[MJ4thQuarter92]

I'm just doing this thread to help me keep up with winnings/losings. I'm going to be using Heritage and moving totals .5 runs to get to positive odds. I won't place my bet until right before game time so that I get closing odds (for better or worse). Risking one unit for each play. You will see the same teams each day, but this IS NOT a chase. Not going into much more details. Time for the plays.

4/23

Rockies Over
Angels Over
Giants Over


I didn't list the total because, like I said, not betting it until game time. I will list total the next day when updating the record. The total I list should almost always be .5 off from Covers.com closing line totals.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

If two of the teams listed are playing each other, then I do bet one unit per team, so two units that game. Giants/Rockies is an example for today.

[BarstoolProphet]

Didnt see your doing just totals ,,my bad.

Reason for edit.

good luck

[Scrivero]

I of course tailed everything. I love the system. Wont reveal anymore about it than you either. Will backtest it though. Thanks for the picks!

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Adding Twins Over

[MJ4thQuarter92]

4/23 Results


Rockies o12 +110. LOSS
Giants o12 +110. LOSS

Angels o8.5 +110. LOSS
Twins o9 +130. WIN

1-3. -1.70u

Will be back at it tomorrow. Same teams as today, plus adding Brewers Under.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

4/24

Brewers Under
Twins Over
Rockies Over
Angels Over
Giants Over


Just to clarify, these are game totals; not team totals.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

4/24 Results

Brewers u8 +119. LOSS
Twins o10.5 +110. LOSS
Rockies o12 +110. PUSH
Angels o8 +102. LOSS
Giants o8 +102. LOSS

0-4-1. -4.00u
1-7-1. -5.70u

Very bad start...



4/25

Brewers Under
Twins Over
Royals Over
Cardinals Over
Rockies Over
Angels Over
Giants Over

[MJ4thQuarter92]

4/25 Results


Brewers u8.5 +110. LOSS
Twins o11 +118. LOSS
Royals o9 +102. WIN
Cardinals o8 +135. WIN
Rockies o10.5 +105. WIN
Angels o9 +130. LOSS
Giants o7 +127. LOSS

3-4. -0.58u

YTD: 4-11-1. -6.28 u


4/26 games

Brewers Under
Royals Over
Cubs Under
Rays Under
Twins Over
Cardinals Over
Rockies Over
Angels Over
Giants Over

[MJ4thQuarter92]

4/26 Results

Brewers u9 +122. LOSS
Royals o9 +125. LOSS
Cubs u8 +102. LOSS
Rays u8 +107. LOSS
Twins o9 +102. WIN
Cardinals POSTPONED
Rockies o11 +105. WIN
Angels o8 +110. WIN
Giants o7 +120. PUSH

3-4-1. -0.83u

YTD: 7-15-2. -7.11u


4/27 games

Cardinals Over
Rockies Over
Giants Over
Cardinals Over (they play twice)
Angels Over

[MJ4thQuarter92]

4/27 Results

Cardinals o8.5 +113. WIN
Rockies o11.5 +115. WIN
Giants o8.5 +111. LOSS
Cardinals o9.5 +119. WIN
Angels o9 +130. LOSS

3-2. +1.47u

YTD: 10-17-2. -5.64u


4/28 games

Rays Under
Cubs Under
Angels Over
Rangers Over
Cardinals Over
Twins Over
Royals Over
Giants Over
Rockies Over

[Scrivero]

I estimate that you will end the season with +25 units. Not jinxing, just got that feeling.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

I estimate that you will end the season with +25 units. Not jinxing, just got that feeling.

Thanks for the encouragement. It's coming

[MJ4thQuarter92]

4/28 Results


Rays u8 +102. LOSS
Cubs 8.5 +107. LOSS
Angels o10 +103. LOSS
Rangers o10 +103. LOSS
Cardinals o8.5 +116. WIN
Twins o8.5 +110. WIN
Royals o8.5 +110. WIN
Giants o8 +110. LOSS
Rockies o9.5 +105. LOSS

3-6. -2.64u

YTD: 13-23-2. -8.28u


4/29 games

Rays Under
Cardinals Over
Cubs Under
Brewers Under
Angels Over
Rangers Over
Twins Over
Royals Over
Rockies Over
Giants Over

[MJ4thQuarter92]

4/29 Results

Rays u7.5 +107. WIN
Cardinals over. PPD
Cubs u10 +117. LOSS
Brewers u8.5 +114. LOSS
Angels o8.5 +105. WIN
Rangers o8.5 +105. WIN
Twins over. PPD
Royals over. PPD
Rockies o9.5 +119. WIN
Giants o8 +100. WIN

5-2. +3.36u

YTD: 18-25-2. -4.92u


4/30 games

Rays Under
Brewers Under
Cardinals Under
Twins Over
Royals Over
Angels Over
Rangers Over
Giants Over
Rockies Over
Cubs Under

[Scrivero]

Aaaaaand we're on the way up.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

I hope so. Going down over 8 units in the first week was frustrating, but good for me. I told myself, when I started this, that I was going to be patient with it. I've definitely been tested so far, but being patient has led me to find different ways to make this work rather than giving up on it and trying something else. I sort of believe that's the problem with many systems. They're not given a long enough chance. I've thrown away several system that were probably great, had I been patient and put effort into coming up with ways to make them work.

Rant over. BOL to us. Pretty sure we are the only two people who even know of this thread...

[MJ4thQuarter92]

4/30 Results


Rays u7 +120. WIN
Brewers u8.5 +125. WIN
Cardinals o9 +120. PUSH
Twins o9.5 +115. WIN
Royals o9.5 +115. WIN
Angels o9.5 +110.LOSS
Rangers o9.5 +110. LOSS
Giants o8.5 +105. LOSS
Rockies o11 +120. LOSS
Cubs u8.5 +102. WIN

5-4-1. +1.77u

YTD: 23-29-3. -3.15u


5/1 games

Red Sox Over
Rays Under
Cubs Under
Rangers Over
Brewers Under
Royals Over
Giants Over

[Scrivero]

I hope so. Going down over 8 units in the first week was frustrating, but good for me. I told myself, when I started this, that I was going to be patient with it. I've definitely been tested so far, but being patient has led me to find different ways to make this work rather than giving up on it and trying something else. I sort of believe that's the problem with many systems. They're not given a long enough chance. I've thrown away several system that were probably great, had I been patient and put effort into coming up with ways to make them work.

Rant over. BOL to us. Pretty sure we are the only two people who even know of this thread...

Patience is indeed really hard to keep when one goes 8 units down in a few days. I too have lacked patience with most of the systems Ive had. Although I think its good to not have too much patience with totally new or totally untested systems. One can then think of a new one that would do even better. To improve the system that seems to fail.

Another +night, niceeeee.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

5/1 Results

Red Sox o9 +116. LOSS
Rays u7.5 +105. WIN
Cubs u9.5 +110. LOSS
Rangers o9 +110. LOSS
Brewers u7 +109. LOSS
Rangers o9 +120. LOSS
Giants o6.5 +105. WIN

2-5. -2.90u

YTD: 25-34-3. -6.05u


5/2 games

Red Sox Over
Rays Under
Cubs Under
Twins Over
Rangers Over
Royals Over
Brewers Under
Rockies Over
Angels Over
Giants Over

[MJ4thQuarter92]

5/2 Results

Red Sox o9.5 +120. LOSS
Rays u7.5 +108. WIN
Cubs u7 +103. LOSS
Rangers o10 +112. WIN
Twins o9 +128. WIN
Royals o 7.5 +105. LOSS
Brewers u7 +134. WIN
Angels o7.5 +128. WIN
Rockies o7.5 +105. WIN
Giants o8 +105. WIN

7-3. +5.20u

YTD: 32-36-3. -0.85u



5/3 games

Red Sox Over
Rays Under
Cubs Under
Rangers Over
Brewers Under
Royals Over
Angels Over
Giants Over (2X)

Notice that I put a 2X beside of Giants Over. That will be a 2 unit bet.

[Scrivero]

Niceeeeee.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

5/3 Results


Red Sox o9 +102. LOSS
Rays u8 +102. LOSS
Cubs u6.5 +110. LOSS
Rangers o8.5 +100. WIN
Brewers PPD
Royals o8 +105. LOSS
Angels o8.5 +110. WIN
Giants o8 +115. LOSS (2x)

2-5. -3.90u

YTD: 34-41-3. -4.75u

5/4 games

Rangers Over
Royals Over
Cubs Under
Red Sox Over
Rays Under
Brewers Under

[MJ4thQuarter92]

5/4 Results


Rangers o9 +110. WIN
Royals o7.5 +105. WIN
Cubs u6.5 +105. LOSS
Red Sox o10 +105. WIN
Rays u8 +110. WIN
Brewers u7 +110. LOSS

4-2. +2.30u

YTD: 38-43-3. -2.45u


5/5 games

Cubs Under
Giants Over 2x
Brewers Under 2x
Rays Under
Red Sox Over
Royals Over
Rangers Over

[Scrivero]

Staying close to +-0. Lets see when it starts going to ++++.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

I've thought the same thing. It may not be until the 2x bets start hitting before I'm there.

[Scrivero]

I've thought the same thing. It may not be until the 2x bets start hitting before I'm there.

Agreed. And I would say that its totally fine like that too because the 2x bets are there for a reason as they "should" hit more often than the 1x bets. Hence, the more 2x bets you get to make while the record still stays at around +-0 the better. Its not a chase as such but the possible profit and BR movement is/should be similar to a chase where the BR could go quite a bit minus before one win brings it up again a lot with the chase plays hitting.

Pretty awesome/promising that its at ca +-0 with already two 2x bets around. Really loving the promise of this system. Loving it a lot.

By the way, I will now start tailing those 2x bets. Have not tailed the 1x bets yet. People who are unsure whether to tail or not could start with those too.

[Scrivero]

3-4 I think? With both 2x bets hitting so thats probably profit again for the evening.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

5/5 Results

Cubs u6.5 +105. WIN
Giants o9.5 +110. WIN (2x)
Brewers u8 +110. WIN (2x)
Rays u7 +120. LOSS
Red Sox o10 +115. LOSS
Royals o9 +120. LOSS
Rangers o7.5 +100. LOSS

3-4. +1.45u

YTD: 41-47-3. -1.00u.

The Rays weren't even supposed to be on 5/5's list, so that's one loss that shouldn't be there. That's a typical MJ mistake right there, dammit.

I'm going to start keeping up with 2x performance separately. Like Scrivero said, they should hit more often.

2x Results: 2-1. +2.10u


5/6 games

Red Sox Over
Royals Over
Brewers Under (2x)
Giants Over (2x)
Cubs Under
Rangers Over

[MJ4thQuarter92]

3-4 I think? With both 2x bets hitting so thats probably profit again for the evening.

Yep, but should have been 3-3. Rays shouldn't have been played. That leaves me at -1u for the season. I should be +-0 dammit lol

And yea, I've thought about tracking the 1x but only betting when/if it gets to 2x. There would be much less action, but that leads to higher ROI%. It's just that I expect 1x stuff to do better than it has so far. Then again, this is baseball, not NBA; which is where this thrived.

[Scrivero]

Yep, but should have been 3-3. Rays shouldn't have been played. That leaves me at -1u for the season. I should be +-0 dammit lol

And yea, I've thought about tracking the 1x but only betting when/if it gets to 2x. There would be much less action, but that leads to higher ROI%. It's just that I expect 1x stuff to do better than it has so far. Then again, this is baseball, not NBA; which is where this thrived.

Ya that happens Definitely like the action. Of course more variance but yea it could also swing to the positive with the 1x already.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

5/6 Results

Red Sox o9.5 +105. WIN
Royals o9 +115. LOSS
Brewers u7.5 +100. WIN (2x)
Giants o9.5 +120. WIN (2x)
Cubs u7.5 +105. LOSS
Rangers o9 +104. WIN

4-2. +4.49u

YTD: 45-49-3. +3.49u

2x Results: 4-1. +6.50u


5/7 games

Brewers Under (2x)
Red Sox Over
Giants Over (2x)
Cubs Under (2x)

[Scrivero]

Beautiful!

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Beautiful!

Indeed. 45-49-3 for +3.49 units. That's 3.6% ROI. I like the number being there because, long term, it's impossible to keep ROI above 20% (10% really). So, sitting at 3.6%, I know I can still do better. If I were currently 25% ROI or something, it could really only get worse from there.

What I'm saying is so far, so good. I would like for the system to perform almost exactly like it has this session. This session should end in around 10 days. Session #2 will pick up May 19th

[Scrivero]

Indeed. 45-49-3 for +3.49 units. That's 3.6% ROI. I like the number being there because, long term, it's impossible to keep ROI above 20% (10% really). So, sitting at 3.6%, I know I can still do better. If I were currently 25% ROI or something, it could really only get worse from there.

What I'm saying is so far, so good. I would like for the system to perform almost exactly like it has this session. This session should end in around 10 days. Session #2 will pick up May 19th

Great stuff and good thoughts. A question: Have you noticed any big line movement on your O/U plays (with the odds or with the actual O/U "number")? That is would one usually get better odds betting those games already when you post the plays or closer to the games starting? Would be interesting (but timetaking) to track, would definitely have a small impact on the ROI in the long run if there is something significant.