1. 06-12-17 04:30 PM #1
    jamesjMidwest
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    JJ MLB picks

    Hello forum members. I have been lurking for awhile and have been formulating an MLB system that is based on James Jasper's system detailed in his book ("Sports Betting", 1980). It is a bit outdated on relievers but it seems to be based on solid information otherwise. I have made many changes to the system during the first two months but was in Las Vegas last week and had pretty good success with the system. A couple of general things about my process:

    1. My system focuses primarily on pitching. Hitting is too difficult to handicap, unless a major player is out.

    2. I pretty much will not lay -1.25 or more. There is too much randomness in the game. In general the books screw you when you get PAID on big favs, not when you lose.

    3. I tend to avoid big dogs when my system prediction line is above +1.30 (I want a reasonable chance to win the game.)

    4. I am generally not an under bettor (although I took one today.) MLB bullpens are so crappy these days that any total is in jeopardy of going over in just about ANY game.

    5. I try to find other angles to support system picks - I don't blindly play what the system tells me.

    For tonight my plays are:

    1/2 unit TEX @ HOU UNDER 8' -1.05
    1/2 unit LAA +1.35 VS NYY
    1/2 unit SD -1.18 VS CIN

    I realize HOU has been a scoring machine, but these are two reasonable-quality pitchers, and both bullpens are pretty solid. I realize the wind is projected to be blowing out, but in a big stadium with a retractable roof the wind is usually not as big a factor.

    Tanaka has been very unreliable this year for some reason. Meyer is a hard thrower and should have a chance to keep the NYY bats at least somewhat at bay. Even with Trout still out, his replacement (Eric Young Jr.) has been doing pretty well. Also note that NYY had to travel to the west coast last night so who knows how sharp they'll be. I like the premium with LAA at home.

    Perdomo looked crappy last time out vs ARZ but he has been trying to finesse too much and it sounds like his pitching coach is pushing him to be more aggressive. I guess this could backfire, but against Arroyo who is 40 and is giving up runs like crazy, the line seems pretty cheap. Also, CIN closer Iglesias threw 33 pitches in loss to LAD last out and may not be available if it is tight late in the game.

    Good luck!

    JJ
    Last edited by jamesjMidwest; 06-12-17 at 04:38 PM.
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  2. 06-13-17 11:06 AM #2
    jamesjMidwest
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    Tuesday, June 13, 2017

    A reasonable profit last night on a short card.

    PIT -1.09 VS COL (system says PIT -1.38)

    I got an exceptionally good number on this one (saw -1.18 at several other books.) Cole has not been as good as he’s been in previous seasons, but he has the potential to get in a good groove here. Chatwood has been hot getting 3 wins in a row but I feel the Pirates have the edge both with the starter and the bullpen.

    CLE +1.48 VS LAD (system says CLE +1.14)

    Going against Kershaw is somewhat dicey, but the number is too big to pass up with him on the road and Bauer on the mound against him. Bauer is a strikeout machine, so this one should be decided by the bullpens and I give an edge to the Indians there.

    NYM +1.31 VS CHC (system says NYM -1.00)

    For the most part I am going with my system here – it says this game should be a tossup. Starting pitching seems to have come around for the Mets; Wheeler has had a couple of sparkling outings and even up against Lester, who has appeared pedestrian his last few games, I like the number at home.

    CHW +1.04 VS BAL (system says CHW -1.32)

    BAL is in a tailspin losing five in a row of late; CHW seem to have found their bats. Holland has had bad outings his last two out but he pitches well against the O’s and is due to right the ship. Asher has pitched well in relief but has gotten knocked around as a starter. I also give an edge to the Sox’s bullpen.

    SD +1.03 VS CIN (system says SD -1.56)

    I’m not a big fan of the Padres – they have not been a strong team. However, I think Richard pitching for them, despite his last outing vs. the Diamondbacks, should keep them in the game. He was pitching well at ARZ but made a mistake and started the bombardment on the team (understandable in that ballpark.) Feldman has been pitching well as a starter but I feel the starting pitching is a tossup, and I give an edge to the Padre’s bullpen.

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 1- 1 ( -.15)
    Totals = 1- 0 ( +.85)

    Overall = 2- 1 (+.70)
    Last edited by jamesjMidwest; 06-13-17 at 12:23 PM.
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  3. 06-14-17 09:41 AM #3
    jamesjMidwest
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    Wednesday, June 14, 2017

    PHI +1.22 VS BOS (system projection PHI -1.02)

    I’m not a Hellickson fan, but he usually works his way out of bad streaks like he is having right now. Plus, he is probably going to be traded to a contender before the deadline, so he (and his team) wants to “up his stock” – we should see his A game tonight. Johnson’s a rookie who had one good outing (shut out SEA) and two not-so-good ones (7 ER in 9.1 IP). BOS (and the NYY) are always overrated on the money line, and while Philly is not a good team, they should have enough to make this competitive at home.

    CHW +1.15 VS BAL (system projection CHW -1.03)

    O’s still in a funk – they’ve fallen to 4th in their division now, after leading it less than a month ago. Bundy is probably the better starter but not by much. Sox bullpen is stronger than BAL (only worse bullpen in the majors is MIL) and Orioles are missing 1B Chris Davis which takes a lot of power out of their lineup. I look for their woes to continue.

    SEA +1.26 @ MIN (system projection SEA -1.06)

    Mariners got blown out yesterday and the Twins are starting their number one pitcher versus a rookie. How could anyone go against the Twinkies in this situation? Call me crazy (and I just may be) but Gaviglio has looked good in almost all his starts this year (only bad outing was @ COL – who DOESN’T struggle at Coors Field?) Santana tends to pitch a good one (he shut out the Angels last time out) them come back with a dud. If it’s tight late in the game, look for the MIN bullpen to blow it – they are not very good.

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 4- 3 ( + .99)
    Totals = 1- 0 ( + .85)

    Overall = 5- 3 (+1.84)
    Last edited by jamesjMidwest; 06-14-17 at 09:48 AM.
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  4. 06-15-17 12:19 PM #4
    jamesjMidwest
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    Thursday, June 15, 2017

    Yesterday was a loser, but not by much. The big disappointment was Hellickson, who absolutely stunk it up. Also, if the White Sox don’t blow a big lead it would have at least been a winning day.

    CHW +1.00 VS BAL (System projection = CHW -1.57)

    I know, how many times can I dip from this well. I just think there is something wrong with Tillman. He has gotten shellacked in June. Holmberg is no superstar but if the bullpen doesn’t melt down like they did last night, CHW has a good chance to win this one.

    BOS @ PHI OVER 8 +1.00 (System projection = 9.8 runs)

    Sale tends to slide off around the all-star break and beyond. I would think he’ll still win this one but I could see him giving up a few, and the Sox putting up 6 or 7 runs on their own against Pivetta. Also, wind is projected to be blowing out to left at a strong clip.

    NYM +1.04 VS WAS (System projection = NYM -1.18)

    Don’t get me wrong, Gio is a good pitcher, just not that much better than the G-man. NYM are at home and have Cespedes back. Even with a heavily-used bullpen I like the Mets here.

    OAK +1.06 VS NYY (System projection = OAK -1.33)

    Going against the Yanks is perilous, but that’s a pretty big swing from projection to actual line. Gray has been shaky lately, but seems to favor “home cooking” so I look for him to keep this competitive. Just tread lightly around Judge and Sanchez and he should be ok.

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 5- 5 ( - 1.01)
    Totals = 1- 0 ( + .85)

    Overall = 6- 5 ( - .16)
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  5. 06-16-17 09:01 AM #5
    jamesjMidwest
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    Friday, June 16, 2017

    Unbelievable Pivetta performance last night. Red Sox were suckers at the plate, looking for off-speed pitches but getting fastballs. Hats off though, because a 1-0 shutout game in today’s pitching environment is incredibly rare.

    Also, I was disappointed in the Mets as Gsellman got lit up like a Christmas tree. Still managed to eke out a (very) small profit yesterday.

    STL -1.18 @ BAL (System projection: STL -1.37)

    Martinez pitched a gem the last time out (although it was against Philly) and his losses this year have been mainly due to lack of run production by the offense. Gausman is having a terrible season with a glimmer of a good game here and there that were reminiscent of his late-season performances last year. BAL bullpen is in disarray with O’Day hurt. I have gone against the orange birds several times this year and it has paid off…I am doing it again, even with them at home.

    PIT +1.05 VS CHC (System projection: PIT-1.15)

    The Cubbies have been very average this season, with their vaunted power hitters being sporadic and their starting pitching dropping way off from last year. The NL central in general is weak, and PIT is no power house, but I think Williams is better than Butler. Even though the Cubs have a better bullpen, I’m taking the home team here.

    SD +1.50 @ MIL (System projection: SD +1.02)

    Diaz was in the Brewer’s organization last year but got picked up by the Padres, who think pretty highly of him. He’s been in the bullpen but recently became a starter. I don’t see him going more than 4-5 innings but the SD bullpen is better than average, and the MIL bullpen is one of the worst in the league. Guerra looked strong last time out, but I’m banking on the game being close late and the Brew Crew blowing it.

    OAK +1.15 VS NYY (System projection: OAK -1.11)

    The line looks like a Yankee bettor trap to me. I know that counting on the Yanks to drop two in a row is probably not a good betting strategy this year, but I feel the situation warrants it. My numbers say Severino is slightly better than Manaea, and the Yankees have a little better bullpen, but not by much. Given it’s at home, and the Bronx Bombers are amid a long west coast road trip, I can see taking OAK at home at this price.

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 7- 6 ( + .05)
    Totals = 1- 1 ( - .15)

    Overall = 8- 7 ( - .10)
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  6. 06-17-17 08:38 AM #6
    jamesjMidwest
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    Saturday, June 17, 2017


    Essentially broke even yesterday - I lost 14-cents overall. Brewers 9th inning meltdown was my downfall.

    No time for detailed analysis today.

    BAL – 1.00 VS STL (System projection: BAL -1.19)

    OAK +1.20 VS NYY (System projection: OAK -1.03)

    PHI +1.08 VS ARZ (System projection: PHI -1.22)

    TAM -1.07 @ DET (System projection: TAM -1.28)

    SD +1.45 @ MIL (System projection: SD -1.08)

    ATL -1.15 vs MIA (System projection: ATL -1.44)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 9- 8 ( + .05)
    Totals = 1- 1 ( - .15)

    Overall = 10- 9 ( - .10)
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  7. 06-18-17 11:19 AM #7
    jamesjMidwest
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    Sunday, June 18, 2017

    Nice 5-1 day yesterday that included two tight wins in extras by the Padres and the Braves. I cashed some pretty hefty tickets yesterday.

    This is last day of my first week posting here. Let's see if we can close it out in good form.

    PIT -1.16 VS CHC (System projection: PIT -1.34)

    BAL +1.04 VS STL (System projection: BAL -1.30)

    ATL -1.05 VS MIA (System projection: ATL -1.21)

    SD +1.40 @ MIL (System projection: SD -1.09)

    MIN +1.34 VS CLE (System projection: MIN -1.01)

    LAA -1.01 VS KC (System projection: LAA -1.23)

    Good luck fellas.

    Jake

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 14 - 9 (+ 4 .50)
    Totals = 1- 1 ( - . 15)

    Overall = 15 -10 (+ 4 .35)
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  8. 06-19-17 04:47 PM #8
    jamesjMidwest
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    Monday, June 19, 2017


    Lousy 2-4 yesterday. Still, wrap up the week with an overall profit.

    I bet these earlier so lines may have changed.

    ATL +1.30 VS SF (System projection: ATL -1.05)
    KC -1.08 VS BOS (System projection: KC-1.34)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 16 -13 (+ 2.50)
    Totals = 1- 1 ( - .15)

    Overall = 17 -14 (+ 2.35)
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  9. 06-20-17 10:40 AM #9
    jamesjMidwest
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    Tuesday, June 20, 2017

    Nice 2-0 yesterday with the Royals being a pretty big (+1.30) dog.

    BAL +1.33 VS CLE (System projection: BAL +1.13)

    OAK +1.02 VS TEX (System projection: OAK -1.48)


    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 16 -13 (+ 4.77)
    Totals = 1- 1 ( - .15)

    Overall = 17 -14 (+ 4.62)
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  10. 06-20-17 06:33 PM #10
    jamesjMidwest
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    Good god Tillman is pitching like he just had an arm replacement. It's one thing to get hit some early but this guy can't even find the plate (he has thrown 3 wild pitchers that were at LEAST 5 feet from the catcher). Bad call on my part.
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  11. 06-21-17 10:31 AM #11
    jamesjMidwest
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    Wednesday, June 21, 2017

    I have a good friend who always says, "It's better to be lucky than good." Got some of that yesterday, as BAL somehow managed to come back after an incredibly shaky start by Tillman. Ended up with a small profit for the day.

    KC +1.32 VS BOS (System projection: KC -1.08)
    SD +1.70 @ CHC (System projection: SD +1.13)
    PHI +1.15 VS STL (System projection: PHI -1.09)
    TOR -1.05 @ TEX (System projection: TOR -1.32)
    PIT +1.19 @ MIL (System projection: PIT -1.05)
    ARZ +1.33 @ COL (System projection: ARZ +1.14)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 17 -14 (+ 5.10)
    Totals = 1- 1 ( - .15)

    Overall = 18 -15 (+ 4.95)
    Last edited by jamesjMidwest; 06-21-17 at 07:45 PM.
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  12. 06-22-17 10:00 AM #12
    jamesjMidwest
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    Thursday, June 22, 2017

    Two big dogs come in early. 4-2 overall nets a very nice day.

    PHI +1.30 VS STL (System projection: PHI -1.03)
    MIN +1.07 VS CHW (System projection: MIN -1.08)
    MIA +1.17 VS CHC (System projection: MIA -1.04)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 21 -16 (+ 8.40)
    Totals = 1- 1 ( - .15)

    Overall = 22 -17 (+ 8.25)
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  13. 06-22-17 11:16 AM #13
    crackerjack
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    Good luck today. Takes balls to back Phillies vs Martinez, one of the hottest pitchers in the league right now
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  14. 06-22-17 01:28 PM #14
    crackerjack
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    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    Good luck today. Takes balls to back Phillies vs Martinez, one of the hottest pitchers in the league right now
    Good call this far. Nola is pitching well...
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  15. 06-23-17 11:25 AM #15
    jamesjMidwest
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    Friday, June 23, 2017

    Won a nice dog on Philly but lost the other two for a small losing day.

    NYY -1.14 VS TEX (System projection: NYY -1.36)
    MIA +1.13 VS CHC (System projection: MIA -1.04)
    SD +1.05 VS DET (System projection: SD -1.51)
    PHI @ ARZ over 10 -1.15 (System projection: 13.8 runs)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 21 -16 (+ 7.70)
    Totals = 1- 1 ( - .15)

    Overall = 22 -17 (+ 7.55)
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  16. 06-24-17 10:33 AM #16
    jamesjMidwest
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    Saturday, June 24, 2017

    Went 3-1 yesterday. I do not seem to have a handle on totals so I might leave them alone the rest of the season.

    Not much value out there today, according to my system.

    LAA +1.57 @ BOS (System projection: LAA +1.14)
    SD -1.09 VS DET (System projection: SD -1.92)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 24 -16 (+ 9.76)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 25 -18 (+ 8.61)
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  17. 06-25-17 08:47 AM #17
    jamesjMidwest
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    Sunday, June 25, 2017

    On a nice run which WILL NOT last. Due for a crash any time now, but I’ll take the winnings while they last.

    CIN +1.35 @ WAS (System projection: CIN +1.14)
    CHW +1.17 VS OAK (System projection: CHW -1.06)
    COL +1.45 @ LAD (System projection: COL +1.11)
    SD +1.06 VS DET (System projection: SD -1.57)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 26 -16 (+ 12.25)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 27 -18 (+ 11.10)
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  18. 06-26-17 12:04 PM #18
    jamesjMidwest
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    Monday, June 26, 2017

    Damn! Defeat from the jaws of victory. COL leads by 5 but gets over run by COL, SD leads 5-3 late but gets beat, CHW leads but gives up runs late to lose. Lost but I can live with it after a good run.

    Only one play today.

    CHW +1.40 VS NYY (System projection: CHW -1.00)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 27 -19 (+10.60)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 28 -21 (+ 9.45)
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  19. 06-27-17 10:51 AM #19
    jamesjMidwest
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    Tuesday, June 27, 2017

    On a mild losing streak but have time before the all-star break to rebound.

    BIG card today. Good luck to me.

    PIT -1.05 VS TAM (System projection: PIT -1.20)
    CIN -1.25 VS MIL (System projection: CIN -1.41)
    CHW +1.23 VS NYY (System projection: CHW -1.10)
    OAK +1.50 @ HOU (System projection: OAK +1.18)
    ARZ +1.07 VS STL (System projection: ARZ -1.16)
    SD -1.17 VS ATL (System projection: SD -1.60)
    SF +1.19 VS COL (System projection: SF +1.02)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 27 -20 (+ 9.60)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 28 -22 (+ 8.45)
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  20. 06-28-17 11:08 AM #20
    jamesjMidwest
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    Wednesday, June 28, 2017

    Went a very good 5-2 (especially with mostly dogs, some of them big) and a strong profitable day (+3.8 units.)

    I couldn’t find much value today…only two plays.

    SF +1.10 vs COL (System projection: SF -1.06)
    LAA +1.09 vs LAD (System projection: LAA -1.17)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 32 -22 (+ 13.40)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 33 -24 (+ 12.25)
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  21. 06-29-17 09:16 AM #21
    jamesjMidwest
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    Thursday, June 29, 2017

    Aced it yesterday 2-0 and on a very good run. You need these to offset the losing streaks which WILL happen.

    ARZ -1.20 VS STL (System projection: ARZ -1.47)
    PIT +1.08 VS TAM (System projection: PIT -1.10)
    CIN -1.05 VS MIL (System projection: CIN -1.21)
    CHW +1.30 VS NYY (System projection: CHW +1.15)
    SD -1.15 VS ATL (System projection: SD -1.68)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 34 -22 (+ 15.60)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 35 -24 (+ 14.45)
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  22. 07-01-17 11:03 AM #22
    jamesjMidwest
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    Saturday, July 1, 2017

    Apparently didn’t post yesterday, but went 4-0 (lucky win on CHW). Travel day – I’m in Las Vegas for a few days!

    CHW +1.11 VS TEX (System projection: CHW -1.36)
    PHI +1.50 @ NYM (System projection: PHI +1.15)
    DET +1.14 VS CLE (game 1; System projection: DET -1.01)
    NYY +1.16 @ HOU (System projection: NYY -1.01)
    STL -1.16 VS WAS (System projection: STL -1.31
    LAA -1.10 VS SEA (System projection: LAA -1.46)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 41 -24 (+ 20.61)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 38 -26 (+ 20.46)
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  23. 07-02-17 11:03 AM #23
    jamesjMidwest
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    Sunday, July 2, 2017

    Split 3-3 yesterday for a very small loss.

    DET VS CLE 1.10
    CIN VS CHC 1.35
    PHI @ NYM 1.37
    BAL VS TAM -1.17
    PIT VS SF 1.20
    CHW VS TEX -1.05
    LAA VS SEA 1.40
    SD VS LAD 1.72

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 44 -27 (+ 20.52)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 45 -29 (+ 19.37)
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  24. 07-03-17 11:41 AM #24
    jamesjMidwest
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    Monday, July 3, 2017

    Split 4-4 yesterday but made a little due to the big SD dog winner.

    PHI -1.16 VS PIT (System projection: PHI -1.39)
    KC +1.30 @ SEA (System projection: KC +1.02)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 48 -31 (+ 21.42)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 49 -33 (+ 20.27)
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  25. 07-04-17 09:52 AM #25
    jamesjMidwest
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    Tuesday, July 4, 2017

    Small card yesterday but a 2-0 day and a nice profit.

    NYY +1.01 VS TOR (System projection: NYY -1.17)
    LAA +1.09 @ MIN (System projection: LAA -1.11)
    STL -1.23 VS MIA (System projection: STL -1.44)
    ATL +1.45 VS HOU (System projection: ATL -1.10)
    CIN +1.41 @ COL (System projection: CIN -1.00)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 50 -31 (+ 23.58)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 51 -33 (+ 22.43)
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  26. 07-05-17 11:41 AM #26
    jamesjMidwest
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    Wednesday, July 5, 2017

    Ouch. I was due for a crash, having gone last 7 days with two small losses and five wins. I was due for a clunker and I got it.

    Some big doggies today. Some risk but lots of reward.

    CHW +1.70 @ OAK (System projection: CHW +1.23)
    NYM -1.10 @ WAS (System projection: NYM -1.32)
    SD +2.20 @ CLE (System projection: SD +1.19)
    ATL +1.22 VS HOU (System projection: ATL -1.05)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 51 -35 (+ 21.99)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 52 -37 (+ 20.84)
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  27. 07-06-17 10:04 AM #27
    jamesjMidwest
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    Thursday, July 6, 2017

    CHW loss yesterday was total crap. It was obvious the umpire had a tight strike zone…Pelfrey kept nibbling and the OAK batters were taking. CHW batters swung at everything Gray threw up there and got themselves out. If they would have taken a few pitches they could have been in the game. They did that later in the game and somewhat got back in it, but it was too far gone.

    Very small profit due to SD big +2.20 win.

    DET -1.14 VS SF (System projection: DET -1.37)
    PHI + 1.17 VS PIT (System projection: PHI -1.18)
    ATL +1.51 @ WAS (System projection: ATL +1.17)
    SD +1.80 @ CLE (System projection: SD -1.11)
    BAL +1.28 @ MIN (System projection: BAL +1.08)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 52 -37 (+ 22.19)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 53 -39 (+ 21.04)
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  28. 07-07-17 10:51 AM #28
    jamesjMidwest
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    Friday, July 7, 2017

    I did not count the DET game a win as Cueto did not start for SF. I always assume listed pitchers.

    PIT +1.30 @ CHC (System projection: PIT -1.14)
    SD +1.15 @ SD (System projection: SD -1.01)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 53 -40 (+ 20.07)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 54 -42 (+ 19.55)
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  29. 07-08-17 12:18 PM #29
    jamesjMidwest
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    Saturday, July 8, 2017

    PIT had many chances to pounce on Butler, including base runners over and over, but they couldn’t score anything. The CHC finally broke through on them. I did win the SD/PHI game for a small profit.

    SD +1.42 @ PHI (System projection: SD +1.25)
    KC +1.83 @ LAD (System projection: KC +1.25)
    LAA +1.38 @ TEX (System projection: LAA +1.04)
    CIN +1.32 @ ARZ (System projection: CIN -1.23)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 54 -41 (+ 20.22)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 55 -43 (+ 20.07)
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  30. 07-09-17 09:00 AM #30
    jamesjMidwest
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    Sunday, July 9, 2017

    I went 2-2 yesterday but because they were big dogs I made a moderate profit for the day.

    TAM -1.05 VS BOS (System projection: TAM -1.26)
    BAL +1.14 @ MIN (System projection: BAL +1.00)
    CHW +1.13 @ COL (System projection: CHW -1.18)
    CIN +1.45 @ ARZ (System projection: CIN +1.14)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 56 -43 (+ 20.96)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 57 -45 (+ 19.81)
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  31. 07-09-17 10:07 AM #31
    Rambone
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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesjMidwest View Post
    Sunday, July 9, 2017

    I went 2-2 yesterday but because they were big dogs I made a moderate profit for the day.

    TAM -1.05 VS BOS (System projection: TAM -1.26)
    BAL +1.14 @ MIN (System projection: BAL +1.00)
    CHW +1.13 @ COL (System projection: CHW -1.18)
    CIN +1.45 @ ARZ (System projection: CIN +1.14)

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 56 -43 (+ 20.96)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 57 -45 (+ 19.81)
    JJ, when you say (system projection: TAM, BAL, CHW, and CIN) are those your play for Sunday 7/9? Just trying to understand your dictation and your system.

    Thanks
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  32. 07-09-17 11:55 AM #32
    jamesjMidwest
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rambone View Post
    JJ, when you say (system projection: TAM, BAL, CHW, and CIN) are those your play for Sunday 7/9? Just trying to understand your dictation and your system.

    Thanks
    My play is the first team listed in each line...for today they are TAM, BAL, CHW and CIN. The money line I give is what I got the game at. The system projection is what my computer THINKS the money line should be. So, I look for differences between the actual money line and my projected money line. The books have TAM at -1.05 but my system thinks they should be a bigger favorite at -1.26, so I am getting value on TAM at -1.05.

    JJ
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  33. 07-09-17 02:31 PM #33
    Rambone
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    Awesome and thanks for the clarification and sharing your picks.
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  34. 07-09-17 06:27 PM #34
    jamesjMidwest
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    Monday, July 10, 2017

    Great finish to the pre-all-star break with 3-1 including a big win on the Reds +1.45.

    Happy break everyone. See you Friday.

    Since 6/12/17:

    Money Line plays = 59 -44 (+ 23.50)
    Totals = 1- 2 ( - 1.15)

    Overall = 60 -46 (+ 22.36)
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  35. 07-11-17 12:06 PM #35
    jamesjMidwest
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    During this down time I will be posting some articles I wrote 15+ years ago about gambling in general. I think they are filled with very good advice.

    WHAT'S IT TAKE TO "BREAK EVEN?"

    I have a circle of fairly intelligent friends, but sometimes I feel like
    they are so stupid they couldn't empty water out of a cowboy boot if the
    instructions were printed on the heel. I get this argument about once a
    month:

    "You have to hit 60% just to break even."

    FOOLS! Of course, their position is that you have to do 10% better than 50%
    just to cover the "juice." Sometimes the smarter ones will try to argue
    that you need 55% to break even, since you only pay juice on the losing
    side, but not the winning side. This is closer, but still not correct.

    Here's how I spell it out for them...the math isn't difficult, but I make
    it as simple as possible:

    Let's assume you wager 21 games (I'm assuming these are -110 games, like
    football or basketball, where you lay 110 to make 100.) Of these 21 games,
    lets say you win 11 and lose 10, at $100 per game. What is your net profit
    at this point?

    11 x $100 = $1,100
    10 x -$110 = -$1,100
    ======
    0

    You are DEAD EVEN. This tells us that you have to win 11 out of 21 games
    to break even.

    What is the percentage?

    11 / 21 = 52.38%

    The point here: HEY STUPID, LAYING -1.10 YOU ONLY HAVE TO HIT 53% TO (basically) BREAK
    EVEN, 55% MAKES MONEY, AND 60% IS TERRIFIC!!!!! (Obviously if you are playing MLB money
    lines with big favorites you need to hit more.)

    The big problem, and the reason most guys need to hit 65% or 70% to make money
    is that they GO NUTS and bet on too many games, or vary their wagers too
    much and load up on certain games. Or, they pay TOUTS big bucks and must
    hit a huge percentage to make up the tout fees.

    THE FINAL MESSAGE: You have to grind out a profit with a solid money management
    plan. It's nearly impossible to start the season with a $500 bankroll and
    end the season with $5,000.
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