Here is the analytical meat of my article today. BOL today!
Two Pitchers in Good Form Duel When the Rockies Meet the Mets in Citi Field
Rockies vs Mets
Look for a slow start from Colorado's bats when they face Mets’ starter Jacob DeGrom in Citi Field, New York. Left-handed batters have a slight edge in that stadium. But the Rockies will count on the following lefties: Carlos Gonzalez, who has yet to be Carlos Gonzalez, as his .221 BA in the first half of the season is .66 below his career average. Furthermore, Gerardo Parra and Charlie Blackmon are a combined 1/23 in their career against DeGrom. Righties haven’t fared much better. Current Colorado batters are batting just .120 in 75 career AB’s vs DeGrom. History is on DeGrom’s side.
The Mets slumped into the All Star Break, dropping five of six. But this slump is no fault of left-handed batter Jay Bruce, who finished 7-for-17 with 3 home runs in his last four games. His BA (.266) is currently at the second-highest point in his career and his slugging (.538) is at its highest, which indicates an impressive improvement from somebody who played his home gams in Cincinnati, which is very much a hitters-friendly ballpark. Bruce, in his career, is 2-for-3 with a double and a home run against the Rockies’ starter Jon Gray.
The Pitchers
Jon Gray (2-0 3.75 ERA) spent most of the season on the DL and has been sorely missed by the Rockies. But he has returned strong, allowing an ERA of just over 3 in his last two starts against Arizona in Chase Field and the Reds in Coors Field. The main reason for his strong return is the surprise that he has presented opposing batters in the form of a tight slider. His slider is very unique because of its vertical movement. It attacks the plate like a fastball, until it eludes the opponent’s swing by suddenly dropping. His slider complements his fastball, because batters cannot be sure which pitch is which, until it’s too late. He is throwing this slider at a vastly higher rate than before his injury and he is commanding it well, indicating his level of comfort with it. Batters are swinging and missing or hitting his slider into a weak ground ball. The Diamondbacks hit just .143 and the Reds only .200 against his slider. They struck out a combined 15 times, while Gray had struck only 8 batters in his first two starts of the season. The Reds and Diamondbacks were two victims of Gray’s career-long tendency to do well at this time of the year. Historically speaking, Gray needs time in the season to develop his breaking pitches. In 2016, just like in this year, he initially underachieved because he had to rely on his fastball. Gray’s career FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) drops from 4.43 in March/April to 3.20 FIP in July and his fastball usage drops over 10%. I would like to see him develop his curveball, which played a meaningful role in his breakthrough last year. But with a lethal fastball-slider combination, he should pitch well against a Mets lineup that, with the exception of Bruce, has mostly been slumping.
Jacob DeGrom (9-3 3.65 ERA) counters for a desperate Mets squad. He had a roller coaster-like first half of the season. The big down month was in May, which is why his ERA is currently still .74 higher than his career average. In May, DeGrom's command was worrisome. His BB/9 rate spiked up to 4.46, which is 2.10 higher than his career average. Normally, DeGrom is able to rely on a variety of pitches. But in May, he could not command his breaking pitches effectively. He tried to throw them, but could not throw them consistently for strikes. Because he therefore had to rely extensively on his fastball, he became more predictable. Since opposing batters could rather foresee that a fastball would come—especially when DeGrom really needed to throw a good pitch—he had to be extra careful with his location and was consequently prone to missing corners of the plate. But after May, things changed: the percentage of his fastball usage dropped from nearly 50% or half of his pitches to 33% in June. The rest of DeGrom’s pitching arsenal opened up to him and he threw his sinker, change, and curve more frequently. His FIP dropped from 4.22 in May to 2.40, 3.40 and 0.15 in his last three starts in June. In his last start in St. Louis, he was a bit loose with his command when no runners were on. He threw two balls down the heart of the plate and gave up four home runs overall, all solo shots, a total of four runs in seven innings. But look for DeGrom to bounce back in one of his favorite months historically. His career FIP is 2.91 in July as last year, like this year, he gets the time to develop his off-speed pitches. Also note that DeGrom’s career FIP drops from 3.62 away to 2.56 at home.
The Verdict
The Mets have history on their side in a power-laden versatile pitcher, DeGrom, who is historically strong both in July and against the current Colorado batters. The Rockies are at their worst against power pitchers and pitchers who, like DeGrom, induce a mixture of fly balls and ground balls. Now that DeGrom is rediscovering his off-speed pitches, look for opposing batters to continue to struggle to make hard contact against him. DeGrom will be more careful this time around after giving up a career-high four home runs against the Cardinals. He also has the advantage of playing in Citi Field. Colorado’s bats have been hot, but a lot of that production came against subpar White Sox pitching in Coors Field. The Mets, on the other hand, haven’t exactly been productive. Jon Gray is no DeGrom, but he has been pitching effectively even against baseball’s better lineups and even without having rediscovered his curveball. Since Gray has the support of an effective slider, the Mets will have to wait another night to find productivity from their lineup. I don’t trust either bullpen or either lineup, but I like two well-rested and in-form starters to do well.
Also beware of Faria. Six straight quality starts, been talking with a friend about this streak ending. Angels struggle overall vs slider but hit Liriano's slider well which, like Faria's slider, lacks the normal depth of a slider.
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Analytical meat of my article today
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