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2-1 last night, missed my total by half a run. Mets and Cardinals RL will most likely be my plays today, but I think the line will come down on both of those so no need to play them just yet. Most likely will play Mets/Padres Over, unless I decide to wait for Mets TT O.
Mets 10-3-1 Over on the Road in the first game of a series.
Over 9-2 L11 games on the Road started by DeGrom.
Mets have won their last 4 vs a lefty SP, outscoring their opponent by 22 runs, 3-0 L3 on the Road, outscoring them by 21.
Mets have won the last 8 times DeGrom has started.
Padres 7-2 L9 at Home vs a righty, Over 7-1-3 L11.
Padres 4-10 L14 when Richard starts.
Clayton Richard has lost his last 3 home starts, all went Over.
-----------------------------------------
Cardinals 3-7 in Mike Leake's L10 starts, Under 17-7 L24.
Cardinals 4-9 L13 at Home vs a righty.
Cardinals 19-5 L24 at Home vs the Rockies, Under 19-6 L25.
Rockies 11-2 Over L13 starts by Senzatela.
Rockies lost 0-10 at Home earlier this season when Senzatela started vs the Cardinals.
Rockies lost L3 Road games started by Senzatela.
Rockies 3-13 L16 on the Road.
Rockies 21-10 in the first game of a series.
Rockies 5-12 L17 vs a righty, 1-10 L11 on the Road.
-------------------------------------------
D-Backs were swept by Atlanta less than 2 weeks ago, I'm sure the D-Backs will be motivated.
D-Backs 20-11 in the first game of a series this season, 11-5 at Home.
Greinke 25-4 at Home after losing on the Road in his last start.
Greinke 15-4 L19 in the first game of a series, 42-18 career at Home in FGS.
D-Backs 7-0 L7 at Home when Greinke starts and 10-1 L11.
Braves 15-5 L20 in the first game of a series, 9-1 L10 on the Road.
Under 16-3-2 L21 in the FGS when RA Dickey starts, 6-0 L6 on the Road.
-----------------------------------------
Eduardo Rodriguez 2-0 vs Mariners winning 2-1 and 3-0.
Red Sox 10-3 L13 in the first game of a series.
Red Sox 12-1 L13 after losing 2 str8 games, 7-1 L8 on the Road.
Mariners 10-5 L15 in the first game of a series, 0-4 L4 at Home.
Mariners 11-2 Over L13 vs lefties.
Under 8-1 L9 in series, 7-1 L8 in Seattle.
-------------------------------------------
Over 11-3 L14 in series, 5-1 L6 in Detroit.
Royals 6-3 L9 in Detroit.
Royals have won their last 4 against a righty SP, scoring 34 runs.
Tigers lost their last 4 when Verlander started, 3-8 L11.
Pitching rematch of 5 days ago in KC, where the Royals won 4-3.
-------------------------------------------
SDQL 7/24
ALL = Yesterday 2-2 (Total 41-51)
SU = Yesterday 2-1 (Total 26-21)
OU = Yesterday 0-1 (Total 15-30)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Cubs are 22-0 SU in the first game of a series as a 140-plus favorite off a home game when playing a team that has a worse record and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Cubs and FGS and line<=-140 and p:H and WP > o:WP and AASB and date >= 20100726
PLAY: The Cubs are 20-0 SU in the first game of a series off a home game when their opponents starter has an ERA of higher than 3.55 on the season and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Cubs and FGS and p:H and o:STDSERA>3.55 and AASB and season >= 2014
FADE: The White Sox are 1-26 SU as a 155+ dog after a game in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base.
team = White Sox and line>155 and po:LOB < 10 and season >= 2011
FADE: The Braves are 0-16 SU as a dog of more than 130 in the first game of a series after they struck out their opponent at least ten times.
team = Braves and FGS and line > 130 and po:SO>=10 and season >= 2013
PLAY: The Blue Jays and D-Backs (1004-604 +11.6% ROI)
H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)
PLAY: The Phillies (195-131 +22.4% ROI)
H and -8 > (starter wins - starter losses + o:starter losses - o:starter wins) > -14 and day != Wednesday and day != Thursday and day != Friday and 6 > s:SRA > 0 and p:hits < 13 and total > 6.5 and (1.4 > STDSWHIP>1.1 or tA(runs) > 4.8)
PLAY: The Cardinals - Home Favorite in the NL with WP% below 50% vs a team with a WP% above 50%. (19-4 +49.1% ROI)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL
PLAY: The Orioles are 20-0 RL when visiting a divisional opponent that is ahead of them in the standings and they are not a 130-plus dog.
team = Orioles and A and line <130 and DIV and WP < o:WP and date >= 20130923
------------
OU
UNDER: Pirates/Giants (463-231 +25.8% ROI)
season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak > -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16 > op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11 and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors + pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and (op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors + opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)
________________
SU
Cubs
D-Backs
Blue Jays
Phillies
Cardinals
OU
Pirates/Giants Under
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
Monday Plays 7/24
»-Cardinals -1 -108
»-Mets RL +102
»-Mets/Padres Over 7.5 -108
»-Pirates/Giants Under 8 -103
___________________________
I could prolly wait and get better prices on those side plays, but since I'm playing them run line and they're not value plays to begin with, I'm not gonna fret over it.
The Cardinals plays is mostly a suspect line play. The Rockies have struggled bad on the road recently (3-13 L16), but this line seems off with Leake who hasn't been going too good himself his last few outings and a losing team being favored over a winning team by that much rings the alarms for me. Teams in the Cardinals spot being a losing team and favorites over a winning team are 19-4 L23 in the NL.
I like the Mets with DeGrom vs a lefty. Mets have won the last 8 times DeGrom has started while the Padres have are 4-10 L14 when Richard starts. I got a total projection of 8.2 which is good for my model for an Over and the trends point in that direction so I played that also.
Unders have been killing me since the all star break, I'm ahead in everything else, but I played the Pirates/Giants Under based mostly on that large sample SDQL trend above that has also done well recently and a Under projection with 7.6.
_________________________________
Small lean on the Royals and looking to throw the Cubs in a parlay.
PARLAY: $1.06 to win 1 unit
Athletics +143
Rays -119
Phillies +149
D-Backs -183
Mets -155
Cardinals -142
------------------------
PARLAY: $1.85 to win 1 unit
Red Sox/Mariners Under 8 -126
Twins/Dodgers Under 10 -138
Marlins/Rangers Over 10.5 -143
Braves/D-Backs Over 9 -129
Mets/Padres Over 7 -149
Pirates/Giants Under 8.5 -125
Does the difference between Kershaw/Greinke, Newcomb/Dickey, D-Backs OFF/Dodgers OFF, really make up a -200 difference, hahaha, NO!
The D-Backs line today is right on by my account of -182, but that -400 yesterday, wow! In retrospect, it seems they set it so high wanting people to have to take the -1.5 and convince others who weren't so sure, that at -400 it must be a sure thing, and many of those people probably also took the RL. I know I took the RL in the contest like a dummy. If I see another one like that, +1.5 it is.
I like these totals for TUESDAY, would love an extra half run in my favor when they are actually released, and a half run the other way would kill it. This is just going by model though, haven't done any other research.
Rockies/Cardinals Under 9
Orioles/Rays Under 9
Braves/D-Backs Over 9.5
Astro/Phillies Over 9.5
Athletics/Blue Jays Under 9.5
Red Sox/Mariners Under 8
Reds/Yankees Under 10.5
Mets/Padres Over 8.5
Brewers/Nationals Over 9.5
Royals/Tigers Over 9
Angels/Indians Over 10
I'm not really a live player but if I was I would take the Cubs live down 1 in bottom of 7th with 2 on and no outs, don't know what price is.
Was -185 right after I posted and now -150 with top of the order.
Edit: Now +105 with 2 outs, still would do it.
yikes, +365 now down 3-1, not that brave.
Tuesday Plays 7/25
»-Brewers +123
»-Tigers -1 -101
»-Orioles/Rays Under 9 -101
»-Athletics/Blue Jays Under 9.5 -108
»-Red Sox/Mariners Under 8 +102
»-Mets/Padres Over 8 -113
»-Royals/Tigers Over 8.5 -108
»-Angels/Indians Over 9.5 -108
»-Astro/Phillies Over 9.5 -108
»-Braves/D-Backs Over 9.5 -113
__________________________
Jumping on totals early today, tired of seeing the value gone by the time overnight hits. Also considering the Padres for tomorrow.
2 Additions for today.Originally Posted by FUqer
i'm with you on the royals! let's get 'em
Added two more plays, that's prolly it for tomorrow, unless I add the Padres or come across a really good SDQL trend. If any of those total lines gain a run at a good price, I may try to middle if it's worth it.
Monday Results 7/24
W - »-Cardinals -1 -108
W - »-Mets RL +102
W - »-Royals +129
L - »-Red Sox +138
W - »-Mets/Padres Over 7.5 -108
L - »-Pirates/Giants Under 8 -103
___________________________
Today = 4-2 = +2.28
___________________________
Bankroll = 2077 / 3000
___________________________
SDQL 7/25
ALL = Yesterday 3-3 (Total 44-54)
SU = Yesterday 3-2 (Total 29-23)
OU = Yesterday 0-1 (Total 15-31)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Indians are 22-0 SU as a 135-plus home favorite when they blew a lead in their starters last start and lost and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Indians and H and line<=-135 and s:L and s:BL > 0 and AASB and date >= 20100827
PLAY: The D-Backs (105-57 +9.8% ROI)
HF and line<-130 and line>-160 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10
FADE: The Braves (430-566 -12.6% ROI)
p:margin=-8
PLAY: The Astros (541-378 +10.0% ROI)
(p:margin = Maximum(margin@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200) and (p:BL = Maximum(BL@date)[date-1] and p:date=date-1 and p:margin>1 and SG<4 and conference=AL and op:runs<8 and line<200)
PLAY: The Cardinals (20-4 +50.2% ROI)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL
PLAY: The Yankees are 20-1 SU as a 140+ home favorite in the first game of a series after scoring 6+ runs.
team = Yankees and line<=-140 and HF and p:runs>=6 and FGS and date >= 20120430
------------
OU
UNDER: Angels/Indians (387-220 +20.8% ROI)
H and month > 5 and season>2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8>(s:SRA-os:SRA)>-4 and (p:hits + os:walks)<15 and month!=8 and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA<5 and 30.7>(p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP)>18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP)>19.4 and total>6.4 and pu margin>-6.6 and streak<5 and o:streak<6 and -8 < o
UNDER: The Cardinals are 0-14 OU in franchise history when Lance Lynn starts at home in July.
team = Cardinals and starter = Lance Lynn and H and month = 7
OVER: Both teams off of rest this season. (63-38-7 +18.0% ROI)
(Brewers/Nationals)
H and rest=1 and o:rest=1 and season=2017
________________
SU
Indians
D-Backs
Astros
Cardinals
Yankees
Tigers
OU
Angels/Indians Under
Rockies/Cardinals Under
Brewers/Nationals Over
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
Last edited by FUqer; 07-25-17 at 07:31 AM. Reason: Added Tigers
FADE: (The Royals) Teams on a 6 game win streak as a Road Dog are 1-12 L13, 4-17 since 2015 in the AL. They were also the last team in this spot and lost 9-0 to the Angels on June 17th.
streak=6 and AD and season>=2015 and conference=AL
SU: 4-17 (-2.00, 19.0%) avg line: 132.3 / -142.3 on / against: -$1,195 / +$1,158 ROI: -56.8% / +38.7%
ALL = -10.6% ROI (58-93) Both NL and AL
>2015 = -44.6% ROI (9-28) Both NL and AL
I got a good number on the Brewers yesterday, but got killed on the Astros Over line. I don't understand that one at all, I really want to get out of it now, lol, but I'm stuck.
Getting better, my friend! Keep it up!
Wednesday Plays 7/26
»-Brewers +119
»-Phillies +121
_________________________
Additions. Not really value plays, but I'm getting them in early anyway.
Boston ruined my 3rd str8 winning night when they let them tie it in the bottom of the 13th with 2 outs on a wild pitch.
Orioles are a system play >30% between +130 and +145 on Road Dogs.
SDQL 7/26
ALL = Yesterday 5-4 (Total 49-58)
SU = Yesterday 4-2 (Total 33-25)
OU = Yesterday 1-2 (Total 16-33)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
PLAY: The Giants (52-27 +19.3% ROI)
H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
FADE: The Nationals and Pirates (431-566 -12.4% ROI)
p:margin=-8
PLAY: The Brewers (38-36 +22.9% ROI)
AD and line>130 and line<150 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10
PLAY: The Cardinals (21-4 +51.4% ROI)
HF and WP<50 and o:WP>50 and date>=20170618 and conference=NL
PLAY: The Cardinals are 17-2 SU since May 15th, 2014 as a home favorite after a walk-off win.
team = Cardinals and HF and p:WOW and date >= 20140515
PLAY: The Indians are 15-0 SU when on a 5 game winning streak at Home as a Favorite.
team=Indians and streak=5 and HF
-----------
PLAY: The Orioles are 22-0 RL when visiting a divisional opponent that is ahead of them in the standings and they are not a 130-plus dog.
team = Orioles and A and line <130 and DIV and WP < o:WP and date >= 20130923
------------
OU
UNDER: The Royals are 0-11 OU in the last game of a series when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em off a game as a dog when they won by one run in their starters last start and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Royals and LGS and -120 <= line <= 120 and pand s:margin = 1 and AASB and date >= 20100822
________________
SU
Giants
Brewers
Cardinals
Indians
OU
Royals/Tigers Under
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
Added for 7/26
»-Mets/Padres Over 8.5 -108
Wednesday Results 7/26
L - »-Brewers +119
W - »-Phillies +121
W - »-Royals +107
P - »-Giants -1 +102
W - »-Cardinals -1 -114
W - »-Red Sox -1.5 -118
L - »-Orioles +140
W - »-Mets/Padres Over 8.5 -108
___________________________
Today = 5-2-1 = +3.28
___________________________
Bankroll = 2184 / 3000
___________________________
I was able to beat the closing line in all my plays, I crushed the Phillies and Cardinals -1 by about 40 cents.
I could of done without the last minute system play on the Orioles. It might be worth checking into on those contrarian plays that start at noon or 1 pm, they may not be heavily bet enough to properly make them contrarian. I should of known better betting on Ubaldo though, but I wanted some early action and it's been awhile since one of those system plays popped up and that's a very good system. The Brewers led 2-0 most of the way and gave up one bad inning to make it look like a beat down.
____________________________
So far for tomorrow I like the Marlins in a pitching rematch of 5 days ago in Cincy won my the Marlins, the Reds have gone cold vs lefties and the Marlins just scored 22. I also got a good trend Over trend for teams that score 15 or more on the road in the game before.
I like the Angels, but it would be hard to go against the Indians right now.
I like the Rays a little but the Yankees are 7-0 L7 vs the Rays when Sabathia starts, and the Rays are 1-7 L8 vs the Yankees when Archer starts and 0-4 L4 in NY.
I like the Padres a little, the Padres are 4-0 in Perdomo's L4 Home starts but the Mets starter looks pretty decent from the numbers I've seen.
I like the Over in the Rays/Yankkes game.
I like the Under in the Athletics/Blue Jays but the price would have to come down.
Trying to decide if the Under has value in the Cubs/White Sox or if the books are just taking a side.
Can you explain why you like the over in the TB/NYY game. I like the Under in the matchup. Past matchups between the 2 both pitchers have good numbers
Also do you see the TB/TOR staying at 9 for the Under or going down to 8 1/2 before game start. Trying to get the early line
Sorry, I'm just waking up. I get an Over projection TB/NYY and I don't get many per day and they do well, 19-7 since the break, so I always consider them. Yankees have a +80 OPS vs righties, Longoria has 9 homers off Sabathia, so those are a few factors. Not sure if I'm playing it yet tho, but the look to have come down from -113 to -108.
I would guess that the price on the Under 9 for OAK/TOR comes down, not sure if it will hit 8.5 though. I get a projection of 8.0, and it's one of those ones where people might look at the combined ERA and see their a lot lower than the total and jump on the Under. I don't know if I'll play that one due to the combined ERA factor, I like to go opposite of those sometimes as a contrarian play.
Not a very good small card, IMO.
SDQL 7/27
ALL = Yesterday 3-2 (Total 52-60)
SU = Yesterday 3-1 (Total 36-26)
OU = Yesterday 0-1 (Total 16-34)
Pre All-Star Break
ALL - (Total 441-346)
SU - (Total 223-171)
OU - (Total 218-185)
---------------------------------
SU
FADE: The Rays (33-71 -33.7% ROI)
A and tS(L, N=7)>=5 and 54>=WP>=51 and 54>o:WP>=51 and 2005<=season and line<=180 and SG<4
PLAY: The Nationals are 10-0 SU since Apr 12, 2015 when Max Scherzer starts when they lost in his last start in an afternoon game.
team = Nationals and starter=Max Scherzer and s:L and DAY and date >= 20150412
----------
PLAY: The Mets are 15-0 RL in the last game of a road series when their line is within 20 cents of pick-em after agame in which their starter did not go more than eight innings and their bullpen did not allow a run and it is after the All-Star break.
team = Mets and LGS and A and -120 <= line <= 120 and p:SIP<=8 and p:BPRA = 0 and AASB and date >= 20100721
-----------
OU
UNDER: The Blue Jays are 3-17-1 OU in not the first game of a series off a game as a favorite in which they hit multiple home runs since Aug 30, 2016.
team=Blue Jays and SG > 1 and p:F and p:HR>1 and date>=20160830
UNDER: The Angels are 3-17-2 OU since Jun 22, 2016 vs a team that has won at least their last four games.
team=Angels and o:streak>=4 and date>=20160622
UNDER: The Angels are 5-21-1 OU in the last game of a series as a dog when playing a team that has a better record - since Aug 07, 2016.
team=Angels and LGS and D and WP < o:WP and date>=20160807
________________
SU
Yankees
Nationals
Cardinals
OU
Athletics/Blue Jays Under
Angels/Indians Under
___________________________________
If you like these post, please take a minute to post your best underdog play for the day in this thread. https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...lb-2017-a.html
Last edited by FUqer; 07-27-17 at 09:53 AM. Reason: Added Cardinals, See Later Post
Thursday Plays 7/27
»-Marlins -1 -101
»-Rays/Yankees Over 8.5 -110
___________________________
Got the total in just in time this morning, on it's way back up. Looking at Angels, Blue Jays, Yankees.
Added the Yankees. They are 18-6 L24 at Home vs the Rays, 7-0 L7 vs the Rays when Sabathia starts and 7-1 L8 vs the Rays when Archer starts, and a nice trend above fading the the Rays. Their lineup is full of lefties built for their home ballpark so they don't hit left handed pitching too good.
Really want to take the Angels, I just can't bring myself to do it yet.
Tried to find something on them and only found trends against them.
Indians 11-1 L12 vs Angels, 9-0 L9 at Home.
Home Favs trying to complete the 3 game sweep are 8-1 L9, Indians 15-6 L21.
Angels 5-17 L22 as Road Dog when trying to avoid 3 game sweep.
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