the lack of games my manipulated system puts out. I get about 2-3 games a day total between the systems.
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08-19-17 09:21 AM #48
3-2 in Notable Lines last night and 1-0 in official plays.
Notable lines 25-23 (+640) in August
Official plays 9-6 (+296) in August
Today's Notable Lines:
Rays -129 (Must close at -130 or worse)
Athletics +164 (Must close at +140 or worse)
Mets -109 (Must close at -110 or worse)
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08-19-17 11:11 AM #49
Thanks Rams. Hopefully we can get the Mets today, and who knows, maybe the A's will also drop to +140 or below like we need them to. Originally Posted by Jowframs
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08-19-17 04:01 PM #50
Mets and A's will be cutting it close.
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08-19-17 09:57 PM #51
Second night in a row the late (1 min before start) line move ends up knocking the game out of "official play" status.
Last night Red Sox, and tonight Mets were still bet for me and some of my guys, but fortunately for us they both won.
This is the nature of the beast when it comes to betting line moves and having thresh holds, but luckily the notable lines, are lines that still do well in the long run.
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08-20-17 09:03 AM #52
1-2 in Notable Lines last night
Notable Lines 26-25 (+527) in August
Plays 9-6 (+296) in August
Today's Notable Lines:
Yankees -108 (Must close -110 or worse)
A's +188 (Must close +140 or worse)
Padres +104 (Must close +103 or worse) Hoping Padres can stay in play status.Last edited by koreatine; 08-20-17 at 09:38 AM.
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08-20-17 09:57 AM #53
So far 1-1 in this experiment with BOTH Boston and Arizona loosing yesterday.... Originally Posted by Pickem2win
Today going with the Giants with a 64% chance of winning and +41 pitching. Still can't find that perfect 2nd team to parlay....going with the best I can find which is the Mets at 57% chance of winning and +41 pitching.
Parlaying both at +123 odds.
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08-20-17 10:10 AM #54
Cool bro. You're welcome to my sheets just to see if you can spot any sort of line move trend or whatever the case may be to maybe strength the plays or widen your thresh holds rather than just go with the pitching value and the win %. Originally Posted by Pickem2win
You might want to take into consideration first 5 since those values are for starting pitching.
538 is a great source imo, but just like everything it's all how you use the data. I'm sure there's an edge that can be gained with the pitching values, it just might not be as simple as what you're doing now.
For my manipulated games system. It was something I had read in a book a while back so I just started doing some sorts implementing that approach to try to get my data to mirror the manipulated games and that's how the system I've been posting was developed. The data that was showing up based on the way I was sorting the games with the deflation/inflation backed up what I was thinking/knew the entire time.
Try to think of something "more," some kind of logical approach in relation to baseball or the sports betting industry in general. Be as creative as you can and and then try to manipulate the data to fit that scenario and see what the results look like. That's what I recommend.Last edited by koreatine; 08-20-17 at 10:19 AM.
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08-20-17 05:01 PM #55 Notable Lines
Curious why Baltimore and Minnesota were not included in the Notable Lines for today? Thanks for your time and efforts.
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08-20-17 10:02 PM #56
It's interesting that all the underdogs here are winning vs the favorite with the "superior" pitching... even the first 5 innings all favorites were down in 4 straight games. Originally Posted by koreatine
So far only 2 winners out of 6 favorites on the 538 site (with the strongest pitching edge. Your actually better off betting the underdogs! Of course this is only a 3 day sample...
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08-21-17 12:02 AM #57
When I entered the data those lines weren't out yet. Been a busy day. Originally Posted by boonie26
You're welcome.
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08-21-17 12:03 AM #58
Exactly. It's definitely something to pay attention to. Originally Posted by Pickem2win
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08-21-17 05:37 AM #59
Yesterday 2-3 in Notable Lines and 0-2 in Plays. The A's managed to hit at a +233 dog so the day was salvaged as a break even day.
Notable Lines: 28-28 +524 in August
Plays: 9-8 +60 in August
Notable Lines since June 18: 95-85 +1794
Plays since June 18: 52-29 +2412
Pretty dull month, but hey, we're still up money off notable lines. Not nearly as beastly of a month as July, but it's nice to see "some" profit rather than a tanking system fresh off it's biggest month of the year.
Thank you to boonie26 for spotting Baltimore and Minnesota. I did not list them because at the time I did my sheet, lines were not up and I didn't get home until 9pm.
No Plays Today.Last edited by koreatine; 08-21-17 at 06:21 AM.
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08-22-17 11:49 AM #60
Notable Lines: 28-28 +524 in August
Plays: 9-8 +60 in August
Today's Notable Lines:
Phillies -119 Game 1 (Must close -121 or worse)
Pirates +108 (Must close +106 or worse)
Phillies +119 Game 2 (Must close +118 or worse)
Pirates already into favorite status. I have them locked in at -102 and have the Phillies for game 2 locked in at +104
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08-22-17 11:53 AM #61
glad to see phils made the cut. locked them in before i even read that Originally Posted by koreatine
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08-22-17 12:12 PM #62
Good stuff ODB. Good luck to us Originally Posted by OlDirtyBaztid
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08-29-17 02:41 PM #63
did you pack it in? cricket...cricket
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