[StLouisCards]

A kind soul claimed my articles were undefeated when posted...I wish that were true...but I think they are undefeated in providing well-researched detail....the powers that be at SBR decide today that my article is too long, so I post it here in full. Enjoy the read, thanks, and BOL

Back Underdog Rays vs Slumping Indians


The Indians are a popular pick to rebound against the Rays. But the Rays have significant value as underdogs at home.


The Indians have dropped 4 out of their last 5, but still maintain a slim lead in the AL Central. Offensively, they have struggled, scoring 1 or 2 runs in each of their last 7 games. They'll hope to receive a boost by mixing former Met Jay Bruce, despite his 0-for-15 slump, into their starting lineup. Last night, the Rays themselves broke a streak of 5 straight games scoring 2 or fewer runs. Corey Dickerson ended an 0-for-21 slump by launching a three-run home run to propel the Rays to a 4-1 victory. A late-inning victory can provide a spark plug for a team and the Rays will look to build off of last night’s win against Indians’ pitcher Carlos Carrasco. In 76 career at-bats against Carrasco, current Rays’ batters are hitting just .211 with 4 extra-base hits. The Indians’ batters have yet to face Rays’ starter Jacob Faria.


Jacob Faria (5-2 2.81 ERA) starts for Tampa Bay. His rookie campaign has been up-and-down. He started in June with a 2.23 ERA and 7:1 K:BB ratio. He had the confidence and stuff to challenge hitters even in the more hittable parts of the strike zone. His most effective pitch has been his fastball, which averages a modest 92 mph, but enjoys good rising action. Its late explosion deceives hitters, who think that they see a pitch which they can hit, and generates a lot of whiffs. The perceived velocity of his fastball is also enhanced by its collaboration with his changeup, which creates an effective change of pace because it averages about 10 mph less his fastball. Faria’s fastball was an element of surprise for opposing batters, who often let him get away with throwing this pitch down the middle of the plate. In June, he was also able to vary his location of the pitch and, in particular, pound the lower, less hittable part of the strike zone with it. In July, he lost a bit of his explosiveness with this pitch, but especially struggled to locate it. With higher frequency, Faria was throwing his fastball for a ball or in the upper, more hittable parts of the strike zone. Batters were swinging less often at it, because they were able to tell that it would land for a ball, but slugging it more often for a home run. They were able to be more selective in their approach. Faria responded to his difficulties with the explosiveness and location of his fastball by throwing his other pitches more often. He also throws a slider and an impressive change that cuts on the inside of right-handed batters, and rarely mixes in a curveball. His other pitches were not as effective when he was struggling with his fastball. Faria had relied especially on his fastball to start ahead of and work from behind the count. Since he was more frequently unable to start ahead of the count, he was stacking the odds against himself. He had to be more cautious with his location and hitters were taking advantage of pitches that were landing in the more hittable parts of the zone. In July, his ERA was 3.72 and he was walking about 5 batters for every 7 strikeouts achieved. His last start against Milwaukee was solid; 1 ER allowed in 6 innings and a 9:2 K:BB ratio. He was punished when he left his fastball in the middle of the plate, but showed that he can still dominate a lineup when his primary pitch isn’t consistently working for him. He’ll look to continue a positive streak on the mound against the slumping Indians


Carlos Carrasco (10-5 4.06 ERA) counters for Cleveland. Carrasco was the victim of bad defense in his last start against the Yankees. He had allowed only 1 run after 5 innings until a very playable ball for outfielder Austin Jackson landed for a 3-run triple. But luck doesn’t completely explain his home/road splits. His FIP (this is like ERA, but factors out luck) is 4.35 at home but 3.08 on the road. At home and on the road, he especially struggles against left-handed batters, who are slugging .517 against hin. Tropicana Field, a ballpark that, like Cleveland’s Progressive Field, but only more so, favors left-handed batters, is a dangerous venue for Carrasco. Carrasco enjoys a variety of pitches, but relies especially on the fastball and slider. His fastball blazes at an average of 94-95 mph. He loves to throw it in all situations: to start ahead of the count, when behind in the count, and, especially against left-handed hitters, as a strikeout pitch. His use of the fastball has often been problematic because, like Faria, he leaves it too frequently over the middle of the plate, where opponents can take advantage. When his fastball location is poor, the high velocity works against him, because batters are launching this pitch with at least equally high exit velocity. This year, opponents are slugging .692 against his fastball and yet he has thrown it with almost twice as much frequency than any other pitch. He has developed a mixture of breaking and off-speed pitches that largely explains his success, particularly because he is able to use them to keep opponents off-balance. He can induce whiffs with them but also throw them in the strike zone in order to freeze batters who had been bracing for his high-velocity fastball. His slider, curve and changeup collaborate to create an effective change of pace with his fastball and each possesses difficult movement that batters have difficulty tracking. His slider, which is his second most frequently thrown pitch, has been virtually impossible to hit, even for left-handed batters. Against left-handed batters, he can use his slider to expand the strike zone by creating the illusion of a fastball that will land on the inside corner of the plate. The slider enjoys a late horizontal break towards the left-handed batter. When he thinks that he is swinging at a fastball, he finds himself whiffing at a slider that is inside and off the plate. Another weapon that he utilizes against left-handed batters is the change-up, which can appear to land in the strike zone, only to elude the opponent’s bat with late sinking movement. Expect a lot of sliders and change-ups against Tampa Bay’s hitters, who will likely struggle to „catch up“ with these lower-velocity, moving pitches while they are bracing for his fastball. The Rays will look to reverse their prior struggles against Carrasco particularly by slugging his fastballs.


The Verdict


The Indians’ lineup is mired in a slump. The team as a whole has been spiraling lately, repeatedly finding ways to lose late in outings. On the contrary, the Rays can build off of last night’s dramatic victory and have the advantage of facing their second consecutive power fastball pitcher. The comparison between starting pitchers is even, but the Rays can count on their bullpen late in the game. Tommy Hunter was dominant in 1.2 innings against the Indians and, having thrown only 19 pitches, should be available, as should Steve Cishek, who is enjoying a 9-inning scoreless streak. In a rather even match-up, we are getting the home team at + odds and an excellent opportunity to be contrarian on our MLB Picks.


MLB Pick: Rays ML (+125)
Best Line Offered: 5Dimes