Hey guys, here is my article for today. BOL on your plays.Tigers on the Prowl vs Royals’ Left-Handed Starter
Kansas City ended Detroit's 4-game winning streak last night thanks to some ninth-inning heroics. Will the Royals build off of their comeback win or can Detroit win the series finale?
Tigers vs Royals
Kansas City took advantage of their best chance to avoid being swept at home by the Tigers—by doing enough against their bottom-ranked bullpen in order to win last night. Tonight’s game features a mismatch between the starting pitchers. In 85 at-bats against the Tigers’ starter Michael Fulmer the Royals are batting .212 with only two extra-base hits. On the contrary, numerous Detroit batters have had success in their career against the Royals’ starter Danny Duffy. Justin Upton is 4-for11 (.364) with 2 home runs. Victor Martinez is 12-for-35 (.343) with 3 home runs. Additionally, Jose Iglesias and Nicholas Castellanos are batting over .300 in 15+ career at-bats against Duffy.
Michael Fulmer (10-6 3.06 ERA) starts for Detroit. He is building off of his success last year as the AL’s Rookie of the Year by maturing into an elite pitcher. His key has been balancing consistency with unpredictability. When Fulmer came into the majors last April, he immediately wanted to throw his best stuff, which for him partly meant to throw hard. His fastball averaged 97 mph in April, but then only 95 mph in the last few months of the season. This season, Fulmer is learning to pace himself like a veteran. His fastball averaged 95 in April and is slowly ticking upwards in the progressing months. While Fulmer’s power is a consistent aspect of his pitching, so is the variety of his pitches, which helps him remain unpredictable to batters. He has neither that one pitch which he favors in order to get ahead of counts nor that one strikeout pitch that he favors when his opponent has two strikes. Contrary to most power pitchers, Fulmer does not generate a lot of strike outs. Instead, he pitches for contact. It is telling that the percentage at which batters make contact with his pitches that he throws inside the strike zone is up from 84% last season to 88% this season, but the percentage at which he is inducing ground balls is up from 49.1% to 50.4%, while his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is down from 3.76 last season to 3.21 this season. Opponents are making more weak contact with Fulmer’s pitches. Fulmer is able to effectively locate his pitches in the lower, less hittable parts of the strike zone. The vertical movement of his four most important pitchers—his four-seam fastball, sinker, change-up and slider— helps him to keep the ball low. His improved ability to consistently locate his pitches well is the main reason why he is allowing home runs at a lower rate this season. Fulmer is difficult to hit not just because of the blazing velocity of all of his pitches, but also because of their movement, location and the way in which he varies their usage. The consistent yet unpredictable Fulmer should look forward to facing a Kansas City lineup that has yet to succeed against him.
Danny Duffy (5-6 3.51 ERA) counters for Kansas City. He is building off of success that he discovered last year, when he dropped his ERA from 4.08 in 2015 to 3.51 in 2016. Duffy’s key has been to become more versatile. He has achieved versatility by developing balance between his pitch usage, which has helped him become more unpredictable to batters. In 2015, he threw his four-seam at a 53% rate, but then dropped this rate to 39% last season and 30% this season. In turn, he is able to rely on a trio of off-speed pitches, the sinker, change and curve. His increased reliance on breaking pitches has led him to induce ground balls at a higher rate. Hitters are making more contact against his pitches this year, but less of it is hard, and balls are remaining on the ground at a higher rate. The strongest example of his newfound success is his changeup. He is throwing it at a higher rate even than last season, but also inducing more whiffs and more ground balls with it. The changeup is Duffy’s biggest weapon against right-handed batters. As a southpaw, Duffy has historically struggled most against right-handed batters. Lefties are hitting .204 in their career against Duffy, while righties are hitting .256. Duffy is throwing his changeup most often against right-handed hitters. This pitch is difficult to hit because of its combination of vertical and horizontal movement, which makes it difficult for hitters to follow, and the way in which it complements Duffy’s fastball with an average 9-mph difference in velocity that constitutes an effective change of pace. Because batters are having increased difficulty in making good contact against this pitch which Duffy is throwing more often and more successfully, the FIP of right-handed batters has dropped from 4.45 in Duffy’s career to 3.83 this season. Duffy is evolving, but partly out of necessity. Since the beginning of this season, the velocity of his pitches has taken a concerning decline, as has his strikeout rate. But Duffy’s talent has been apparent in his ability to vary his pitch selection, develop his off-speed pitches—particularly his changeup— and to develop more marked ground ball tendencies. He’ll look to make the strongest use of his changeup against a Detroit lineup that is stacked with hitters who can hit from the right side of the plate, hit lefties very well, and have already dominated Duffy.
The Verdict
Two factors speak most for Duffy tonight: his strength at home this season and his evolution as a more versatile pitcher. Duffy’s FIP at home this season is a stellar 2.35, compared to 4.65 on the road. I think that this home/away disparity is a fluke because it is not consistent with his career numbers—in his career, there is only a .02 difference in FIP between home/away. The competition that he has faced at home has not so much been subpar as that it has consisted of lineups which do not normally hit southpaws well. The one exception is the White Sox. They do hit lefties well and they are the one team to have really dominated Duffy in Kansas City. They consistently made hard contact with his pitches and tagged him for six runs. Detroit, too, specializes against southpaws; their OPS (on-base plus slugging; average is around .730) against southpaws is .844. Concerning Duffy’s versatility, Detroit has yet to see the (somewhat) new Duffy this season, but the changes which Duffy’s pitching style is adapting collide with some of Detroit’s hitting strengths. Firstly, Duffy is developing more finesse and the Tigers are solid vs finesse. Secondly, Duffy is developing ground ball tendencies and the Tigers are at their best against ground ball pitchers. So even though Duffy is making changes that are improving his overall quality as a pitcher, these changes will be less likely to help him tomorrow against Detroit.
I expect the Tigers to perform well against Duffy, but I don’t think that the Royals’ lineup will be able to support Duffy because Fulmer has been consistent and unpredictable. I think that Detroit will lead this game early on, but I can’t trust Detroit’s bottom-ranked bullpen, which is why I am recommending a first-5 play only.
MLB Pick: Detroit 1H RL (-1/2)
Detroit immediately became a decent-sized favorite last night, which is why I chose the RL. But the juice has come back down, so being more conservative with 1H ML would be just fine as well.
I think describing the starting pitching matchup as a mismatch is a bit of a over exaggeration. Fulmer w bit of a edge but Duffy far from a slouch. Kinda disagree w Duffy home numbers being a fluke either, since 2014 he been very good at Kaufman with exception of '15 where he struggled everywhere (compared to other 3 seasons), it was prior to '14 his numbers were bad but he didn't really become who he is till that season.
Despite what I wrote above I do actually like the play and enjoyed reading. Gl
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