[KVB]

I’ve mentioned that it’s not the information available, we all have it, but it’s how you use the information. So now let’s get a little more specific with pitching stats.

Everywhere you look you see the San Diego starter, Chacin with a 5.10 ERA compared to Chicago’s Montgomery who shows a 2.56 ERA. We’re seeing shitty versus good here.

We all have this information, but let’s look a little closer. If you go back to the early May you’ll see that Chacin’s ERA has been improving since the beginning of the season. If we take out the early season numbers, which skew everyone’s stats, and the one outlier game, we see a more current ERA of about 3.18. Doing just these two things in MLB will improve your pitcher handicapping. I could start another thread about removing outlier results. The point is to use relevant information and this is one way to do it.

For those WHIP guys, I have 1.09 for Chacin…not too shabby, but not totally predictive by itself.

What about Chicago’s Montgomery? His 2.56 ERA seems solid. But he’s only started twice this season…he’s a relief pitcher. His ERA is a computed hybrid, accounting for relief pitches and starting pitches together.

This is a bad way to approach sports betting with the pitchers…there is no reliability.

Montgomery’s starting pitches reveal an ERA more like 3.99, a 1.44 WHIP for the WHIP guys.

So let’s talk WHIP and ERA. The ERA for Montgomery isn’t bad, but he the WHIP suffers. Why? Let’s look at his starts…

Against Colorado, he struck out 5 guys in 4 innings but gave up 3 hits and 2 earned runs. Against the Mets, he struck out 4 guys in 5 innings with 6 hits and 3 runs, two of them earned.

The ERA is OK but the WHIP is below average because he tries to strike batters out, walking very few. Because of this, he strikes them out but also gets hit.

This also presents evidence to me that the Cubs’ outfield is doing alright, but when the opponent does get on base, the lagging in-field lets them get to home. This hurts the WHIP while keeping the ERA somewhat intact. Something to watch as more starts are added to the evidence.

Recent performance isn’t the tell all, but it has to be weighted over just a season average, in all sports. The team records over the last 20 games shows each team at 10-10, yet it’s a +180 line.

The Cubs are the Champs, the Padres are lowly, and few will accept such a “terrible” bet as nearly +200 against the Cubs.

But we process numbers to uncover value. The above circumstances along with the fact that few will take the Padres because of fear of losing a single game help to create this value over the marketplace. The goal is to win over time by exploiting this type of value.

Of course there is more to handicapping than pitching, but these are part of the reasons why I took San Diego +180 over Chicago.

I hope this gets some of you thinking and researching little deeper when you handicap.

Good Luck

[MaddyMax]

only thing that should matter is that chacin is decent only at petco. on the road he is horrible....horrible whip, horrible era, horrible opponent ba, horrible fip, horrible xfip, horrible strand rate.

montgomery is not good as his era indicates but sd is not good in drawing walks to take advantage of mont's control issues. cubs should get this done by more than a few runs.

[Waterstpub87]

Was on SD already. Lets get it.

[Chi_archie]

so are you just taking first five innings?

or do bullpens not matter in this game?

[jjgold]

KVB all that stuff means nothing

I hope you guess right tonight

[KVB]

so are you just taking first five innings?

or do bullpens not matter in this game?

I was just pointing out aspects of some pitching stats that are well known and used by everybody and how they can be misleading or viewed differently. I didn't talk about bullpens or much about defense or offense for that matter.

I didn't even go into stats that worked against the Padres, like some split stats.

The value was there in the overall picture for me as well.

...The above circumstances along with the fact that few will take the Padres because of fear of losing a single game help to create this value over the marketplace. The goal is to win over time by exploiting this type of value.

Of course there is more to handicapping than pitching, but these are part of the reasons why I took San Diego +180 over Chicago...

Good Luck

[KVB]

KVB all that stuff means nothing

I hope you guess right tonight

I don't need to "guess" right tonight. At these odds, I can get some bets wrong as well and still profit.

That's why I took San Diego +180 over Chicago.

It was the same type of bet as the Angels over the Yankees, value was created.

Now let's see if they cash.

[RangeFinder]

KVB is only trying to show one easy way of getting value and beating the books long term. The fault of most people is they want good, quick results. Beating sports betting is a grind, always will be. It will never be get rich quick.

Excellent post, K.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Left

[CappinTerp]

I was just pointing out aspects of some pitching stats that are well known and used by everybody and how they can be misleading or viewed differently. I didn't talk about bullpens or much about defense or offense for that matter.

I didn't even go into stats that worked against the Padres, like some split stats.

The value was there in the overall picture for me as well.



Good Luck

The most important aspect , is how one views/interprets the data.........For example...you get 10 of the worlds best economist , and let them look at the numbers for a few days. When they come out with the results....5 are bullish and 5 are bearish!!...................all looking at the same data!!!

[Shute]

KVB, gettum next time. Shute

[Conqueror]

Excellent insight!

[RangeFinder]

The most important aspect , is how one views/interprets the data.........For example...you get 10 of the worlds best economist , and let them look at the numbers for a few days. When they come out with the results....5 are bullish and 5 are bearish!!...................all looking at the same data!!!

All 10 need to find a new line of work, lol

[KVB]

The most important aspect , is how one views/interprets the data.........For example...you get 10 of the worlds best economist , and let them look at the numbers for a few days. When they come out with the results....5 are bullish and 5 are bearish!!...................all looking at the same data!!!

In sports, we can test the data for a certain level of confidence in profitability.

There are as many ways to handicap as there are handicappers.

[KVB]

...I took San Diego +180 over Chicago...

[KVB]

KVB, gettum next time. Shute

Excellent insight!

A push in the 8th was to no avail.


The concept of value paid off today with the Angels anyway. I almost turned that Angels analysis into a thread, but went with this game instead.

This MLB season is full of misleading stats probably designed to stretch the marketplace.

For just one example, the listed ERA for Pineda is 3.71.

But if you use more meaningful data to what we can expect him to do today (predictive data for this environment), his ERA turns out to be a little more like 4.24.

Further, I get a WHIP of 1.41, which is also out of whack and high for even the Yankees.

There is value in this game on the Angels, and win or lose, the high odds make it worth the bet in the long haul. There could be a reason the line is so high and Yankee bettors are getting, by far, the short end of the stick, even with a win...

Of course I didn't just quote that to show a winner for the winning, it's to show the potential value of value, even if only within a single day.

Rangefinder is right about the grind, for the most part, these posts I make are more about the marathon and less about the spot play sprint.

[RangeFinder]

K is on the right track to profits