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Cardinals/Rockies Article
The Rockies took Game 1. The Cardinals took Game 2. Read on to find out who will win the series finale at Coors Field with our MLB pick for May 28.
Cardinals vs Rockies
Introduction
Yadier Molina has been the most consistent hitter, coming into Sunday’s showdown, as he extended his hit streak to 16 games last night. But the story of this series has been the starting pitching. The four starters so far have allowed just a combined total of six earned runs. The two previous games have flown under the first five-inning run total. Can we expect more of the same from Lance Lynn and German Marquez?
The Starters
Lance Lynn is coming off arguably his best performance of the season, pitching eight innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers. But that performance came under significantly different conditions. 1) he pitched that game off of six days rest. His career ERA with as much rest is an insane 2.91 ERA. 2) he pitched that game at night. His career night-time ERA is a 2.90 ERA. 3) The Dodgers were an optimal match-up for Lynn, because they struggle most against finesse pitchers who induce a mixture of fly balls and ground balls, and because they have been slumping, managing just a .662 OPS (this is very low) in the past seven days.
The Rockies, however, are at their best against finesse pitchers, managing a .811 OPS (this is very high) against them, compared to just .702 against power pitchers. And their OPS is highest against fly ball/ground ball pitchers, .789, compared to just .749 against ground ball pitchers. They have also been hot, batting an insane .929 OPS in the past seven days. Lynn’s career ERA rises from 2.91 with six days rest to 3.32 with four days rest and from 2.90 at night to 4.48 at daytime. I expect an in-form Rockies lineup to hit Lynn hard, who is in a tough spot against a lineup that he matches up poorly against.
German Marquez seems to have figured things out: he has given up just two runs in his past nineteen innings. As a power pitcher he matches up optimally against the Cardinals—we saw this when Senzatela put forth his best career outing of the season two days ago. Against power pitchers the Cards’ OPS is just .652 compared to .765 against finesse pitchers. I don’t expect the Cards to turn these struggles around when they have been slumping against every kind of pitcher, as their OPS is just .612 in the past seven days. Marquez is also on an amazing run in daytime starts, as he is 3-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his first five day starts, compared to 1-3 with an 8.06 in four night starts. I expect an in-form Marquez to pitch well in the daytime against a cold Cardinals lineup that matches up poorly against him.
The Verdict:
The Rockies have the advantage in terms of starting pitching, because Marquez matches up significantly better vs the Cards than Lynn does vs the Rockies. They also have the advantage in terms of having a lineup in strong form. They also have the advantage in terms of bullpen. The Cards’ one consistent reliever, Trevor Rosenthal, threw 33 pitches last night, meaning that he will likely have to sit today’s game out, because the most pitches that he has thrown in a two-day stretch this season was only 27. Even with Rosenthal’s consistency, and despite throwing a relatively low number of innings, the Cards’ bullpen is statistically one of the worst in baseball,while the Rockies have one of the best bullpens. I am backing two plays today.
Free MLB Pick: Rockies -110 (best line offered: 5 Dimes). Cardinals TT under 5.5 (best line offered: Bet365)
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People get views on here because they've been here for a long time. I think you'll win more if you bet because of the reason for the pick and not because of who's giving it. 
Originally Posted by StLouisCards
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