-1.00 SEATTLE first five innings -1.00 SEATTLE game moneyline -1.15 Under 10 NYM@CIN -1.20 Over 6 -120 first five innings DET@COL +1.00 Under 4.5 first five innings BOS@TOR +1.00 CUBS moneyline
8/29: -2.35 units Thread: -24.23 units (W/L = 22-33-1 overall = .400 pct)
+0.36 units on PARLAY 2-teams, reduced payout one-leg push (COL first five innings score 1-1 = push)
Thread: -23.87 units (W/L = 23-33-1 overall = .410 pct)
I hesitate grading this as a win, but is what it is, reduced to one-leg win (its not a loss).
My parlay picks in this thread actually have a winning record and +positive units....maybe should stick to parlays??? Often have thoughts about doing some wild parlays with sometimes more than 2-teams would be interesting to track it and try.
For example, you know how every once in awhile the entire card of dogs win (maybe all but one dog win outright).....those days although rare would have a huge payout amount on like a 4,5,or 6 teamer. Anyone try that? I know sometimes CappinTerp has posted some over/under parlays....but I'm talking about taking a slate mixed with dogs for a bigger pay multiplier.
Cleveland has won too many games in a row. Chicago has won game 2 of their previous couple series vs CLE. I'm not doubting the difference between these teams, just like the spot and the price.
If tonight doesn't go CWS favor, I will seriously double the amount for tomorrow's game.
yesterday's game looked promising first inning, and Cleveland pitchers were really off their game. However White Sox were worse and couldn't take advantage. Let's see if Cleveland softens up this game. Obviously CLE runline was the better play yesterday and probably today but I do feel the White Sox can avoid the sweep.
+2.20 SAN DIEGO +110 -1.25 WHITE SOX -1.10 Under 6.5 -110 COL@LAD
9/7: -0.15 units Thread: -28.12 units (W/L = 24-38-1 overall = .387 pct)
…...............................
OVER/UNDERS record in the Thread (included in overall record): Thread: -21.41 units (W/L = 6-17-1 overall = .260 pct)
**Documented evidence why shouldn't play totals, maybe exception a very certain spot play.
Today's White Sox play had a late pitching scratch, no technically no action, but I'm still grading it as a loss because such horrible play, when the obvious was Cleveland runline the entire series.
Last edited by hotcross; 09-07-17 at 11:24 PM.
Reason: correct
Sonny Gray starts vs. Blake Snell. Expect Mr. Gray to give up a couple home runs to the Rays and Tampa to be motivated at home to gain ground on potential wildcard birth against division rival.
Tuesday - play #2
PARLAY 2-TEAMS
CUBS -330 + MINN -175
1 unit to win 1.05
Cubs game is a mismatch all the way pitching and lineups, hence the high favorite line which has bid up to -330 before game time. As for San Diego at Minnesota I'd give the Padres a chance to win a game in the series but Minnesota certainly not going to be swept at home vs this team.
+1.26 TAMPA BAY moneyline +1.05 PARLAY 2-teams CHC+MINN
9/12: +2.31 units Thread: -25.81 units (W/L = 26-38-1 overall = .406 pct)
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PARLAYS record in the Thread (included in overall record): Thread: +5.51 units (W/L = 4-1 = .800 pct) (all 2-teamers)
MLB season so many missed opportunity for me this year. Definitely off-track for some personal reasons I think. Done very well MLB previous years but that can never be a sure thing. I plan to do better next year, and have more multi-team parlays.
Wed. Sep.13
LAA ANGELS of ANAHEIM -116
1.16 units to win 1
Mike Fiers HOU @ LAA Tyler Skaggs is the pitching matchup and if you have not seen Mr. Fiers pitch lately one word could sum it up, choose a word, such as B-O-O-T-Y. Been so bad we might get a repeat performance of him nailing someone in the jaw with a pitch as he did to one Giancarlo Stanton a couple years ago. He must totally run out if gas this time of year. As for both teams, have not been in winning form lately either team. HOU this is their 9th road game. LAA it's 2nd game on homestand. The LAA moneyline opened as the dog, so at -116 too late on getting best price but for a unit, worth a crack on Angels. I'd also be fine with a first five innings play as bad as Fiers has looked, but Angels hitters are not fearsome and have not hit him well in the past although they have all faced him a decent amount of AB's and I just don't see Fiers getting on track regardless. Angels have precious few games left to try to get a wildcard so they should be motivated.
Friday Sep.22 - play #1
TAMPA BAY -110 moneyline
1.1 units to win 1
Orioles won the series opener Thursday by a score of 3-1. These divisional teams have split the season series with the Orioles now 7-6 vs Rays after last night's win. I expect this to continue with the teams trading wins as they play 6 more games this season including tonight.
I'm not a believer in Ubaldo Jimenez starting for the Birds, and Cobb has far superior numbers for the Rays. Will Tampa show up for the remainder of the season, don't know. The line opened with Baltimore as a slight favorite and already now shifting to Tampa at -110 I'm locking them in right now.
For my first pairing I have both NL West wildcard contenders winning tonight. Gray listed pitcher must start for the Rockies, and Greinke for the Dbacks. Both games are a pitching mismatch. Although Colorado has struggled, they must beat the Padres to race for a wildcard spot especially given tonight's pitching mismatch.
The second parlay you can see are live dogs. Again focusing on pitchers, Garrett Richards is about the best hope for the Angels to steal one in Houston. And with Boston at Cincy it appears Romano should have the upper hand against Porcello.
Sunday Oct.1 (Last day of regular season)
2 plays -
TORONTO +140 // 1 unit to win 1.4
SF GIANTS -135 // 1.35 units to win 1
TOR@NYY - Yankees are going to rest some players today, with their pending Wildcard game against MINN already set for Tuesday. I don't honestly know which players, furthermore the Blue Jays may decide to wuss-out and sit players also? Starting pitcher Brett Anderson for Toronto had his ERA jump two games ago (Sep.20 start) when he gave up 8 runs in less than two innings of work before he was pulled at home vs KC. Why back him? Just saying his ERA is higher than usual due to the terrible start. See this game more as a coinflip so taking the +moneyline as the Yankees already pretty much said they're not trying hard to win today.
SD@SF - Wow how things have gone sour when you have Johnny Cueto ONLY -135 at home vs. Padres. The teams split the first 2 games of this season ending series....but get this....Padres have won EVERY SERIES this season vs Giants, with an overall record of 10-5 against SF (think I added that up correct). Angle here is being the last game of the year, with Giants being motivated to WIN A SERIES against this beatable opponent. Cueto pitched very well at Arizona in his last outing.
One unit plays each reflect my confidence level in today's plays.
Thread: -21.16 units (W/L = 31-39-1 overall = .442 pct)
Didn't get the best number on Toronto, but beat the closing line on SF. Guess it evened out. Couldn't pull the trigger add-on to Toronto before gametime believe they closed at +170 range.
Tuesday Oct.3 - AL Wildcard Game
YANKEES -250
1 unit to win 0.376
First, a quick recap, I'm 7-1 for +6.96 units in my last 8 MLB picks (from Sep.12 forward). Will be doing a recap summary of my baseball record here in a bit...don't know of interest to anyone, but I want to see how my picks break-out...lost some big unit plays along the way. Lately tho, been going with 1 unit plays and ironically winning those.
Wildcard game anything can happen, loser goes home, so its all hands on deck for both teams.
Risk only 1 unit on the favorite to win a fractional 0.376 units (if you risk 100 its for 37), get some action on the game without taking the runline which currently is around -125 for Yanks -1.5 runs.
Logic this game: 1) Yankees roster including pitchers, bullpen, position players are better than Twins.
2) Santana starting for Twins is 0-6 lifetime with 6.38 ERA starting at Yankee Stadium specifically, which I think has to be in his head to some degree. He also has a problem giving up HR bombs. Season record 16-8 with 3.28 ERA and 167 strikeouts.
3) Severino starting for Yanks is 7-2 with 2.28 ERA since the All-Star break, and 14-6 with 2.98 ERA and 230 strikeouts overall on the season....superb!
NL Division Series - Cubs vs. Nationals
SERIES WASHINGTON -120
1.2 units to win 1
Just locked Nationals -120 to defeat the Cubs. Look we could argue tons of angles both sides, main thing for me is I don't trust Cubs bullpen is playoff caliber this year.
Total Thread: -21.16 units (W/L = 31-39-1 overall = .442 pct)
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OVER/UNDERS record in the Thread (included in overall record): Thread: -21.41 units (W/L = 6-17-1 overall = .260 pct)
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PARLAYS record in the Thread (included in overall record): Thread: +5.76 units (W/L = 5-2 = .714 pct) (all 2-teamers)
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1 UNIT PLAYS: W/L = 24-29-1 = .452 pct
2 UNIT PLAYS: W/L = 6-5 = .545 pct)
3 UNIT PLAYS: W/L = 0-2 = .000 pct
4 UNIT PLAYS: +1 parlay risked 1 unit, won 4.10 units (2-team dogs)
5 UNIT PLAYS: W/L = 0-3 = .000 pct
Brutalized myself on the 3 and 5 unit plays,
going 0 for 5 combined
losing 21 units plus juice....just on those 5 plays!
Still will play multiple units but need better selection.
For those following, units mean you can translate whether your plays are 10 or 100 each.
Its easy to just move the decimal point when looking at the units.
UNDER 4 first five innings -105 // 1.05 units to win 1
Here is a game I say will not continue this trend we've seen so far in the Playoffs with any high scoring surprise beginning.
Remember, I already locked in Washington to win the series vs. Cubs with the bottom line Chicago's bullpen isn't to be trusted. I don't care if Dusty wants to mess up.
Both listed pitchers must start. Hendricks and Strasburg are groundball pitchers, although the night air is a little on the warm side tonight in our nation's capital, there is no real wind factor.
Neither team has hit particularly well lifetime against the opposing pitcher. Kris Bryant and Bryce Harper each have a couple knocks. Jason Heyward the veteran and former Brave interestingly has the best career average in tonight's game against the starter, with a .405 average in 37 At Bats....of course some of that came when Heyward was more in his prime. Tonight Heyward bats 7th in the Cubs lineup.
This is my reasoning. Sorry for the long write-up but I play every game I post about, and I'm pumped for this game!!! Gotta love playoff baseball.
NLDS Game 2 - Cubs @ Nationals WSH moneyline -118 // 1.18 units to win 1
Believe Nats get the home split tonight, possibly as a walk-off bottom 9th. First pitch about to be thrown.
NLDS Game 2 - Dbacks @ Dodgers ARIZ first five innings moneyline +130 // 1 unit to win 1.30
Robbie Ray pretty much dominated the Dodgers during the regular season. He is inexperienced in postseason, but you gotta bet on him continuing to have LA's number. Liking the Dbacks got some scoring going last night against Kershaw, so hopefully they continue hitting the lefty starter Rich Hill for Los Angeles.
10/7 results (from Saturday): +1.00 WASHINGTON moneyline -1.00 ARIZ first five innings
Thread: -19.78 units (W/L = 34-40-1 overall = .459 pct), & one pending WSH SERIES win vs Cubs -------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday Oct.11 CLEVELAND moneyline -200
2 units to win 1, **Listed pitchers must start
Kluber's dominance really the past two seasons goes without saying, well until that debacle in Game 2 against the Yankees this series! Call me square (square!) ok but just like Severino did not go 2x crappy starts in a row, nor will the Klu-Bot at home. CC Sabathia for the Yankees certainly re-defined himself this year and is pitching great, but in the twilight of his career he is simply not on Kluber's level.
What about the other players on each team? Yankees have great talent and will be a force for years to come. But they really weren't supposed to be here this year.
I'm mostly focused on Kluber for tonight's game. This year, (ignore April and beginning with May --- April still early getting into form), there were only 2 games in which he gave up more than 3 Earned Runs....and the next outing pitched a great game, no lingering effects....the most recent was on July 29 he gave up 4 ER in 6 innings......Following game Aug.3 was a THREE HIT COMPLETE GAME at HOME against the NEW YORK YANKEES.
Tuesday Oct.17 - NLCS game 3
LA DODGERS +106 // 1 unit to win 1.06
Cubs are a team that love those warm summer days at Wrigley with the wind blowing out. Not the case tonight. And this is not last year's Cubs.
The visitors are gonna want this game more than the Cubs. If LA can go up 3-0 in the series, they will be in the driver's seat to advance. If they let the Cubs back in it tonight, the Cubs have two more games at home and it gets scary for LA. What I think will happen tonight with Dodgers pitching is they will throw the "Asian Persuasion" at the home team, starting with Darvish and then Kenta Maeda before too long. Cubs will probably get some good innings from Kyle "Jimi" Hendricks but then we will turn to the bullpens once again.
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